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��ࡱ�>�� r�z�bjbj��2�x�x�\w ��8��,��ml��mmmmmmm$o��q:*m9��*m��4cm��m��m��,߰�t��lym0�m��q�^�q��/�q�pj��*m*m��m��q��: foreign affairs volume 91, issue 4, jul/aug 2012 1. title: why iran should get the bomb: nuclear balancing would mean stability authors: waltz, kenneth n. abstract: the past several months have witnessed a heated debate over the best way for the us and israel to respond to iran's nuclear activities. as the argument has raged, the us has tightened its already robust sanctions regime against the islamic republic, and the european union announced in january that it will begin an embargo on iranian oil on july 1. although the us, the eu, and iran have recently returned to the negotiating table, a palpable sense of crisis still looms. once iran crosses the nuclear threshold, deterrence will apply, even if the iranian arsenal is relatively small. no other country in the region will have an incentive to acquire its own nuclear capability, and the current crisis will finally dissipate, leading to a middle east that is more stable than it is today. for that reason, the us and its allies need not take such pains to prevent the iranians from developing a nuclear weapon. 2. title: europe's optional catastrophe: the fate of the monetary union lies in germany's hands authors: mallaby, sebastian abstract: two decades ago, when the european currency system was last on the brink of collapse, the ultimate question was how much germany, the continent's economic powerhouse, would do to save it. the peripheral economies were hurting, weighed down by a monetary policy that was appropriate for germany but too austere for weaker european countries. germany's central bank, the bundesbank, had to make a choice. it could continue to set high interest rates, thus upholding its commitment to stable prices. or it could cut rates and accept modest inflation -- and so save the rest of europe from a prolonged recession. germany's leaders are correct that the countries in crisis must earn their own recoveries; the european central bank cannot save them on its own. in particular, they must improve the administration of public finances, cracking down on tax evasion and wasteful spending, and remove product and labor-market regulations that undermine competitiveness. but these reforms tend to pay off in the long term. 3. title: the cuban missile crisis at 50: lessons for u.s. foreign policy today authors: allison, graham abstract: fifty years ago, the cuban missile crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear disaster. the current confrontation between the us and iran is like a cuban missile crisis in slow motion. events are moving, seemingly inexorably, toward a showdown in which the us president will be forced to choose between ordering a military attack and acquiescing to a nuclear-armed iran. today, the threat of an israeli air strike strengthens us president barack obama's hand in squeezing iran to persuade it to make concessions. but the possibility that israel might actually carry out a unilateral air strike without us approval must make washington nervous, since it makes the crisis much harder to manage. one lesson of the cuban missile crisis is that if you are not prepared to risk war, even nuclear war, an adroit adversary can get you to back down in successive confrontations. 4. title: trading up in asia: why the united states needs the trans-pacific partnership authors: gordon, bernard k. abstract: as the doha round of global trade talks nears its 12th year with no end in sight, the negotiations have all but failed. frustrated with doha's stagnation and eager to expand trade and secure alliances, the us has signed a series of bilateral free-trade agreements, culminating in last year's pacts with colombia, panama, and south korea. these deals have been generally favorable to the us; the agreement with south korea is expected to increase trade between the two countries by billions of dollars and create tens of thousands of jobs for each. even as washington hopes that its efforts to shape the trans-pacific partnership (tpp) will sooth the concerns of us industries and unions, it has already rankled public interest groups and the governments of the other countries negotiating the agreement -- particularly when it comes to intellectual property. if the tpp negotiations bear fruit, the us will become far stronger, economically and politically, over the next generation. 5. title: environmental alarmism, then and now: the club of rome's problem-and ours authors: lomborg, bj�rn abstract: forty years ago, humanity was warned: by chasing ever-greater economic growth, it was sentencing itself to catastrophe. the club of rome, a blue-ribbon multinational collection of business leaders, scholars, and government officials brought together by the italian tycoon aurelio peccei, made the case in a slim 1972 volume called the limits to growth. in the standard scenario, the authors projected the most likely future that would play out for humanity. the authors concluded that the basic behavior mode of the world system is exponential growth of population and capital followed by collapse. and when you introduce technological developments that successfully lift some restraint to growth or avoid some collapse, the system simply grows to another limit, temporarily surpasses it, and falls back. the authors of the limits to growth named five drivers of the world system, but they left out the most important one of all: people, and their ability to discover and innovate. 