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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��as^ ��""��8�d]��nlyyyyy��?nanananananan$pp�sfen9��en��yy4�n��y�y?n��?n��y��p/b��?� n�n0�n�lso:ls��0ls�wk��enen��n��ls��"qs: risk analysis volume 41, issue 9, september 2021 1. title: handling uncertainty in models of seismic and postseismic hazards: toward robust methods and resilient societies authors: brian h. macgillivray. abstract: earthquakes, tsunamis, and landslides take a devastating toll on human lives, critical infrastructure, and ecosystems. harnessing the predictive capacities of hazard models is key to transitioning from reactive approaches to disaster management toward building resilient societies, yet the knowledge that these models produce involves multiple uncertainties. the failure to properly account for these uncertainties has at times had important implications, from the flawed safety measures at the fukushima power plant, to the reliance on short-term earthquake prediction models (reportedly at the expense of mitigation efforts) in modern china. this article provides an overview of methods for handling uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami hazard analysis, and debris flow modeling, considering best practices and areas for improvement. it covers sensitivity analysis, structured approaches to expert elicitation, methods for characterizing structural uncertainty (e.g., ensembles and logic trees), and the value of formal decision-analytic frameworks even in situations of deep uncertainty. 2. title: use and misuse of mcda to support decision making informed by risk authors: jeffrey m. keisler, igor linkov. abstract: recent guidelines for risk-informed decision making (ridm) provide a gold-standard for how to incorporate probabilistic risk models in conjunction with other considerations in a decision process. nevertheless, risk quantification using probabilistic and statistical methods is difficult in situations where threat, vulnerability, and consequences are highly uncertain and risk quantification. in such situations a wider variety of methods could be employed, which we call decision making informed by risk (dmir) combining risk and decision analytics. risk informed decision making (ridm) can be considered as a special case of dmir. multi criteria decision analysis (mcda) often serves as a basis for dmir in order to flexibly accommodate different levels of analytical detail. dmir often involves artful use of proxy variables that correlate with, and are more measurable than, underlying factors of interest. this article introduces the notion of dmir and discusses the use of mcda in its application in the context of risk-based problems. mcda-based risk analyses identify metrics associated with threats of concern and system vulnerabilities, characterize the way in which alternative actions can affect these threats and vulnerabilities, and ultimately synthesize this information to compare, prioritize, or select alternative mitigation strategies. simple linear additive mcda models often integrate these inputs, but the same simplicity can limit such approaches and create pitfalls and more advanced models including multiplicative relationships can be warranted. this essay qualitatively explores the critical practitioner questions of how and when the use of linear multicriteria models creates significant problems, and how to avoid them. 3. title: quantitative risk assessment on the transport of dangerous goods vehicles through unidirectional road tunnels: an evaluation of the risk of transporting hydrogen authors: ciro caliendo, gianluca genovese. abstract: a quantitative risk analysis (qra) concerning dangerous goods vehicles (dgvs), including also vehicles for the transport of liquid hydrogen (lh2tvs), running through unidirectional motorway tunnels was performed. an event tree was built, and a wide parametric analysis based on different geometric and traffic characteristics of tunnels was carried out. the effects of the annual average daily traffic (aadt) per lane, the tunnel length (l), the percentage both of heavy goods vehicles (hgvs) and dgvs (for a given 7% of lh2tvs) were investigated. the results in terms of social risk, as expressed by f/n curves and the expected value (ev), show an increased risk level with the presence of the hydrogen transported, and with certain f/n curves that might also lie above the acceptability limit. this means that additional safety measures should be implemented in order to reduce the risk level or that, alternatively, appropriate strategies of traffic control systems should be taken. a statistical modeling for developing a predictive method of the ev is also performed. the outcomes show that the regression coefficients have the signs expected. in particular, the ev increases with the tunnel length (l), the aadt, and the percentage both of hgvs and dgvs. however, the magnitude of estimated coefficients indicates that the expected value ev increases more with the traffic (aadt per lane, hvgs, or dgvs) than the tunnel length. the application of the approximate method might help the tunnel management agencies (tmas) in making quick decisions, at a preliminary stage, about temporarily allowing, forbidding or limiting the circulation of dgvs and/or lh2tvs through tunnels; and subsequently investigating in greater depth the potential hazards due to the transport of hydrogen in the worst cases individualized. 4. title: risk factors for 100-year flood events in the mid-atlantic region of the united states authors: gina tonn, seth guikema. abstract: anecdotal information indicates that streams in the mid-atlantic region of the united states experience more extreme flood events than might be expected. this leads to the question of whether this is an unfounded perception or if these extreme events are actually occurring more than should be expected. if the latter is true, is this due solely to randomness, or alternately to characteristics that make certain watersheds more prone to repeated events that may be defined as 100-year or greater floods? these questions are investigated through analysis of flood events based on standard flood frequency analysis. 