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��ࡱ�>�� qs����p��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �r��@bjbjqq2zeex8 ���������00000����ddd8|d�$d�n4�����.f rn n n n n n n$�o�ur:dn0z..zzdn00��4yn���zb0�0�n�zn��������p ��d��� non0�n��r>r�r��n/�r0�k4zz�zzzzzdndn��zzz�nzzzz���������������������������������������������������������������������rzzzzzzzzz� �: the american economic review volume 101, issue 6, oct. 2011 1. title: searching and learning by trial and error authors:  hyperlink "javascript:__dolinkpostback('','ss~~ar "callander, steven"||sl~~rl','');" \o "search for callander, steven" callander, steven abstract: i study a dynamic model of trial-and-error search in which agents do not have complete knowledge of how choices are mapped into outcomes. agents learn about the mapping by observing the choices of earlier agents and the outcomes that are realized. the key novelty is that the mapping is represented as the realized path of a brownian motion. i characterize for this environment the optimal behavior each period as well as the trajectory of experimentation and learning through time. applied to new product development, the model shares features of the data with the well-known product life cycle. 2. title: trends in quality-adjusted skill premia in the united states, 1960-2000 authors: carneiro, pedro; lee, sokbae abstract: this paper presents new evidence that increases in college enrollment lead to a decline in the average quality of college graduates between 1960 and 2000, resulting in a decrease of 6 percentage points in the college premium. a standard demand and supply framework can qualitatively account for the trend in the college and age premia over this period, but substantial quantitative adjustments are needed to account for changes in quality. 3. title: nudging farmers to use fertilizer: theory and experimental evidence from kenya authors: duflo, esther; kremer, michael; robinson, jonathan abstract: we model farmers as facing small fixed costs of purchasing fertilizer and assume some are stochastically present biased and not fully sophisticated about this bias. such farmers may procrastinate, postponing fertilizer purchases until later periods, when they may be too impatient to purchase fertilizer. consistent with the model, many farmers in western kenya fail to take advantage of apparently profitable fertilizer investments, but they do invest in response to small, time-limited discounts on the cost of acquiring fertilizer (free delivery) just after harvest. calibration suggests that this policy can yield higher welfare than either laissez-faire policies or heavy subsidies. 4. title: aggregation and the ppp puzzle in a sticky-price model authors: carvalho, carlos; nechio, fernanda abstract: we study the purchasing power parity (ppp) puzzle in a multisector, two-country, sticky-price model. sectors differ in the extent of price stickiness, leading to heterogeneous sectoral real exchange rate dynamics. deviations from ppp are more volatile and persistent than in an otherwise identical one-sector world economy with the same average frequency of price changes. under the empirical distribution of price stickiness of the us economy, the model produces ppp deviations with a half-life of 39 months. we provide a structural interpretation of the approaches found in the empirical literature on aggregation and ppp, and reconcile its apparently conflicting findings. 5. title: private monitoring and communication in cartels: explaining recent collusive practices authors: harrington, joseph e; skrzypacz, andrzej abstract: motivated by recent cartel practices, a stable collusive agreement is characterized when firms' prices and quantities are private information. conditions are derived whereby an equilibrium exists in which firms truthfully report their sales and then make transfers within the cartel based on these reports. the properties of this equilibrium fit well with the cartel agreements in a number of markets including citric acid, lysine, and vitamins. 6. title: international prices, costs, and markup differences authors: gopinath, gita; gourinchas, pierre-olivier; hsieh, chang-tai; li, nicholas abstract: relative cross-border retail prices, in a common currency, comove closely with the nominal exchange rate. using product-level prices and wholesale costs from a grocery chain operating in the united states and canada, we decompose this variation into relative costs and markup components. the high correlation of nominal and real exchange rates is driven mainly by changes in relative costs. national borders segment markets. retail prices respond to changes in costs in neighboring stores within the same country but not across the border. prices have a median discontinuous change of 24 percent at the border and 0 percent at state boundaries. 7. title: the nature of credit constraints and human capital authors: lochner, lance j; monge-naranjo, alexander abstract: we develop a human capital model with borrowing constraints explicitly derived from government student loan (gsl) programs and private lending under limited commitment. the model helps explain the persistent strong positive correlation between ability and schooling in the united states, as well as the rising importance of family income for college attendance. it also explains the increasing share of undergraduates borrowing the gsl maximum and the rise in student borrowing from private lenders. our framework offers new insights regarding the interaction of government and private lending, as well as the responsiveness of private credit to economic and policy changes. 8. title: risk matters: the real effects of volatility shocks authors: fern�ndez-villaverde, jes�s; guerr�n-quintana, pablo; rubio-ram�rez, juan f; uribe, martin abstract: we show how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow have an important effect on variables like output, consumption, investment, and hours. we start by documenting the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by four emerging economies: argentina, brazil, ecuador, and venezuela. we estimate a stochastic volatility process for real interest rates. then, we feed this process in a standard small open economy business cycle model. we find that an increase in real interest rate volatility triggers a fall in output, consumption, investment, hours, and debt. 9. title: the potential of social identity for equilibrium selection authors: chen, roy; chen, yan abstract: when does a common group identity improve efficiency in coordination games?? to answer this question, we propose a group-contingent social preference model and derive conditions under which social identity changes equilibrium selection. we test our predictions in the minimum-effort game in the laboratory under parameter configurations which lead to an inefficient low-effort equilibrium for subjects with no group identity. for those with a salient group identity, consistent with our theory, we find that learning leads to ingroup coordination to the efficient high-effort equilibrium. additionally, our theoretical framework reconciles findings from a number of coordination game experiments. 