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volume 89, issue 4, jul. /aug. 2010
1. title: castrocare in crisis
authors: laurie garrett
abstract: cuba is a third world country that aspires to first world medicine and health. its health-care system is not only a national public good but also a vital export commodity. under the castro brothers' rule, cubans' average life expectancy has increased from 58 years (in 1950) to 77 years (in 2009), giving cuba the world's 55th-highest life expectancy ranking. according to the who, cuba has the second-lowest child mortality rate in the americas and the lowest per capita hiv/aids prevalence. by any measure, these achievements are laudable. but they have come at tremendous financial and social cost. if policymakers on both sides of the florida straits do not take great care, the tiny caribbean nation could swiftly be robbed of its greatest triumph. first, its public health network could be devastated by an exodus of thousands of well-trained cuban physicians and nurses. second, for-profit us companies could transform the remaining health-care system into a prime destination for medical tourism from abroad.
2. title: coping with china's financial power
authors: ken miller
abstract: china's approach to economic development has turned the country into a lopsided giant, an export juggernaut with one huge financial arm. following the reforms launched by deng xiaoping in 1979, chinese businesses began using cheap labor and cheap capital to compete on the world market, with ever-increasing effectiveness. today, beijing continues to subsidize exports heavily. never before has china had this much financial might, and it is now experimenting with how best to use it in its relations with other states. china is at an early stage of increasing its influence in international finance, and although it sometimes sounds ambitious, it is being prudent. policymakers in the us should remember that china emerged as a financial power less than ten years ago. with a better understanding of china's domestic imperatives, washington can encourage beijing to project its financial power abroad in ways that contribute to the stability of the global economy.
3. title: defining success in afghanistan
authors: stephen biddle, fotini christia, j alexander thier
abstract: the original plan for a post-taliban afghanistan called for rapid, transformational nation building. but such a vision no longer appears feasible, if it ever was. many americans are now skeptical that even a stable and acceptable outcome in afghanistan is possible. they believe that afghanistan has never been administered effectively and is simply ungovernable. without clear limits on acceptable outcomes, the us and nato military campaign will be rudderless, as will any negotiation strategy for a settlement with the taliban. none is perfect, and all would require sacrifice. but it is a mistake to assume that afghanistan is somehow ungovernable or that any sacrifice would be wasted in the pursuit of an unachievable goal. afghanistan's own history offers ample evidence of the kind of stable, decentralized governance that could meet today's demands without abandoning the country's current constitution. by learning from this history and from recent experience in afghanistan and elsewhere, the us can frame a workable definition of success in afghanistan.
4. title: fear and loathing in nairobi
authors: john githongo
abstract: the carnage that followed kenya's disputed election in late 2007 shocked the world. a country once considered to be an oasis of peace and stability in a troubled region had suddenly degenerated into disorder and ferocious violence. the cauldron simply boiled over in 2007. the failure of the election was merely a trigger for events that would have taken place at some point in the future. there had long been an overwhelming sense of exclusion and alienation among large sections of the populace. the political crisis that followed the election finally ended on february 28, 2008, with a negotiated settlement that brought together the leaders of both feuding parties and formed a single cabinet. throughout africa, uniting belligerents under one roof has resulted in policymaking paralysis and resentful voters, angry that the governments they have are not the ones any of them elected. kenya is a case in point.
5. title: mugabe �ber alles
authors: robert i rotberg
abstract: more than a year into a supposed unity government between pres robert mugabe's zimbabwe african national union-patriotic front and prime minister morgan tsvangirai's movement for democratic change, zimbabwe continues to stagnate. there has been little unity, even less partnership, a wholesale denial of basic political and human rights, and only marginal economic improvements. mugabe is holding tightly to the levers of power. the unity government was born in 2009, after mugabe finally agreed to share power under pressure from the southern african development community, a regional bloc. from the beginning, mugabe has run roughshod over the unity compact. a sad statistic demonstrates the full tragedy of mugabe's misrule: in 1965, most of africa was much more prosperous than east and south asia; today, most asian countries are ten times as wealthy as african ones. zimbabwe is no exception. and mugabe, the poster child for venal leadership, is at the root of the country's poverty.
6. title: no good deed goes unpunished
authors: princeton n lyman, stephen b wittels
abstract: the george w. bush administration increased annual us assistance to africa almost sixfold, from $1.3 billion in fiscal year 2001 to $7.3 billion in fiscal year 2009. one-time debt forgiveness and emergency humanitarian assistance contributed to this increase, but it was primarily driven by the president's emergency plan for aids relief (pepfar), the us' single largest continuing commitment to africa. pepfar, which was originally expected to disburse some $15 billion over its first five years, actually spent $25 billion between 2003 and 2008. if the us continues to lead the international community in filling the "treatment gap," the magnitude of the commitment will steadily grow. and so, too, will the foreign policy problems this kind of aid creates. more aid will limit washington's influence on issues other than hiv/aids in recipient countries. the obama administration will need to recognize the paradox that in the absence of increases in other forms of aid, more humanitarian assistance will mean less leverage.