100-year streamflow rates for stream gages were estimated using bulletin 17b flood frequency analysis methods, and the probability of the annual peak flow record for each gage was calculated. these probabilities were compared to a set of synthetic probabilities to evaluate their distribution. this comparison indicates that for the mid-atlantic region as a whole, the bulletin 17b method does not systematically over or underestimate flood frequency. a random forest model of probability of actual flood record (pafr) versus watershed and stream gage characteristics was developed and used to understand if certain characteristics are associated with pafr. this analysis indicated that unexpected numbers of large flood events in a stream gage period of record can be attributed primarily to randomness, but there is some correlation with watershed and gage characteristics including weighted skew, drainage area, and mean annual peak discharge. the results indicate that watersheds with high values of these characteristics may warrant advanced flood frequency methods. 5. title: quantitative analysis on risk influencing factors in the jiangsu segment of the yangtze river authors: jinfen zhang, anxin he, cunlong fan, xinping yan, c. guedes soares. abstract: quantitative risk influencing factors (rifs) are proposed, using the conjugate bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the jiangsu segment of the yangtze river over five years from 2012 to 2016. the accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. the bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different rifs. the riskiest segment of jiangsu waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. the results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk. 6. title: an integrated risk and resilience assessment of sea ice disasters on port operation authors: xueqin liu, zhenhua chen. abstract: risk and resilience assessment of disasters plays a critical role in decision making for emergency response and postdisaster recovery. yet, there is still a lack of modeling framework that could capture the effectiveness of economic resilience under uncertain disaster conditions. the objective of this study is to develop a novel integrated framework that is able to help decisionmakers understand the effectiveness of resilience performance under various risk conditions. using hazard data of the bohai sea and throughput data of the port of yingkou (china) as an example, the copula-modeling method was adopted for the risk assessment of sea ice disasters on seaport operations. this study shows that the gumbel copula method, with consideration of ice thickness level and area of ice cover, provides the most robust risk assessment outcome. in addition, a grid chart system with an overlap of a joint return period and port throughput change provides a straightforward understanding of resilience performance under different risk levels. in particular, economic resilience tactics, such as production recapture and effective management, were confirmed to be effective resilience strategies, especially when a risk level is high, as port operational losses can be avoided up to 86.8%. overall, the study provides insights that could help stakeholders improve the effectiveness of disaster risk management through an improved understanding of the linkage between risk and resilience. 7. title: expressions of resilience: social media responses to a flooding event authors: ashley a. anderson. abstract: concerns over the resilience of individuals within communities impacted by extreme weather events have heightened in recent years due to the increasing frequency and intensity of these events. individuals� participation in communicative activities is an integral part of how they prepare for and respond to natural disasters. this study focuses on how individuals express resilience in social media posts from twitter before, during, and after a regional flooding event in colorado in 2013 (n = 210,303). findings show that both negative and positive emotional responses spike at the start of the event, with positive emotions remaining high in the weeks following the event. uses of language related to social connections, as well as references to home and work, increased during and after the event. tweets used pronouns focused on the self during the event but shifted to pronouns focused on the collective after the event. this study points the importance of language for understanding the lasting impact extreme weather events can have on individuals, as well as when and how to reach individuals with information about recovery. the increased focus on collective language after the event provides an opportunity for calls to action in collecting and distributing shared resources. 8. title: the role of fairness in early characterization of new technologies: effects on selective exposure and risk perception authors: hwanseok song, hang lu, katherine a. mccomas. abstract: previous research suggests that when individuals have limited knowledge to make sense of new or emerging technologies, they may rely more on available cues, such as the fairness of those managing the risks, when developing their attitudinal and behavioral responses to the technology. to examine this further, we designed an online experiment (n = 1,042) to test the effects of risk managers� nonoutcome fairness on individuals� selective exposure to additional information and perceived risk. as the study context, we used the development of enhanced geothermal systems (egs), which uses drilling to tap deep underground sources of heat for district heating and electricity and remains low in familiarity among the u.s. public. the results suggest that participants who read about the fair risk manager were subsequently more likely to have positive attitudes toward egs development. in turn, those with more positive attitudes were more likely to select and read positively valenced articles about egs, resulting in an indirect effect of the fairness condition. although this study also explored whether uncertainty moderated this fairness effect on information seeking, it found no evidence. additionally, when participants were exposed to information featuring fair risk managers, perceived risk decreased, an effect that was mediated by beliefs that egs was controllable and not dreadful. these results underscore the importance of using practices that will increase nonoutcome fairness in the introduction of new technologies. 