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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�~bjbj�n�n2��a��aiu ��""��8�le�,ql��p�p�p�p�p�p�p$�r�nuf�p9��p��4�pqqq��pq��pqqq��`o|��s��wqsp�p0,qq�u�f�uqq�/�u�'ml��q��p�p��,q��u��"qs: risk analysis volume 42, issue 3, march 2022 1. title: estimation of tolerable daily intake (tdi) for immunological effects of aflatoxin authors: nikita saha turna, felicia wu abstract: aflatoxins are toxic chemicals produced by the fungi aspergillus flavus and aspergillus parasiticus. in warm climates, these fungi frequently contaminate crops such as maize, peanuts, tree nuts, and sunflower seeds. in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world, populations are coexposed to dietary aflatoxin and multiple infectious pathogens in food, water, and the environment. there is increasing evidence that aflatoxin compromises the immune system, which could increase infectious disease risk in vulnerable populations. our aim was to conduct a dose�response assessment on a noncarcinogenic endpoint of aflatoxin: immunotoxicological effects. we sought to determine a noncarcinogenic tolerable daily intake (tdi) of aflatoxin, based on the existing data surrounding aflatoxin and biomarkers of immune suppression. to conduct the dose response assessment, mammalian studies were assessed for appropriateness of doses (relevant to potential human exposures) as well as goodness of data, and two appropriate mouse studies that examined decreases in leukocyte counts were selected to generate dose response curves. from these, we determined benchmark dose lower confidence limits (bmdl) as points of departure to estimate a range of tdis for aflatoxin-related immune impairment: 0.017 0.082 �g/kg bw/day. as aflatoxin is a genotoxic carcinogen, and regulations concerning its presence in food have largely focused on its carcinogenic effects, international risk assessment bodies such as the joint expert committee on food additives (jecfa) have never established a tdi for aflatoxin. our work highlights the importance of the noncarcinogenic effects of aflatoxin that may have broader public health impacts, to inform regulatory standard-setting. 2. title: a benchmark dose analysis for maternal pregnancy urine-fluoride and iq in children authors: philippe grandjean, howard hu, christine till, rivka green, morteza bashash, david flora, martha maria tellez-rojo, peter x.k. song, bruce lanphear, esben budtz-j�rgensen abstract: as a guide to establishing a safe exposure level for fluoride exposure in pregnancy, we applied benchmark dose modeling to data from two prospective birth cohort studies. we included mother�child pairs from the early life exposures in mexico to environmental toxicants (element) cohort in mexico and the maternal-infant research on environmental chemicals (mirec) cohort in canada. maternal urinary fluoride concentrations (u-f, in mg/l, creatinine-adjusted) were measured in urine samples obtained during pregnancy. children were assessed for intelligence quotient (iq) at age 4 (n = 211) and between six and 12 years (n = 287) in the element cohort, and three to four years (n = 407) in the mirec cohort. we calculated covariate-adjusted regression coefficients and their standard errors to assess the association of maternal u-f concentrations with children's iq measures. assuming a benchmark response of 1 iq point, we derived benchmark concentrations (bmcs) and benchmark concentration levels (bmcls). no deviation from linearity was detected in the dose�response relationships, but boys showed lower bmc values than girls. using a linear slope for the joint cohort data, the bmc for maternal u-f associated with a 1-point decrease in iq scores was 0.31 mg/l (bmcl, 0.19 mg/l) for the youngest boys and girls in the two cohorts, and 0.33 mg/l (bmcl, 0.20 mg/l) for the mirec cohort and the older element children. thus, the joint data show a bmcl in terms of the adjusted u-f concentrations in the pregnant women of approximately 0.2 mg/l. these results can be used to guide decisions on preventing excess fluoride exposure in pregnant women. 3. title: rethinking risk perception and its importance for explaining natural hazard preparedness behavior authors: mitchell scovell, connar mcshane, anne swinbourne, daniel smith abstract: psychological theory suggests there is a positive association between risk perception and protective behavior. empirical research has, however, found mixed support for the positive link between risk perception and protective behavior. one explanation for the inconsistent link is the way in which risk perception has been conceptualized and/or operationalized in past research. specifically, few studies acknowledge differences in hazard severity and how it might affect risk perception and protective behavior. past research has also tended to overlook the importance of emotional appraisal in relation to perceived hazard consequences. to address these inconsistencies in past research, 337 people living in a cyclone-prone location were recruited to participate in an online study. in this study, respondents were randomly presented with one of five hypothetical cyclone scenarios, which differed in objective severity. respondents were also presented with a survey, which assessed risk perception, protective action perceptions (or coping appraisal), and intentions to perform short-term protective behaviors. as hypothesized, risk perception significantly increased preparedness intentions when controlling for hazard severity, hazard probability, and protective action perceptions. moreover, the degree to which respondents associated negative emotions with predicted damage was also a relatively strong predictor of preparedness intentions. overall, the findings support the theoretical link between risk perception and protective behavior and provide a new method of assessing risk perception in cross-sectional research. on a practical level, the results suggest that increasing risk perception should promote protective behavior in response to natural hazards. 