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��ࡱ�>�� qt����p��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �r�ubjbj��2\x�x��5 �������ddddd����xxx8�\ x�ll(((((\\\dlflflflflflfl$in��p:jl-d\\\\\jldd((4�l���\�d(d(dl�\dl���(������f�,�x�^�0l�l0�l�%qdj%q���0%qd�i�\\�\\\\\jljl�f\\\�l\\\\��������������������������������������������������������������������%q\\\\\\\\\ *: journal of policy analysis and management volume 31, issue 3, summer 2012 1. title: are green vehicles worth the extra cost? the case of diesel-electric hybrid technology for urban delivery vehicles authors: kerry krutilla, john d. graham abstract: a central question for environmental policy is whether the long-term benefits of energy-saving technologies are sufficient to justify their short-term costs, and if so, whether financial incentives are needed to stimulate adoption. the fiscal effects of incentivizing new technologies, and the revenue effects of using the technology, are also policy relevant, given current fiscal constraints. this study evaluates the economic and fiscal effects of promoting diesel-electric hybrid technology in urban delivery vehicles, an application supported by u.s. policymakers. an economic model is used to simulate the conditional probability density functions of the net present values (npvs) of diesel electric hybrids annually from 2012 to 2030. the npv time paths, which reflect fuel price, environmental, and technology trends, show the expected dates that hybrids become economically viable, and allow an evaluation of the net benefits of hybrid technology as an investment over the entire simulation horizon. the npv distributions are computed for five stakeholder classes, including transportation firms, parties benefiting from reduced externality damages, state and local governments, and the larger society. the analysis shows that hybrid technology investment does not appear to be justified from a societal perspective at a 7 percent discount rate, but the probability for positive net returns increases substantially at a 3 percent rate. 2. title: do carrots work? examining the effectiveness of epa's compliance assistance program authors: sarah stafford abstract: the role of compliance assistance in the u.s. environmental protection agency's overall enforcement strategy has been quite variable over the past decade and a half, increasing in prominence under the bush administration and now slated for significantly reduced funding under the obama administration. while theoretical models and anecdotal evidence suggest that compliance assistance should play some role in a comprehensive enforcement strategy, to date there has been relatively little empirical evidence on the actual effectiveness of existing compliance assistance programs. to help inform the debate over the appropriate use of compliance assistance, this paper uses data on hazardous waste generators nationwide to assess the effect of federal compliance assistance programs in improving compliance with hazardous waste regulations. the paper also conducts a direct empirical analysis of the relationship between traditional enforcement tools and compliance assistance. the results show that federal compliance assistance efforts do increase compliance, but the evidence does not suggest any consistent relationship between traditional enforcement and compliance assistance. also, while states do not appear to substitute federal compliance assistance for traditional enforcement, state compliance assistance programs do appear to decrease the likelihood of inspections among the smallest hazardous waste generators. 3. title: heat waves, droughts, and preferences for environmental policy authors: ann l. owen, emily conover, julio videras, stephen wu abstract: using data from a new household survey on environmental attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences, we find that current weather conditions affect preferences for environmental regulation. individuals who have recently experienced extreme weather (heat waves or droughts) are more likely to support laws to protect the environment. we find evidence that the channel through which weather conditions affect policy preference is via perceptions of the importance of the issue of global warming. furthermore, environmentalists and individuals who consult more sources of news are less likely to have their attitudes toward global warming changed by current weather conditions. these findings suggest that communication and education emphasizing consequences of climate change salient to the individual's circumstances may be the most effective in changing attitudes of those least likely to support proenvironment policy. in addition, the timing of policy introduction could influence its success. 4. title: environmental justice and green-technology adoption authors: paul ong abstract: this paper presents an analysis of an environmental justice (ej) program adopted by the south coast air quality management district (scaqmd) as a part of its regulation to phase out a toxic chemical used by dry cleaners. scaqmd provided financial incentives to switch early and gave establishments in ej neighborhoods priority in applying for grants. despite this pro-ej policy, available data show that dry cleaners in low-income, predominantly minority, and ej-designated areas were less likely to be an early adopter of green technologies, and this finding holds even after accounting for firm and market characteristics. dry cleaners in disadvantaged neighborhoods were also less likely to receive a grant to switch technology despite the district's effort to set aside half of the funding for applicants from ej areas. 5. title: subsidies for new technologies and knowledge spillovers from learning by doing authors: gregory f. nemet abstract: this study empirically examines a prominent justification for public subsidies of emerging technologies: that stimulating demand for them provides opportunities for learning by doing. even if firms learn from their experience, subsidies are still second best to pricing negative externalities if firms can appropriate the benefits of learning. i construct a panel of electricity output from wind power projects, for a case involving $1 billion in public funds, to assess whether firms� performance benefited from the experience of other firms. i find evidence of learning by doing and knowledge spillovers. however, knowledge gained from experience shows both diminishing returns and depreciating effectiveness. 6. title: permanent visas and temporary jobs: evidence from postdoctoral participation of foreign phds in the united states authors: xiaohuan lan abstract: about 75 percent of u.s.