9. title: storms, fires, and bombs: analyzing the impact of warning message and receiver characteristics on risk perception in different hazards authors: maxi rahn, samuel tomczyk, silke schmidt. abstract: in crisis communication, warning messages are key to prevent or mitigate damage by informing the public about impending risks and hazards. the present study explored the influence of hazard type, trait anxiety, and warning message on different components of risk perception. a survey examined 614 german participants (18�96 years, m = 31.64, 63.0% female) using a pre�post comparison. participants were randomly allocated to one of five hazards (severe weather, act of violence, breakdown of emergency number, discovery of a world war ii bomb, or major fire) for which they received a warning message. four components of risk perception (perceived severity, anticipatory worry, anticipated emotions, and perceived likelihood) were measured before and after the receipt. also, trait anxiety was assessed. analyses of covariance of risk perception were calculated, examining the effect of warning message, trait anxiety, and hazard type while controlling for age, gender, and previous hazard experience. results showed main effects of hazard type and trait anxiety on every component of risk perception, except for perceived likelihood. the receipt of a warning message led to a significant decrease in anticipated negative emotions. however, changes across components of risk perception, as well as hazards, were inconsistent, as perceived severity decreased while perceived likelihood and anticipatory worry increased. in addition, three interactional effects were found (perceived severity � hazard type, perceived severity � trait anxiety, and anticipated emotions � hazard type). the findings point toward differences in the processing of warning messages yet underline the importance of hazard type, as well as characteristics of the recipient. 10. title: snapshot models of undocumented immigration authors: scott rodilitz, edward h. kaplan. abstract: accurately estimating the size of the undocumented immigrant population is a critical component of assessing the health and security risks of undocumented immigration to the united states. to provide one such estimate, we use data from the mexican migration project (mmp), a study that includes samples of undocumented mexican immigrants to the united states after their return to mexico. of particular interest are the departure and return dates of a sampled migrant's most recent sojourn in the united states, and the total number of such journeys undertaken by that migrant household, for these data enable the construction of data-driven undocumented immigration models. however, such data are subject to an extreme physical bias, for to be included in such a sample, a migrant must have returned to mexico by the time of the survey, excluding those undocumented immigrants still in the united states. in our analysis, we account for this bias by jointly modeling trip timing and duration to produce the likelihood of observing the data in such a �snapshot� sample. our analysis characterizes undocumented migration flows including single-visit migrants, repeat visitors, and �retirement� from circular migration. starting with 1987, we apply our models to 30 annual random snapshot surveys of returned undocumented mexican migrants accounting for undocumented mexican migration from 1980 to 2016. scaling to population quantities and supplementing our analysis of southern border crossings with estimates of visa overstays, we produce lower bounds on the total number of undocumented immigrants that are much larger than conventional estimates based on u.s.-based census-linked surveys, and broadly consistent with the more recent estimates reported by fazel-zarandi, feinstein, and kaplan. 11. title: evaluating an intervention to reduce risky driving behaviors: taking the fear out of virtual reality authors: clara alida cutello, michaela gummerum, yaniv hanoch, elizabeth hellier. abstract: educational programs are the most common type of intervention to reduce risky driving behavior. their success, however, depends on the content of the material used and the mode of delivery. in the present study, we examined the impact of fear versus positively framed road safety films and traditional technologies (2d) versus emerging technologies (vr) on young drivers� self-reported risky driving behaviors. one hundred and forty-six university students completed a similar set of questionnaires pre-intervention and post-intervention, two weeks later. in addition, they were randomly assigned to one of the four experimental conditions (vr vs. 2d; positive vs. negative). in the vr conditions, the film was presented using an htc vive virtual reality headset. in the 2d conditions, the film was presented on a computer screen. measures evaluating attitudes toward risky driving behavior were completed at both time frames, questions regarding the participants' emotional arousal were asked at pre-intervention as a manipulation check, and questions regarding willingness to take risks in potentially dangerous driving situations were asked at follow-up. the findings indicate that the positively framed films significantly decreased self-reported risky driving behaviors in both modalities, but especially when viewed in vr format. in contrast, the fear appeal film, when shown in vr, failed to reduce risky driving behaviors, and in fact, increased young drivers� self-reported risky driving behaviors. theoretical frameworks regarding the strengths and weaknesses of fear appeals and positively framed appeals are discussed to aid future research to reduce risky driving. practical implications on the future usage of vr are also considered. 