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��ࡱ�>�� ik����h��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������'` �r��4bjbj$�$�2vf�f��, �������ddddddd�����8�d`��s*��������~s�s�s�s�s�s�s$)uh�w<�sd���sdd��4�s���d�d�~s�~s��:�,dd,�| ����f��,: js�s0�s" �wf(�w,,�4�wd"qh�d ����$����s�s�����s���d�����xd�,�dddddd���� journal of policy analysis and management volume 29, issue 4, fall 2010 1. title: an analysis of the neighborhood impacts of a mortgage assistance program: a spatial hedonic model authors: wenhua di, jielai ma and james c. murdoch abstract: down payment or closing cost assistance is an effective program in addressing the wealth constraints of low-and moderate-income homebuyers. however, the spillover effect of such programs on the neighborhood is unknown. this paper estimates the impact of the city of dallas mortgage assistance program (map) on nearby home values using a hedonic model of home sales from 1990 to 2006. we define neighborhoods of 1,000 feet around each sale and estimate the average differences in sales prices between neighborhoods with various numbers of map properties before and after their appearance. we find that map properties tend to locate in neighborhoods with lower property values; however, unless a concentration of map properties forms, the infusion of map properties has little detrimental impact on neighboring property values. moreover, low concentration of map properties has a modest positive impact on surrounding property values. 2. title: schools' mental health services and young children's emotions, behavior, and learning authors: randall reback abstract: recent empirical research has found that children's noncognitive skills play a critical role in their own success, young children's behavioral and psychological disorders can severely harm their future outcomes, and disruptive students harm the behavior and learning of their classmates. yet relatively little is known about wide-scale interventions designed to improve children's behavior and mental health. this is the first nationally representative study of the provision, financing, and impact of school-site mental health services for young children. elementary school counselors are school employees who provide mental health services to all types of students, typically meeting with students one-on-one or in small groups. given counselors' nonrandom assignment to schools, it is particularly challenging to estimate the impact of these counselors on student outcomes. first, cross-state differences in policies provide descriptive evidence that students in states with more aggressive elementary counseling policies make greater test score gains and are less likely to report internalizing or externalizing problem behaviors compared to students with similar observed characteristics in similar schools in other states. next, difference-in-differences estimates exploiting both the timing and the targeted grade levels of states' counseling policy changes provide evidence that elementary counselors substantially influence teachers' perceptions of school climate. the adoption of state-funded counselor subsidies or minimum counselor�student ratios reduces the fraction of teachers reporting that their instruction suffers due to student misbehavior and reduces the fractions reporting problems with students physically fighting each other, cutting class, stealing, or using drugs. these findings imply that there may be substantial public and private benefits derived from providing additional elementary school counselors. 3. title: postsecondary preparation and remediation: examining the effect of the early assessment program at california state university authors: jessica s. howell, michal kurlaender and eric grodsky abstract: in this paper we investigate how participation in the early assessment program, which provides california high school juniors with information about their academic readiness for college-level work at california state university campuses, affects their college-going behavior and need for remediation in college. using administrative records from california state university,�sacramento and the california department of education, we find that participation in the early assessment program reduces the average student's probability of needing remediation at california state university by 6.1 percentage points in english and 4.1 percentage points in mathematics. rather than discouraging poorly prepared students from applying to sacramento state, eap appears to lead students to increase their academic preparation while still in high school. 4. title: extending the eitc to noncustodial parents: potential impacts and design considerations authors: laura wheaton and elaine sorensen abstract: this paper examines the noncustodial parent earned income tax credit (ncp eitc), a new type of credit recently enacted in new york and washington, d.c., and proposed by senator bayh and then-senator obama in 2007. the ncp eitc offers an earned income tax credit to low-income noncustodial parents who work and pay their full child support. this paper provides background information about the policy and presents national estimates of eligibility and benefits for an ncp eitc under three alternative policy scenarios. it also discusses several key design and implementation issues. 