4. title: trust, perceptions of risks and benefits, and normative acceptance of approaches for restoring american chestnut trees authors: joshua d. petit, mark d. needham, glenn t. howe abstract: this article examined trust, perceived risks and benefits, and normative acceptance associated with using breeding and genetic engineering (ge) to restore american chestnut (ac) trees. questionnaires were completed by a random representative sample of the public in the united states (n = 278) and a purposive sample of forest interest groups (fig) such as scientists and managers (n = 195). these concepts were examined in relation to breeding (breed the ac with chestnut trees from asia) and ge (add the oxalate oxidase [oxo] gene from bread wheat to the ac) approaches for mitigating chestnut blight and restoring ac trees. the public sample considered adding the gene from bread wheat (ge) to be more beneficial and slightly more acceptable, but also slightly riskier, compared to the breeding approach. the figs viewed the breeding approach to be more acceptable, less risky, and more beneficial than the ge approach. the figs viewed both approaches as less risky, more beneficial, and more acceptable than did the public sample. path analysis showed that: (i) perceived environmental benefits were the strongest predictors of normative acceptance of both approaches for the public sample, (ii) perceived environmental risks were the strongest predictors of acceptance of both approaches for the figs, (iii) human benefits and risks were mostly unrelated to acceptance, and (iv) trust in government agencies charged with managing forests was only weakly associated with benefits, risks, and acceptance. implications of these results for both research and management were discussed. 5. title: earthquake threat! understanding the intention to prepare for the big one authors: zahra asgarizadeh lamjiry, robert gifford abstract: knowledge about how hazard-threatened individuals perceive risks and what influences their intentions to prepare is crucial for effective disaster management. we investigated (a) whether residents of objectively higher-risk earthquake areas within a city perceive greater risk, have stronger intentions to prepare, and report more preparation than residents of objectively lower-risk areas, (b) 10 antecedent factors as predictors of the intention to prepare for an earthquake, and (c) whether risk perception mediates the relations between nine antecedent factors and the intention to prepare. notably, residents of high-risk areas did not express stronger intentions to prepare or report more preparations than did residents of low-risk areas, despite perceiving significantly greater risk. risk perception mediated the relation between antecedent fatalism and the intention to prepare. among the policy implications is a clear need for greater education of residents in high-risk earthquake areas. 6. title: the double bind of communicating about zoonotic origins: describing exotic animal sources of covid-19 increases both healthy and discriminatory avoidance intentions authors: mark lacour, brent hughes, micah goldwater, molly ireland, darrell worthy, jason van allen, nick gaylord, garrett van-hoosier, tyler davis abstract: many novel diseases are of zoonotic origin, likely including covid-19. describing diseases as originating from a diverse range of animals is known to increase risk perceptions and intentions to engage in preventative behaviors. however, it is also possible that communications depicting use of exotic animals as food sources may activate stereotypes of cultures at the origin of a disease, increasing discriminatory behaviors and disease stigma. we used general linear modeling and mediation analysis to test experimental data on communications about zoonotic disease origins from the critical first two months leading up to the declaration of a global pandemic. results suggest that communications about potential familiar food origins (pigs) affected people's risk perceptions, health behaviors, and covid-19 stigma compared to more exotic food sources (e.g., snakes). participants (n = 707) who read descriptions of exotic origins viewed the virus as riskier and reported stronger intentions to engage in preventative behaviors than those who read about familiar origins (pigs). however, reading exotic origin descriptions was also associated with stronger intentions to avoid asian individuals and animal products. these results are critical for both theory and public policy. for theory, they are the first to experimentally demonstrate that zoonotic origin descriptions can impact intentions to engage in discriminatory behaviors for cultures viewed as the origin of a novel infectious disease. for policy, they offer clear, actionable insights on how to communicate about risks associated with a novel zoonosis while managing the potential impact on discriminatory behaviors and stigma. 