7. title: obama and the americas
authors: abraham f lowenthal
abstract: incoming us presidents, from john f. kennedy to george w. bush, have often announced a new policy initiative toward latin america and the caribbean. but few expected this from barack obama. his administration was inheriting too many far more pressing problems. soon after obama's inauguration, however, the administration organized high-level visits to latin america and the caribbean and announced various initiatives toward the region. calling for a "new beginning" in us-cuban relations, it loosened restrictions on travel and remittances to cuba by cuban americans, said it would consider allowing us investment in telecommunications networks with the island, and expressed a willingness to discuss resuming direct mail service to cuba and to renew bilateral consultations on immigration to the us. the administration should work closely with brazil to reform and reinforce international trade, finance, and investment rules; combat climate change; prevent and contain global pandemics; curb nuclear proliferation; and strengthen international governance arrangements.
8. title: prisoners of the caucasus
authors: charles king, rajan menon
abstract: a series of suicide bombings in and around moscow killed dozens in 2003 and 2004. and then, this past march, a pair of female suicide bombers blew themselves up in the moscow metro during morning rush hour, killing nearly 40 people. even this grim tally is incomplete; it does not include the much higher level of violence that regularly occurs in the north caucasus itself. the russian government seems to have few creative ideas about how to deal with the turmoil in the region, which has become the epicenter of routine political violence in the country. the future of the north caucasus hinges on whether it can gain an equal place within the russian polity. if moscow continues to focus its energies on insulating the rest of russia from the ills of the north caucasus, then an increasing number of the region's inhabitants will wonder whether russians can be anything other than distant, irrelevant overlords.
9. title: stopping proliferation before it starts
authors: gregory l schulte
abstract: international efforts to stem the spread of nuclear weapons typically focus on thwarting the atomic ambitions of north korea and iran. this, however, is a game that is unlikely to be won. the leaders of both countries remain unmoved by international condemnation and pressure. rather than fixating on the proliferation they are unable to prevent, concerned countries should pay more attention to preventing proliferation to states that have not yet decided to build nuclear weapons, particularly states in the middle east. such a strategy will require that the international community improve its ability to detect suspect activities, strengthen the tools to disrupt networks for transferring nuclear technology, and actively dissuade other countries from going nuclear by enhancing those countries' security and devaluing nuclear weapons. the us security relationship with the gulf states is more important than the next un security council resolution on iran. working with china to plan for north korea's future is more important than setting the table for the next round of six-party talks.
10. title: the containment conundrum
authors: barry r posen, barry rubin, james m lindsay, ray takeyh
abstract: in "after iran gets the bomb" (march/april 2010), james lindsay and ray takeyh offer a carefully reasoned and persuasive argument that in the likely event that iran gains a nuclear or near-nuclear capability, the us government should adopt a policy of containment and deterrence. on the whole, the article argues for prudent, low-key containment efforts and for resisting the urge to ramp up us military deployments in the middle east so as to avoid aggravating political sensitivities there. yet its authors are willing to threaten preventive war for negotiating purposes even though they concede that a strike would accomplish little. lindsay and takeyh should have reviewed how a us or an israeli preventive attack might unfold and the range of military, economic, and political consequences that could arise. there is nothing iran could do to prevent devastating retaliation from the us or israel. making that point clear should be the underpinning of the us' deterrence strategy.
11. title: the new cocaine cowboys
authors: robert c bonner
abstract: mexico is in the throes of a battle against powerful drug cartels, the outcome of which will determine who controls the country's law enforcement, judicial, and political institutions. mexico could become a first-world country one day, but it will never achieve that status until it breaks the grip these criminal organizations have over all levels of government and strengthens its law enforcement and judicial institutions. it cannot do one without doing the other. the outcome matters for the us -- if the drug cartels succeed, the us will share a 2,000-mile border with a narcostate controlled by powerful transnational drug cartels that threaten the stability of central and south america. victory can be achieved. mexico's drug cartels are becoming desperate. if mexico takes the lessons of colombia to heart and continues to show strong leadership and firm political will, it can, with us assistance, rid itself of the cartels for good.
12. title: ukrainian blues
authors: alexander j motyl
abstract: in february 2010, viktor yanukovych made a remarkable political comeback. in the 2004 ukrainian presidential election, yanukovych, who was then ukraine's prime minister and the handpicked successor to president leonid kuchma, was accused of fraud and ousted by the orange revolution, which was led by viktor yushchenko and yulia tymoshenko. just over five years later, surrounded by his party's blue-and-white banners, yanukovych became president. whatever the reasons for yanukovych's victory it was a surprisingly narrow one. at the start of his presidency, yanukovych laid out his foreign policy priorities: restoring ukraine's close ties with russia, european integration, and building relationships with strategic partners such as the us. by playing to these priorities and, at the same time, pursuing their own interests in the region, russia, the european union, and the us can help stabilize the yanukovych presidency and ukraine. if no popular revolution intervenes, russia and the west will have to deal with yanukovych and his "blue counterrevolution" for the next five years.
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13. title: empire without end
authors: charles s maier
abstract: empires in world history: power and the politics of difference, by jane burbank and frederick cooper, the rule of empires: those who built them, those who endured them, and why they always fall, by timothy parsons, and empire for liberty: a history of american imperialism from benjamin franklin to paul wolfowitz, by richard h. immerman, are reviewed.
14. title: honolulu, harvard, and hyde park
authors: walter russell mead
abstract: the bridge: the life and rise of barack obama, by david remnick, is reviewed.
15. title: veiled truths
authors: marc lynch
abstract: the flight of the intellectuals, by paul berman, is reviewed.
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