6. title: the right way out of afghanistan: leaving behind a state that can govern authors: hadley, stephen; podesta, john abstract: the signing in may of a strategic partnership agreement between the us and afghanistan came at a tense time in the afghan war. as nato and the international security assistance force work to transfer security responsibility for much of the country to the afghan government, the agreement establishes the contours of a long-term relationship and a framework for future cooperation. trust between the us and afghan governments has eroded as a result of afghan civilian casualties, attacks on us and other international forces by afghan troops, and blunders by us military personnel, including the burning of korans at an air base. although the obama administration has reached out to the taliban and pakistan in the hopes of achieving a negotiated settlement, the us transition strategy still prioritizes military activity over diplomacy. the us needs a more robust political strategy to actively support the transition, one that presses for a more legitimate afghan government, a political settlement among the broad range of afghan actors outside the current system, and a regional settlement that involves pakistan. 7. title: obama's new global posture: the logic of u.s. foreign deployments authors: flournoy, mich�le; davidson, janine abstract: tough economic times have often been met in the us by calls for a more modest foreign policy. but despite the global economic downturn, in today's interdependent world, retrenchment would be misguided. the us' ability to lead the international community is still invaluable and unmatched. its economy is still by far the largest, most developed, and most dynamic in the world. preserving the us' unique standing and leadership will require revitalizing the american economy, the foundation of the nation's power. it will also require smart engagement with the rest of the world to create the conditions that are essential to economic recovery and growth, namely, stability and uninterrupted trade. forward engagement is not only an effective way to safeguard us national security interests; it is also a responsible and efficient way to position us forces in a time of economic constraint. obama's strategic realignment rightly recognizes the role that the us military plays in promoting stability and securing us national interests around the world. 8. title: how india stumbled: can new delhi get its groove back? authors: mehta, pratap bhanu abstract: when the united progressive alliance, a group of center-left parties led by the indian national congress, came to power for a second term in 2009, it seemed that india could do no wrong. the economy had sailed through the worst of the global economic recession with gdp growing at a fast seven percent annually and accelerating. inflation was low, officials were finally starting to take india's social problems seriously, and politics in the world's largest democracy were contentious but robust. just two years later, however, india's growth is slackening, its national deficit is growing, and inflation is rising after having fallen between early 2010 and early 2012. india's economic future depends on the country's politics, and that is both good and bad news. true, india's politics will often be mired in brinkmanship and inefficiency. but indian politicians have a remarkable capacity for reinvention. they can rapidly change course when need be, and there is nothing like a crisis to concentrate their minds. 9. title: deterrence lessons from iraq: rationality is not the only key to containment authors: baram, amatzia abstract: as iran continues its pursuit of a nuclear capability, outside observers have debated just how worried the world should be. optimists argue that since nuclear war would be suicidal, no government would ever risk it, and they think the islamic republic would be no exception. pessimists argue that iran's radical and unstable regime might behave in unpredictable ways and cannot be trusted. both camps seem to agree that rationality is the key to deterrence; they disagree over whether a nuclear iran would be rational. the implications of the iraq case for dealing with iran and other problematic actors are unsettling. the one thing optimists and pessimists seem to agree on -- that rational regimes can be counted on to act in predictable ways -- turns out not to be true. so policymakers cannot base their decisions on judgments about what hypothetical rational actors would do in abstract situations. instead, they need to rely on fine-grained, case-specific analyses of particular political figures and bureaucratic processes operating in particular, local contexts. 10. title: how to succeed in business: and why washington should really try authors: benard, alexander abstract: on oct 19, 2011, the government of afghanistan -- acting in part on the recommendation of us military advisers working with the afghan ministry of mines -- granted a license to the china national petroleum corp to develop several oil fields in northern afghanistan. just three years earlier, another state-owned chinese company, the china metallurgical group corp, won the rights to develop afghanistan's aynak copper deposit, one of the largest in the world, again with american acquiescence. there should have been no surprise. the fact is that the us has long lacked even the semblance of a strategy for competing with china in emerging markets. the us needs to find a happy medium in which business promotion again becomes a strong pillar of its foreign policy, although not its sole focus. the declining popularity of chinese companies in the developing world has given the us an opening to regain the initiative in these critical markets. 