-尊龙游戏旗舰厅官网

��ࡱ�>�� u �r��|bjbj�n�n2~��a��a�p ��""��8�d]��qlyyyyy��p�p�p�p�p�p�p$s��uf�pi��p��yy4rq��"�y�y�p��p��y��0��9��4��phq0�q�v:v��/v�[mt��p�p=h��q��v��"qs: risk analysis volume 42, issue 1, january 2022 1. title: effectiveness of emergent ad hoc coordination groups in public health emergencies authors: yushim kim, kangbae lee, seong soo oh, heejin park abstract: whether emergent groups positively or negatively influence a disaster response remains inconclusive in the literature. we analyzed the effect of an emergent group on two interorganizational networks for information communication and resource coordination during a public health emergency response. using the 2015 middle east respiratory syndrome (mers) coronavirus in korea as a study case, we identified an ad hoc entity that appeared in both networks. this emergent group, which consists of government officials and public health specialists, directed and coordinated organizations at the center of the response networks. we found that the emergent group positively contributed to efficient information communication but had no effect on the resource network's efficiency. our interpretation is that the ad hoc entity was filling relational gaps in the information network, but was redundant in the resource network. 2. title: assessing the impacts of covid-19 on the industrial sectors and economy of china authors: ling tan, xianhua wu, ji guo, ernesto d.r. santibanez-gonzalez abstract: since december 2019, the covid-19 epidemic has been spreading continuously in china and many countries in the world, causing widespread concern among the whole society. to cope with the epidemic disaster, most provinces and cities in china have adopted prevention and control measures such as home isolation, blocking transportation, and extending the spring festival holiday, which has caused a serious impact on china's output of various sectors, international trade, and labor employment, ultimately generating great losses to the chinese economic system in 2020. but how big is the loss? how can we assess this for a country? at present, there are few analyses based on quantitative models to answer these important questions. in the following, we describe a quantitative-based approach of assessing the potential impact of the covid-19 epidemic on the economic system and the sectors taking china as the base case. the proposed approach can provide timely data and quantitative tools to support the complex decision-making process that government agencies (and the private sector) need to manage to respond to this tragic epidemic and maintain stable economic development. based on the available data, this article proposes a hypothetical scenario and then adopts the computable general equilibrium (cge) model to calculate the comprehensive economic losses of the epidemic from the aspects of the direct shock on the output of seriously affected sectors, international trade, and labor force. the empirical results show that assuming a gdp growth rate of 4�8% in the absence of covid-19, gdp growth in 2020 would be -8.77 to -12.77% after the covid-19. companies and activities associated with transportation and service sectors are among the most impacted, and companies and supply chains related to the manufacturing subsector lead the economic losses. finally, according to the calculation results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: disaster recovery for key sectors such as the labor force, transportation sector, and service sectors should be enhanced; disaster emergency rescue work in highly sensitive sectors should be carried out; in the long run, precise measures to strengthen the refined management of disaster risk with big data resources and means should be taken. 3. title: comparative study of government response measures and epidemic trends for covid-19 global pandemic authors: chenyang wang, hui zhang, yang gao, qing deng abstract: the ongoing novel coronavirus (covid-19) epidemic has evolved into a full range of challenges that the world is facing. health and economic threats caused governments to take preventive measures against the spread of the disease. this study aims to provide a correlation analysis of the response measures adopted by countries and epidemic trends since the covid-19 outbreak. this analysis picks 13 countries for quantitative assessment. we select a trusted model to fit the epidemic trend curves in segments and catch the characteristics based on which we explore the key factors of covid-19 spread. this review generates a score table of government response measures according to the likert scale. we use the delphi method to obtain expert judgments about the government response in the likert scale. furthermore, we find a significant negative correlation between the epidemic trend characteristics and the government response measure scores given by experts through correlation analysis. more stringent government response measures correlate with fewer infections and fewer waves in the infection curves. stringent government response measures curb the spread of covid-19, limit the number of total infectious cases, and reduce the time to peak of total cases. the clusters of the results categorize the countries into two specific groups. this study will improve our understanding of the prevention of covid-19 spread and government response. 