7. title: deterrence against terrorist attacks in sports-mega events: a method to identify the optimal portfolio of defensive countermeasures authors: marcelo zawadzki, gilberto montibeller, bruce cox, carmen belderrain abstract: sports mega-events, such as the olympic games or the super bowl, are attractive targets for terrorist organizations, due to their visibility, size, and number of people involved. two characteristics of sports mega-events, however, make them distinctive in comparison with other well-studied target protection problems in counterterrorism analysis (such as transportation hubs or infrastructure facilities). first, defensive measures are often publicly known. second, their finite horizon means that deterrence against any attack must be prioritized. in this article we thus propose a method that identifies the best portfolio of defensive measures the defense may adopt, given a fixed budget, to minimize the chances of suffering a terrorist attack during a sports mega-event. the method makes some relevant contributions to adversarial risk analysis: (i) it represents attackers that can choose among multiple attack scenarios and the no-attack scenario; (ii) it measures the deterrence effect caused by synergic portfolios of defensive measures; and (iii) it proposes an algorithm that identifies dominated portfolios and may, thus, overcome the scalability problems inherent to this portfolio optimization. we apply this method to a real-world defense problem, revisiting the defensive countermeasure planning for the 2016 brazilian olympic games in rio de janeiro, brazil. in the case study, we find a nonlinear relationship between budget expenditure and deterrence, as well as a decreasing marginal effectiveness use of resources after a given budget threshold, which would support a more efficient allocation of investments in the games defense. 8. title: individual and collective strategies to limit the impacts of large power outages of long duration authors: angelena d. bohman, ahmed abdulla, m. granger morgan abstract: as modern society becomes ever more dependent on the availability of electric power, the costs that could arise from individual and social vulnerability to large outages of long duration (lld-outages) increases. during such an outage, even a small amount of power would be very valuable. this article compares individual and collective strategies for providing limited amounts of electric power to residential customers in a hypothetical new england community during a large electric power outage of long duration. we develop estimates of the emergency load required for survival and assess the cost of strategies to address outages that last 5, 10, and 20 days in either winter or summer. we find that the cost of collective solutions could be as much as 10 to 40 times less than individual solutions (less than $2 per month per home). however, collective solutions would require community-wide coordination, and if local distribution system lines are destroyed, only individual back-up systems could provide contingency power until those lines are repaired. costs might be reduced if more robust distributed generation were employed that could be operated continuously with the ability to sell power back to the grid. our cost-effectiveness analysis only assesses what could be done, developing estimates of preparedness cost. a decision about what should be done would require additional input from a range of stakeholders as well as some form of analytical deliberative process. 9. title: organizational resilience to disruption risks: developing metrics and testing effectiveness of operational strategies authors: milad baghersad, christopher w. zobel abstract: this study draws from the system resilience literature to propose three different metrics for evaluating the resilience performance of organizations against disruptions: the initial loss due to the disruption, the maximum loss, and the total loss over time. in order to show the usefulness of the developed metrics in practice, we deploy these metrics to study the effectiveness of two resilience strategies: maintaining operational slack and broadening operational scope, by empirically analyzing the performance of manufacturing firms that experienced a disruption during the period from 2005 to the end of 2014. the results show that maintaining certain aspects of operational slack and broadening business scope and geographic scope can affect these different metrics in different ways. our results help decisionmakers in risk management to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which the recommended strategies actually improve organizations� resilience, as well as the ways in which they may do so. 10. title: quantitative analysis of safety risks and relationship with delayed project completion times authors: maryam alkaissy, mehrdad arashpour, heng li, sina alaghmand, abe nezamian abstract: dynamic work environments in construction and civil infrastructure sectors remain susceptible to safety risks. although previous research has resulted in improvements, there is currently a gap in measuring temporal impacts of safety risks quantitatively. precise modeling of potential delays caused by safety incidents is vital for efficient management of risks and making informed decisions on project