11. title: cleaning up coal: from climate culprit to solution authors: morse, richard k. abstract: coal, the rock that fueled the industrial age, is once again remaking the global energy landscape. over the past decade, while most of the world stood transfixed by the gyrations of the oil markets, the promise of alternative energy, and the boom in cheap natural gas, coal left all other forms of energy in its dust, contributing nearly as much total energy to the global economy as every other source combined. but just as coal is remaking energy markets, it is also remaking the climate. coal combustion is the world's largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, responsible for almost 13 billion tons per year. given how dominant coal is, one of the most promising ways to fight global warming is to make it emit less carbon dioxide, a solution that is less elusive than commonly thought. as demand for coal climbs to new heights and as global temperatures keep rising, the world cannot afford to pass up the opportunity to make the fuel cleaner. 12. title: national insecurity: just how safe is the united states? / zenko and cohen reply authors: miller, paul d. abstract: micah zenko and michael cohen ("clear and present safety," march/april 2012) argue that "the world that the us inhabits today is a remarkably safe and secure place." the country faces no "existential" threats, great-power war is unlikely, democracy and prosperity have spread, public health has improved, and few international challenges place american lives at risk. in light of these developments, they argue, the us is safer today than it was during the cold war. the biggest problem with this argument is the authors' narrow definition of what constitutes a threat to the united states: a situation that poses existential danger or causes immediate bodily harm or death to us citizens. this threshold is shortsighted and unrealistically high. if the same framework were applied to the twentieth century, then the outbreak of world war i and the german invasion of poland in 1939 would not have been considered threats to the us. 13. title: is iraq on track? : democracy and disorder in baghdad authors: blinken, antony abstract: ned parker's article "the iraq we left behind" gives the impression that iraq is a hybrid of north korea and somalia, part ruthless dictatorship and part lawless wasteland: in short, "the world's next failed state." the article glossed over, or ignored altogether, the clear, measurable progress iraq has made in the few short years since it lurched to the brink of sectarian war. since us president barack obama took office with a commitment to end the war responsibly and initiated the drawdown of 144,000 troops, violence in iraq has declined and remains at historic lows. a trend that has continued since the last us troops departed late last year. for the past two years, critics repeatedly and mistakenly warned that a string of political crises, over the election law, the de-baathification process, the election itself, and the formation of a government, would lead to renewed sectarian violence. 14. title: a solid state/parker replies authors: ricklefs, norman abstract: ned parker's article reflects the new conventional wisdom among media outlets, think tanks, and large swaths of the policymaking and military communities: that iraq is on its way to becoming a failed state, if it isn't one already. long gone is the vision of a us-aligned, democratic iraq serving as a beacon to the rest of the middle east. the country, pessimists such as parker argue, suffers from terrorism, organized crime, corruption, human rights abuses, an absence of law and order, and a lack of basic services that is shameful for such an oil-rich place. occasional coordinated terrorist attacks continue, mostly targeting iraqi security forces and police. only a few years ago, by contrast, the chief threat was not just irregular terrorism but also rocket and sniper attacks, kidnappings, drive-by shootings, and pitched battles in the streets. terrorism and criminal violence now claim on average fewer than 60 lives a week: a 90% reduction from 2006. 15. title: resilient brazil authors: lapper, richard abstract: ruchir sharma is correct that many challenges lie ahead for brazil. its savings rate is too low. its infrastructure is inadequate. a dense bureaucracy and powerful vested interests often block necessary change. reform efforts there move too slowly. but sharma fails to see many positive signs that suggest that brazil will continue to grow. it is certainly true that over the past decade, chinese demand for commodities triggered an economic boom in brazil. brazilian exports to china generated large trade and current account surpluses and allowed brasilia to build up its foreign reserves. but sharma wrongly asserts that brazil spent this windfall on constructing a "sleepy" welfare state. instead, trade surpluses helped stabilize brazil's external accounts, reinforcing the confidence of local businesses and foreign investors in brazil's economy. the social and economic changes of the last two decades and the dynamism of the internal market have not immunized brazil against another global downturn, but they have made it resilient. 