4. title: it's politics, isn't it? investigating direct and indirect influences of political orientation on risk perception of covid-19 authors: youngkee ju, myoungsoon you abstract: public response to the covid-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to study risk perception in relation to political orientation. we tested a risk perception model of how political orientation influences risk perception of an emerging infectious disease and how it moderates other influences. two nationwide online surveys in south korea (n = 2,000) revealed that conservatives showed a higher risk perception regarding an emerging infectious disease, and political orientation can even moderate the influence of perceived risk characteristics on risk perception such as how a liberal orientation exhibited a greater outrage effect of perceived unfairness on covid-19 risk perception. also, the frequency of media use is positively related to higher risk perception. the implications of the direct and moderating effects of political orientation are discussed in the context of the studies of political orientation as well as risk perception. 5. title: a pandemic risk perception scale authors: kelmara mendes vieira, ani caroline grigion potrich, aureliano angel bressan, leander luiz klein, breno augusto diniz pereira, nelson guilherme machado pinto abstract: we propose a pandemic risk perception scale. our scale comprises two constructs, dread risk and personal exposure, divided into five dimensions: infection risk, emotional health risk, health system risk,financial risk, and alimentary risk. using multidimensional item response theory, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling on two samples of respondents, our results show that alimentary risk, health system risk, and emotional health risk are the main dimensions of risk perception for the covid-19 pandemic. furthermore, infection risk has a minor impact on the pandemic's risk perception, suggesting the presence of different dynamics between personal and general risk perceptions for the covid-19 pandemic. 6. title: evaluating the preparedness of indian states against covid-19 pandemic risk: a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach authors: sudipa choudhury, abhijit majumdar, apu kumar saha, prasenjit majumdar abstract: the preparedness of indian states and union territories (uts) against the covid-19 pandemic has been evaluated. ten parameters related to demographic, socioeconomic, and healthcare aspects have been considered and the performances of 27 states and three uts have been evaluated applying the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. opinions of medical experts have been considered to ascertain the relative importance of decision criteria as well as subcriteria. the scores of various states and uts in each of the decision subcriteria have been calculated by using the secondary data collected from authentic sources. it is found that kerala and bihar are the best prepared and worst prepared states, respectively, to combat covid-19 pandemic. karnataka, goa, and tamil nadu have very good preparedness whereas chhattisgarh, jharkhand, and bihar have very poor preparedness. maharashtra, the most affected state in india, has average preparedness. as around 650 million people are vulnerable due to the poor and very poor preparedness of their states, the country needs to make region specific mitigation strategies to combat the covid-19 pandemic and the preparedness map will be helpful in that direction. 7. title: increasing preparedness for extreme events using plausibility-based scenario planning: lessons from covid-19 authors: james derbyshire abstract: a striking feature of covid-19 is many countries� low level of preparedness for it, despite pandemics being a known threat. this raises a question as to the reasons for this underpreparedness. while preparedness should have better reflected pandemics� long-run inevitability and potentially catastrophic impact, government-planning horizons are short term, and the attentiveness of policymakers is bounded and subject to multiple demands. preparedness is therefore affected by the fundamental uncertainty surrounding the exact nature, timing, and impact of a pandemic. while a subjective probability is attributable to such an event's occurrence, just like it is any other, if founded on scant knowledge and perceived as being low it may inhibit preparedness. under such circumstances, preparedness may be better served by a focus on plausibility. moreover, any tendency for policymakers to disregard highly uncertain, low-probability, yet highly impactful events of this type is exacerbated by their �fat-tailed� distribution, which obscures their potential extremity. this article considers how plausibility-based scenario planning can increase preparedness for extreme events like a global pandemic, thereby reducing overconfidence in continued business-as-usual in their face, and emphasizing precaution in their wake. in so doing, the article contributes to what in this journal has recently been called �type b,� �generic and fundamental� risk science, which is concerned with identifying better ways to present and communicate uncertainties. in focusing on plausibility-based scenario planning, the article highlights a method seldom previously discussed in relation to risk science, yet one that can contribute much to this type b component of it. 8. title: integrating risk assessment and decision-making methods in analyzing the dynamics of covid-19 epidemics in davao city, mindanao island, philippines authors: gernelyn logrosa, may anne mata, zython paul lachica, leo manuel esta�a, maureen hassall abstract: the covid-19 pandemic has become a public health crisis in the philippines and the attention of national and local health authorities is focused on managing the fluctuating covid-19 cases. this study presents a method that integrates risk management tools into health care decision-making processes to enhance the understanding and utilization of risk-based thinking in public health decision making. the risk assessment consists of the identification of the key risk factors of the covid-19 contagion via bow-tie diagrams. second, the safety controls for each