contingency. toward this aim, the current research adopts a nondeterministic modeling method to simulate and quantify safety incidents and find correlations with project delays. using a deductive approach, three research questions were formulated, and investigations conducted on australian data collected from 2016 onwards. quantitative impacts of safety risks on project completion times were numerically measured. furthermore, safety risks were ranked based on their significance of temporal impacts on project performance. this paper contributes to the theory of safety management by developing a nondeterministic method to model impacts of safety risks at both industry and project levels. practical contributions and outcomes can facilitate using machine learning methods to plan proportionate time buffers to address safety risks. 11. title: federal regulation and mortality in the 50 states authors: james broughel, dustin chambers abstract: previous research speculates that some regulations are counterproductive in the sense that they increase (rather than decrease) mortality risk. however, few empirical studies have measured the extent to which this phenomenon holds across the regulatory system as a whole. using a novel u.s. state panel data set spanning the period 2000�2014, we estimate the effect of u.s. federal regulation on state-level mortality. we find that a 1% increase in federal regulation of state economies is associated with an increase in an index of state mortality of between 0.53% and 1.35%. these findings are robust to the form of mortality measure, choice of covariates, and the inclusion/exclusion of various regions, states, and industries. we also provide an update of the �cost-per-life saved cutoff,� which is the counterproductive risk threshold for expenditures. we find that expenditures in excess of $38.6 million (2019 dollars) per life saved can be expected to increase mortality risk. this article fills an important gap in the empirical literature and boosts the credibility of mortality risk analysis, whereby public policymakers weigh both the expected lives saved and lost due to a proposed regulation or other policy. 12. title: a multiperiod model for assessing the socioeconomic impacts of oil spills during arctic shipping authors: mawuli afenyo, adolf k.y. ng, changmin jiang abstract: as the rate of ice melt in the arctic increases, the potential for shipping activities is also increasing. however, infrastructure along the northwest passage (nwp) in canada's arctic is almost nonexistent. this presents major challenges to any response efforts in the case of a natural disaster. also, the arctic is home to many indigenous communities, as well as flora and fauna. thus, it is of vital importance to protect the livelihood of the rights holders in this area and the arctic marine environment. to do this, it is necessary to develop a decision-making tool to assess the potential risk of pollutants arising from increased shipping activity. understanding such, this article assesses the impacts of a potential oil spill on communities in the canadian arctic. the consequences of risk are presented using a multiperiod model while the likelihood is analyzed using bayesian network. the output of the multiperiod model is incorporated into an influence diagram for risk assessment purposes. the bayesian model benefits from expert elicitation from the crew aboard a research ship passing through the nwp. information was also obtained from marine insurance companies, government representatives, and other arctic specialized professionals. the risk-based model is subsequently applied to the canadian arctic area, with the aim of evaluating the impact of a potential oil spill through shipping. 13. title: bank risk appetite communication and risk taking: the key role of integrated reports authors: chiara mio, marisa agostini, silvia panfilo abstract: this article investigates whether qualitative information provided by banks about risk appetite (ra) sheds substantive insight on their effective risk taking (rt) and whether this latter in turn affects ra disclosure, as well as the role played by specific types of banks� reports (i.e., integrated report, annual report, pillar 3 report) on such relations. using a sample of 134 reports representing 52 banks, a generalized structural equation model is applied. the article hypothesizes and empirically finds a reciprocal relation between ra disclosure and banks� rt. more specifically, in line with agency theory, the analysis displays a predominance of the inverse relation according to which banks showing higher rt provide greater disclosure. in addition, rt is found to play a mediator role between the adoption of a specific type of report�the integrated report�and ra disclosure, independently of the context in which the banks operate. results also highlight that rt in banks adopting an integrated report is lower than the one of matched banks. overall, this study extends risk science by complementing the literature stream on banks� accounting discretion and risk disclosure, supporting the impact of market discipline in promoting new forms of corporate reporting. results indeed emphasize the key role of integrated reporting on rt, suggesting that integrated logic should be strengthened by policy makers to curb banks� excessive rt and leading them to provide substantive disclosure. 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