10. title: bayesian persuasion authors: kamenica, emir; gentzkow, matthew abstract: when is it possible for one person to persuade another to change her action?? we consider a symmetric information model where a sender chooses a signal to reveal to a receiver, who then takes a noncontractible action that affects the welfare of both players. we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a signal that strictly benefits the sender. we characterize sender-optimal signals. we examine comparative statics with respect to the alignment of the sender's and the receiver's preferences. finally, we apply our results to persuasion by litigators, lobbyists, and salespeople. 11. title: the fundamental law of road congestion: evidence from us cities authors: duranton, gilles; turner, matthew a. abstract: we investigate the effect of lane kilometers of roads on vehicle-kilometers traveled (vkt) in us cities. vkt increases proportionately to roadway lane kilometers for interstate highways and probably slightly less rapidly for other types of roads. the sources for this extra vkt are increases in driving by current residents, increases in commercial traffic, and migration. increasing lane kilometers for one type of road diverts little traffic from other types of road. we find no evidence that the provision of public transportation affects vkt. we conclude that increased provision of roads or public transit is unlikely to relieve congestion. 12. title: bid preference programs and participation in highway procurement auctions authors: krasnokutskaya, elena; seim, katja abstract: we use data from highway procurement auctions subject to california's small business preference program to study the effect of bid preferences on auction outcomes. our analysis is based on an estimated model of firms' bidding and participation decisions, which allows us to evaluate the effects of current and alternative policy designs. we show that incorporating participation responses significantly alters the assessment of preferential treatment policies. 13. title: clearing the air?? the effects of gasoline content regulation on air quality authors: auffhammer, maximilian; kellogg, ryan abstract: this paper examines whether us gasoline content regulations, which impose substantial costs on consumers, have successfully reduced ozone pollution. we take advantage of spatial and temporal variation in the regulations' implementation to show that federal gasoline standards, which allow refiners flexibility in choosing a compliance mechanism, did not improve air quality. this outcome occurred because minimizing the cost of compliance does not reduce emissions of those compounds most prone to forming ozone. in california, however, we find that precisely targeted, inflexible regulations requiring the removal of particularly harmful compounds significantly improved air quality. 14. title: the chinese warrants bubble authors: xiong, wei; yu, jialin abstract: in 2005-2008, over a dozen put warrants traded in china went so deep out of the money that they were almost certain to expire worthless. nonetheless, each warrant was traded more than three times each day at substantially inflated prices. this bubble is unique in that the underlying stock prices make warrant fundamentals publicly observable and that warrants have predetermined finite maturities. this sample allows us to examine a set of bubble theories. in particular, our analysis highlights the joint effects of short-sales constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in driving bubbles and confirms several key findings of the experimental bubble literature. 15. title: estimating marginal returns to education authors: carneiro, pedro; heckman, james j; vytlacil, edward j abstract: this paper estimates marginal returns to college for individuals induced to enroll in college by different marginal policy changes. the recent instrumental variables literature seeks to estimate this parameter, but in general it does so only under strong assumptions that are tested and found wanting. we show how to utilize economic theory and local instrumental variables estimators to estimate the effect of marginal policy changes. our empirical analysis shows that returns are higher for individuals with values of unobservables that make them more likely to attend college. we contrast our estimates with iv estimates of the return to schooling. 16. title: how demanding is the revealed preference approach to demand?? authors: beatty, timothy k. m; crawford, ian a. abstract: a well-known problem with revealed preference methods is that when data are found to satisfy their restrictions it is hard to know whether this should be viewed as a triumph for economic theory, or a warning that these conditions are so undemanding that almost anything goes. this paper allows researchers to make this distinction. our approach uses an axiomatic characterization of a measure of predictive success due to selten (1991). we illustrate the idea using a panel dataset. the results show that this approach can lead us to radically reassess our view of the empirical performance of economic theory. 17. title: currency misalignments and optimal monetary policy: a reexamination authors: engel, charles abstract: this paper examines optimal monetary policy in an open-economy two-country world with sticky prices under pricing to market. we show that currency misalignments are inefficient and lower world welfare. we find that optimal policy must target consumer price inflation, the output gap, and the currency misalignment. the paper derives the loss function of a cooperative monetary policymaker and the optimal targeting rules. the model is a modified version of clarida, gal�, and gertler ( jme, 2002). the key change is that we allow pricing to market or local-currency pricing and consider the policy implications of currency misalignments. 18. title: aggregate and idiosyncratic risk in a frictional labor market authors: rudanko, leena abstract: this paper develops a tractable extension of a mortensen-pissarides style matching model that allows for risk averse workers with limited ability to smooth consumption. i show that this leads to a form of equilibrium wage rigidity, as the inability of workers to smooth their consumption across unemployment and employment spells changes how unemployed workers value wage offers, and hence also the offers that employers find profitable to make. in the model risk-averse entrepreneurs use optimal long-term contracts to attract risk averse workers facing limited access to asset markets. a simple analytic representation for the equilibrium is derived. 19. title: expectations, learning, and business cycle fluctuations authors: eusepi, stefano; preston, bruce abstract: this paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. learning breaks the tight link between fundamentals and equilibrium prices, inducing periods of erroneous optimism or pessimism about future returns to capital and wages which subsequent data partially validate. in a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and propagates technology shocks. moreover, it produces agents' 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