risk factor relevant to the davao city context are taken into account and are identified as barriers in the bow-tie. after which, the prioritization of the identified covid-19 risks, as well as the effectiveness of the proposed interventions, is performed using the analytic hierarchy process. consequently, the dynamics of covid-19 management initiatives were explored using these priorities and a system of ordinary differential equations. our results show that reducing the number of covid-19 fatalities should be the top priority of the health authorities. in turn, we predict that the covid-19 contagion can be controlled and eliminated in davao city in three-month time after prioritizing the fatalities. in order to reduce the covid-19 fatalities, health authorities should ensure an adequate number of covid-ready icu facilities. the general public, on the other hand, should follow medical and science-based advice and suspected and confirmed covid-19 patients should strictly follow isolation protocols. overall, an informed decision-making is necessary to avoid the unwanted consequences of an uncontrolled contagion. 9. title: effective lockdown and role of hospital-based covid-19 transmission in some indian states: an outbreak risk analysis authors: tridip sardar, sourav rana abstract: several reports in india indicate hospitals and quarantined centers are covid-19 hotspots. to study the transmission occurring from the hospitals and as well as from the community, we developed a mechanistic model with a lockdown effect. using daily covid-19 cases data from six states and overall india, we estimated several important parameters of our model. moreover, we provided an estimation of the effective (rt), the basic (r0), the community (rc), and the hospital (rh) reproduction numbers. we forecast covid-19 notified cases from may 3, 2020, till may 20, 2020, under five different lockdown scenarios in the seven locations. our analysis suggests that 65% to 99% of the new covid-19 cases are currently asymptomatic in those locations. besides, about 1 16% of the total covid-19 transmission are currently occurring from hospital-based contact and these percentage can increase up to 69% in some locations. furthermore, the hospital-based transmission rate (�2) has significant positive (0.65 to 0.8) and negative (-0.58 to -0.23) correlation with r0 and the effectiveness of lockdown, respectively. therefore, a much larger covid-19 outbreak may trigger from the hospital-based transmission. in most of the locations, model forecast from may 3, 2020, till may 20, 2020, indicates a two-times increase in cumulative cases in comparison to total observed cases up to april 29, 2020. based on our results, we proposed a containment policy that may reduce the threat of a larger covid-19 outbreak in the future. 10. title: prioritizing multidimensional interdependent factors influencing covid-19 risk authors: abroon qazi, mecit can emre simsekler, barbara gaudenzi abstract: covid-19 has significantly affected various industries and domains worldwide. since such pandemics are considered as rare events, risks associated with pandemics are generally managed through reactive approaches, which involve seeking more information about the severity of the pandemic over time and adopting suitable strategies accordingly. however, policy-makers at a national level must devise proactive strategies to minimize the harmful impacts of such pandemics. in this article, we use a country-level data-set related to humanitarian crises and disasters to explore critical factors influencing covid-19 related hazard and exposure, vulnerability, lack of coping capacity, and the overall risk for individual countries. the main contribution is to establish the relative importance of multidimensional factors associated with covid-19 risk in a probabilistic network setting. this study provides unique insights to policy-makers regarding the identification of critical factors influencing covid-19 risk and their relative importance in a network setting. 11. title: quantifying sars-cov-2 infection risk within the google/apple exposure notification framework to inform quarantine recommendations authors: amanda m. wilson, nathan aviles, james i. petrie, paloma i. beamer, zsombor szabo, michelle xie, janet mcillece, yijie chen, young-jun son, sameer halai, tina white, kacey c. ernst, joanna masel abstract: most early bluetooth-based exposure notification apps use three binary classifications to recommend quarantine following sars-cov-2 exposure: a window of infectiousness in the transmitter, e"15 minutes duration, and bluetooth attenuation below a threshold. however, bluetooth attenuation is not a reliable measure of distance, and infection risk is not a binary function of distance, nor duration, nor timing. we model uncertainty in the shape and orientation of an exhaled virus-containing plume and in inhalation parameters, and measure uncertainty in distance as a function of bluetooth attenuation. we calculate expected dose by combining this with estimated infectiousness based on timing relative to symptom onset. we calibrate an exponential dose�response curve based on infection probabilities of household contacts. the probability of current or future infectiousness, conditioned on how long postexposure an exposed individual has been symptom-free, decreases during quarantine, with shape determined by incubation periods, proportion of asymptomatic cases, and asymptomatic shedding durations. it can be adjusted for negative test results using bayes' theorem. we capture a 10-fold range of risk using six infectiousness values, 11-fold range using three bluetooth attenuation bins, <"sixfold range from exposure duration given the 30 minute duration cap imposed by the google/apple v1.1, and <"11-fold between the beginning and end of 14 day quarantine. public health authorities can either set a threshold on initial infection risk to determine 14-day quarantine onset, or on the conditional probability of current and future infectiousness conditions to determine both quarantine and duration. 