-trained, noncitizen phds in science and engineering work in the united states after graduation, and 54 percent of those who stay take postdoctoral positions. the probability of postdoctoral participation is substantially higher for temporary visa holders than for permanent visa holders because of visa-related restrictions in the u.s. labor market. to identify the causal effects of visa status on entry into a postdoctoral position, this paper uses a unique shock to visa status generated by the chinese student protection act of 1992. eligibility for the act is used as an instrumental variable for visa status. two-stage least-square estimates show that permanent visa holders are 24 percent less likely to take postdoctoral positions than temporary visa holders. the effects of a permanent visa vary considerably across research fields, but for most fields, it reduces postdoctoral participation significantly. 7. title: does targeted, disease-specific public research funding influence pharmaceutical innovation? authors: margaret e. blume-kohout abstract: public funding for biomedical research is often justified as a means to encourage development of more (and better) treatments for disease. however, few studies have investigated the relationship between these expenditures and downstream pharmaceutical innovation. in particular, although recent analyses have shown a clear contribution of federally funded research to drug development, there exists little evidence to suggest that increasing targeted public research funding for any specific disease will result in increased development of drugs to treat that disease. this paper evaluates the impact of changes in the allocation of u.s. national institutes of health (nih) extramural research grant funding across diseases on the number of drugs entering clinical testing to treat those diseases, using new longitudinal data on nih extramural research grants awarded by disease for years 1975 through 2006. results from a variety of distributed lag models indicate that a sustained 10 percent increase in targeted, disease-specific nih funding yields approximately a 4.5 percent increase in the number of related drugs entering clinical testing (phase i trials) after a lag of up to 12 years, reflecting the continuing influence of nih funding on discovery and testing of new molecular entities. in contrast, we do not see evidence that increases in nih extramural grant funding for research focused on specific diseases will increase the number of related treatments investigated in the more expensive, late-stage (phase iii) trials. 8. title: growing stem cells: the impact of federal funding policy on the u.s. scientific frontier authors: jeffrey l. furman, fiona murray, scott stern abstract: this paper articulates a citation-based approach to science policy evaluation and employs that approach to investigate the impact of the united states� 2001 policy regarding the federal funding of human embryonic stem cell (hesc) research. we evaluate the impact of the policy on the level of u.s. hesc research, the u.s. position at the knowledge frontier, and the strategic response of u.s. scientists. consistent with recent research on the science of science and innovation policy, we employ a difference-in-differences approach using bibliometric data with the aim of analyzing the causal impact of the policy on cumulative research. our estimates suggest that in the aftermath of the 2001 policy, u.s. production of hesc research lagged 35 to 40 percent behind anticipated levels. however, this relative decline was largely concentrated in the years 2001 to 2003 and ameliorated over time. the rebound in u.s. hesc research after 2003 was driven by contributions by researchers at elite u.s. institutions and u.s. researchers who collaborated with international partners. the results suggest that scientists respond strategically to research funding restrictions and that modest science policy shifts can have a significant influence on the within-country composition of research and the pattern of global research collaboration. 9. title: can nonexperimental estimates replicate estimates based on random assignment in evaluations of school choice? a within-study comparison authors: kenneth a. couch editor, robert bifulco abstract: the ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. as in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented without pretreatment measures of academic performance. with comparison groups consisting of students drawn from the same districts or districts with similar student body characteristics as the districts where treatment group students reside, using pretreatment test scores reduces the bias in nonexperimental methods between 64 and 96 percent. adding pretreatment test scores does not achieve as much bias reduction when the comparison group consists of students drawn from districts with different student body characteristics than the treatment group students� districts. the results suggest that using pretreatment outcome measures and comparison groups that are geographically aligned with the treatment group greatly improves the performance of nonexperimental estimators. � 2012 by the association for public policy analysis and management. 10. title: innovation inducement prizes: connecting research to policy authors: douglas j. besharov editor, heidi williams abstract: innovation inducement prizes have been used for centuries. in the united states, a recent federal policy change�the america competesreauthorization act of 2010�clarified and simplified a path by which all federal agencies can offer innovation inducement prizes, thus intensifying interest in how government agencies can most effectively design and apply such prizes. this paper aims to review and synthesize the academic literature on innovation inducement prizes, to clarify what has been learned that is relevant to current policy discussions, and to highlight unresolved questions that would be fruitful areas for future academic research and policy experimentation. relative to the existing literature, this paper aims to bridge two gaps. first, i synthesize the academic literature in this area with an eye toward drawing lessons for the types of innovation inducement prizes under consideration by federal agencies under the america competesreauthorization act. second, i discuss the problem of how to evaluate the success or failure of innovation inducement prizes, arguing that careful empirical evaluations of innovation inducement prizes are needed in order to provide guidance to federal agencies (and others) on how to most effectively apply and design innovation inducement prizes. �n n/ffnċ� 11. title: collaborative 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