5. title: success and design of local referenda for land conservation authors: h. spencer banzhaf, wallace e. oates and james n. sanchirico abstract: from 1998 to 2006, over three-quarters of the more than 1,550 u.s. referenda targeting open space passed. we analyze the success of the conservation movement at holding referenda in areas with greater ecological value and greater likelihood of supporting conservation. to do so, we first analyze the patterns in where referenda are held and in which finance mechanisms they employ. controlling for these two selection patterns, we then investigate the factors determining the success of the referenda. our findings suggest that conservation groups are pursuing a successful strategy, targeting communities with above-average probabilities of passing referenda and higher ecological value. nevertheless, our results suggest that overlooked opportunities exist in minority and middle-class neighborhoods, in suburban fringe areas, and in the southeast. 6. title: unchanging child support orders in the face of unstable earnings authors: yoonsook ha, maria cancian and daniel r. meyer abstract: the underlying theory behind child support guidelines implies that child support orders should change when the incomes of noncustodial parents change. this paper documents changes in noncustodial fathers' earnings over a five-year period and examines the relationship between the changes in earnings and modifications in child support orders. using detailed longitudinal administrative data from wisconsin, the authors examine the history of orders and earnings for fathers in couples who had their first child support ordered in 2000. a substantial proportion of fathers experience large changes in earnings, but relatively few of the associated child support orders are modified. using discrete-time multinomial event history models that consider time-varying variables and control for censored observations, we find some evidence of changes in earnings being associated with changes in orders, all else equal, but the relationship is relatively weak and order changes are not proportional to earnings changes. the findings highlight the challenges and importance of developing policies that result in child support orders being more responsive to changes in fathers' incomes. 7. title: intertemporal regulatory tasks and responsibilities for greenhouse gas reductions authors: jeffrey a. deason and lee s. friedman abstract: jurisdictions are in the process of establishing regulatory systems to control greenhouse gas emissions. short-term and sometimes long-term emissions reduction goals are established, as california does for 2020 and 2050, but little attention has yet been focused on annual emissions targets for the intervening years. we develop recommendations for how these annual targets�which we collectively term a �compliance pathway��can be set, as well as what flexibility sources should have to adjust in light of cost uncertainties. environmental effectiveness, efficiency, equity, adaptability, and encouraging global participation are appropriate criteria by which these intertemporal policy alternatives should be judged. limited but useful knowledge about costs leads us to recommend a compliance pathway characterized by increasing incremental reductions along it. this can be approximated by discrete linear segments, which may fit better with global negotiations. although the above conclusion applies to any long-term ghg regulatory program, many jurisdictions will rely heavily on a cap-and-trade system, and the same pathway recommendation applies to its time schedule of allowances. furthermore, borrowing constraints in cap-and-trade systems can impose substantial unnecessary costs. to avoid most of these costs, we recommend that sources be allowed early use of limited percentages of allowances intended for future years. we also find that a three-year compliance period can have substantial benefit over a one-year period. 8. title: political and public acceptability of congestion pricing: ideology and self-interest authors: bj�rn h�rsman and john m. quigley abstract: studies of the �stated preferences� of households generally report public and political opposition by urban commuters to congestion pricing. it is thought that this opposition inhibits or precludes tolls and pricing systems that would enhance efficiency in the use of scarce roadways. this paper analyzes the only case in which road pricing was decided by a citizen referendum on the basis of experience with a specific pricing system. the city of stockholm introduced a toll system for seven months in 2006, after which citizens voted on its permanent adoption. we match precinct voting records to resident commute times and costs by traffic zone, and we analyze patterns of voting in response to economic and political incentives. we document political and ideological incentives for citizen choice, but we also find that the pattern of time savings and incremental costs exerts a powerful influence on voting behavior. in this instance, at least, citizen voters behave as if they value commute time highly. when they have experienced first-hand the out-of-pocket costs and time savings of a specific pricing scheme, they are prepared to adopt freely policies that reduce congestion on urban motorways. 9. title: how to think about the u.s. budget challenge authors: henry j. aaron abstract: the long-term budget prospects of the united states are grim. projected spending greatly exceeds projected revenue over the next few decades. projected growth of health care spending accounts for more than all of the anticipated gap. without action to narrow the gap, accumulating deficits will drive up the ratio of debt to gdp. interest payments will rise correspondingly. at some point, domestic and foreign holders of u.s. debt will come to doubt the capacity of the government to service this debt. at that point, they will demand sharply higher interest rates. the combination of increasing debt and rising interest rates will cause debt service costs to explode. what follows would be some combination of collapsing investment, declining production, debt default, and inflation�in brief, a calamitous mess. that such a mess will occur is certain 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