12. title: sharing knowledge to an entrant for production investment confronting covid-19: incentive alignment and lose�lose dilemma authors: baozhuang niu, zhipeng dai, qiyang li abstract: facing the urgent demand of medical devices for covid-19 treatment, many automakers have recently begun manufacturing ventilators, even though they are inefficient in production and uninformed of demand variability. to help them, some incumbent ventilator manufacturers have chosen to share knowledge, such as production techniques and demand information. clearly, the incumbent ventilator manufacturers are fulfilling social responsibility, but is their knowledge sharing rewarding, especially when the automakers are entrant rivals? if possible, are win�win situations in the sense of social responsibility and firms� profitability identifiable? in this work, we develop a game-theoretic model in which an incumbent and an entrant ventilator manufacturer engage in two-dimensional competition in production investment and sales volume. we examine the incumbent manufacturer's profitability with and without knowledge sharing by formulating the tradeoffs among supply expansion, intensified competition, and the entrant's production efficiency improvement and demand variance reduction. we identify both �win-win� and �lose-lose� situations for the two competing manufacturers. specifically, we find that free knowledge could be harmful for the entrant manufacturer, but the incumbent manufacturer benefits from knowledge sharing when market competition is intense, or when market competition is mild but the production investment efficiency varies. 13. title: optimal investment in prevention and recovery for mitigating epidemic risks authors: c. derrick huang, milad baghersad, ravi s. behara, christopher w. zobel abstract: "),./02:;��ʻʪʘ��um`rk=r0hj�5�ojqj^jo(h��h��5�ojqj^jh��h��h�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h��h��5�cjojqj^jaj h��5�cjojqj^jajo(h��5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h��h��5�cjojqj^jaj/01��mn� ,-��5� � !�!�$�$��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4��klmnoqwx�� *��귩��un`�pun`�punch�n h�n ojqj^jhvi�h�l$5�ojqj^jo(h�n h�n 5�ojqj^jh�n h�n h�l$h�l$5�ojqj^jh�l$5�ojqj^jo(hj�5�ojqjo(hiht4ojqj^jo(h��hj�ojqj^jo(h��h��ojqj^jht45�ojqj^jo(hicy5�ojqj^jh��h��5�ojqj^jh��h��h�"�hu<�5�ojqj^j* ,-./067��˽��˃��˃��vh[�n@h�"�h%j,5�ojqj^jhs/�5�ojqj^jo(h!d�hanojqj^jh!d�hto�ojqj^jo(h!d�h!d�ojqj^jhvi�hto�5�ojqj^jo(h!d�h!d�5�ojqj^jh!d�h!d�hto�hto�5�ojqj^jhto�hto�h�"�h�`�5�ojqj^jhto�5�ojqj^jo(h%j,5�ojqjo(hihu<�ojqj^jo(h�n h�l$ojqj^jo(�� 345>?� � � � � � � � !! !(!��ͽ��ͽ�겤��~pb[m~?bhvi�h�ps5�ojqj^jh�h�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(h}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h�;�h�;�ojqj^jh�;�h�;�ojqj^jh�;�h�;�ojqj^jo(h�;�h�;�o(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�;�h�;�h�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh[h�s�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h�;�h�;�5�ojqj^j�r�r"s#s$s,s-srsssts]s^sy y yy yyyyaybycykyly��봤��{mb�t�m?��mh�uh�u5�ojqj^jh�uh�uh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�~�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(hih)w�ojqj^jo(hj8hj8ojqj^jh$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�9�h[5�ojqj^jh�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh[h�s�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(hj8hj85�ojqj^jhj8hj8$sts yycy�y�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|��gd�gd)w�gd�s�ly�y�y�y�y�yx�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|�|��ž��zrnrnrnrnzh �jh �uhj<hj<5�ojqjo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(h�uh)w�ojqj^jo(h�uh�uojqj^juh�uh�uh$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh�uh�u5�ojqj^jthe worldwide healthcare and economic crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic highlights the need for a deeper understanding of investing in the mitigation of epidemic risks. to address this, we built a mathematical model to optimize investments into two types of measures for mitigating the risks of epidemic propagation: prevention/containment measures and treatment/recovery measures. the new model explicitly accounts for the characteristics of networks of individuals, as a critical element of epidemic propagation. subsequent analysis shows that, to combat an epidemic that can cause significant negative impact, optimal investment in either category increases with a higher level of connectivity and intrinsic loss, but it is limited to a fraction of that total potential loss. however, when a fixed and limited mitigation investment is to be apportioned among the two types of measures, the optimal proportion of investment for prevention and containment increases when the investment limit goes up, and when the network connectivity decreases. our results are consistent with existing studies and can be used to properly interpret what happened in past pandemics as well as to shed light on future and ongoing events such as covid-19. 01�82p��. ��a!�"�#��$��%��s��s2�� 0@p`p��2(�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p��8x�v~�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@pj_hmh nhsh thj`��jck�e$1$a$ cjkh_hajmh nhsh th$a ��$؞��k=�w[sobi��bnf�h�&��ŝ�]�6��ҩ��n=��in��a7��qb&>!"�h [�� lx�z)��w�v�og�%�ţ|8mă#�/��8��'��=��q�u*��c�`c�w{�d6��/�[��yl��%�� n� {�\�o�sm�/�~��i�bcax��/=xe��'5��&\�h�4da��,ye\}�)�l�a��r�^��*�z��y�v-wowz�n�]��:m�v�=t�c��w��r�b��*i�v�u�r��u��|�nc`�|��*^��pk! 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