12. title: integration of evidence on community cancer risks from elongate mineral particles in silver bay, minnesota authors: linda d. dell, alexa e. gallagher, lisa j. yost, kenneth a. mundt. abstract: the potential for cancer-related risks to community members from ambient exposure to elongate mineral particles (emps) in taconite processing has not been formally evaluated. we evaluated 926 ambient air samples including 12,928 emps (particle structures with length-to-width ratio e"3:1) collected over 26 years near a taconite processing facility in silver bay, minnesota. eighty-two percent of emps were d"3 �m in length and 97% of emps had an average aspect ratio <20:1. a total of 935 (7.3%) emps had length >5 �m and ar e"3:1. average ambient concentration of niosh countable amphibole emps over all years was 0.000387 emps per cubic centimeter (emp/cm3). of 12,765 nonchrysotile emps, the number of amphiboles with length and width dimensions that correlate best with asbestos-related carcinogenicity ranged from four (0.03%) to 13 (0.1%) and the associated ambient amphibole air concentrations ranged from 0.000003 to 0.000007 emp/cm3. after 65 years of taconite processing in silver bay, evidence of an increased risk of mesothelioma and lung cancer in community members who did not work in the taconite industry is lacking. the absence of an increased risk of asbestos-related cancer in the silver bay community is coherent with supporting evidence from epidemiological and toxicological studies, as well as ambient exposure data and lake sediment data collected in minnesota iron range communities. collectively, the data provide consistent evidence that nonasbestiform amphibole minerals lack the carcinogenic potential exhibited by amphibole asbestos. 13. title: risk assessment of glyphosate exposures from pilot study with simulated heavy residential consumer application of roundup� using a margin of safety (mos) approach authors: daniel g. kougias, eric miller, abigail mcewen, heidi reamer, michael kovochich, jennifer pierce. abstract: due to the widespread application of glyphosate, a nonselective herbicide, to a variety of resistant food crops, the general population is exposed to glyphosate through dietary intake. despite this, dietary exposures to glyphosate are considered low in comparison to application-related exposures. although previous studies have evaluated exposure to horticultural and agricultural workers, to date only one study, which we recently conducted, has characterized exposure to glyphosate in consumers following heavy residential application of a glyphosate-containing herbicide in a residential yard and garden setting. in this previous study, we demonstrated that urinary glyphosate concentrations in these applicators were similar to or in some circumstances greater than those in occupational applicators, likely due to the nature of the simulation study, which ensured a heavy application protocol. however, it is unknown whether these urinary glyphosate concentrations in consumer applicators correspond to internal doses that may be of concern. therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive risk assessment of glyphosate exposure in consumer applicators using a margin of safety approach. here, we incorporated data collected from multiple spot urine samples across time from our previous study that assessed consumer exposure to glyphosate from roundup� application. estimated internal doses, even with the use of conservative assumptions across unique approaches, were below internal doses estimated from established health-based guidance values. overall, this study demonstrates that glyphosate exposure from even heavy consumer application of a commercially available glyphosate-containing herbicide does not appear to be a health concern. 14. title: data mining approaches for assessing chemical coexposures using consumer product purchase data authors: rogelio tornero-velez, kristin isaacs, kathie dionisio, steven prince, hanna laws, michael nye, paul s. price, timothy j. buckley. abstract: the use of consumer products presents a potential for chemical exposures to humans. toxicity testing and exposure models are routinely employed to estimate risks from their use; however, a key challenge is the sparseness of information concerning who uses products and which products are used contemporaneously. our goal was to demonstrate a method to infer use patterns by way of purchase data. we examined purchase patterns for three types of personal care products (cosmetics, hair care, and skin care) and two household care products (household cleaners and laundry supplies) using data from 60,000 households collected over a one-year period in 2012. the market basket analysis methodology frequent itemset mining (fim) was used to identify co-occurring sets of product purchases for all households and demographic groups based on income, education, race/ethnicity, and family composition. our methodology captured robust co-occurrence patterns for personal and household products, globally and for different demographic groups. fim identified cosmetic co-occurrence patterns captured in 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