16. title: how busted is brazil?: growth after the commodities boom authors: o'neil, shannon abstract: ruchir sharma ("bearish on brazil," may/june 2012) argues that brazil's incredible rise over the past ten years has depended on the sale of commodities, and that as commodity markets begin to slow, so, too, will brazil's growth. sharma correctly notes that in the coming years, brazil will likely need to confront a decline in commodity purchases from china. but he fails to recognize that economic stability has also driven brazil's growth. throughout the late twentieth century, brazil suffered from failed stabilization policies and devastating bouts of hyperinflation. in 1994, however, brazil introduced a new currency, the real, which has kept inflation in check. around this time, the government also began lowering tariffs, opening up markets, and privatizing industries, policies entrenched over the next decade by former brazilian president luiz inacio lula da silva. brazil faces many problems, from poor education and infrastructure to a complex bureaucracy and complicated tax regulations. 17. title: democracy matters authors: rohter, larry abstract: in comparing brazil to china, ruchir sharma calls for brasilia to follow beijing's example of growth at any cost -- a model that would cast the country backward into authoritarianism. since brazil introduced the real in 1994, it has lifted roughly a quarter of its population out of extreme poverty and nurtured a growing class of middleincome consumers. meanwhile, since the late 1970s, china has removed an equal proportion of its citizens from similar levels of poverty. but whereas china has grown under the direction of one-party rule, in which labor unions, an independent press, and autonomous civil society are repressed or forbidden, brazil has done so amid the give-and-take of democracy. sharma is right to argue that brazil faces many challenges. but it cannot confront these problems by following the chinese model, which guarantees profit by imposing its policies and stifling dissent. to continue growing, brazil must serve not hedge funds, banks, and big businesses but the well-being of its citizens. 18. title: educate and innovate/sharma replies authors: lemos, ronaldo abstract: ruchir sharma suggests that to sustain its success, brazil should devote more resources to infrastructure projects, education, and research and development. but he fails to mention that over the past several years, brazil has attempted to do just that, launching a series of programs meant to boost industry and technical education. however noble, these initiatives have failed to address the structural reforms necessary to promote the innovation that the country desperately needs. to begin with, this past april, brazil announced a stimulus package of $35 billion to aid its industrial base. the legislation also eliminated billions of dollars in payroll taxes, created subsidies for lending, and promised to weaken the currency. the brazilian government has also attempted to support industry and innovation in the long term, particularly by improving education. students hoping to have their degrees recognized must endure a years-long validation process before taking doctorate-level jobs, defeating the very purpose of science without borders. 19. title: measuring the mafia-state menace: are government-backed gangs a grave new threat?/na�m replies authors: andreas, peter abstract: according to moisis naim's essay "mafia states" (may/june 2012), the world now faces a grave "new threat": governments that have been taken over by organized crime. these "mafia states" are so dangerous, naim argues, that they are no longer merely a law enforcement challenge but a full-blown national security threat. naim gives of a criminal organization linked to a state, there are many more equally striking parallels from the past. the state and organized crime have never been as separate as naim seems to imagine they once were. naim points to the current venezuelan government's alleged high-level military links to drug trafficking. in many places, from latin america to southeast asia, the cold war created a tolerant climate for states to back criminal enterprises -- links that were often overlooked for geopolitical convenience. the british authorities in the bahamas also operated a mafia state of sorts during prohibition, letting their territory become a transshipment point for rumrunners. �nn/ffnċ� 20. title: hegemony and after: knowns and unknowns in the debate over decline authors: keohane, robert o. abstract: the world america made, by robert kagan, and power and willpower in the american future: why the united states is not destined to decline, by robert j. lieber, are reviewed. 21. title: fixing finance: wall street and the problem of inequality authors: tett, gillian abstract: inequality and instability: a study of the world economy just before the great crisis, by james k. galbraith, finance and the good society, by robert j. shiller and predator nation: corporate criminals, political corruption, and the hijacking of america, by charles ferguson, are reviewed. 22. title: reading putin: the mind and the state of russia's president authors: yaffa, joshua abstract: the strongman: vladimir putin and the struggle for russia, by angus roxburgh and the man without a face: the unlikely rise of vladimir putin, by masha gessen, are reviewed. 23. title: confucius and the ballot box: why "asian values" do not stymie democracy authors: nathan, andrew j. abstract: confucianism and democratization in east asia, by doh chull shin, is reviewed. 24. title: robespierre's rules for radicals: how to save your revolution without losing your head aut!"$ .0124=��ʹʹʹ��}pbtgb?��Ϳ�ͣ��ͣ�wj�\�o�aohr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jhr7a5�ojqj^jo(h�-�h)w�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hvi�h�ps5�ojqj^jh�-�h�-�5�ojqj^jh�psh�ps5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�ps5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h%j,ojqj^jo(h�-�h�-�ojqj^j?��""""""#"d"e"n"�"�"�"�"�&�&�&��񷩜��wi[w�m[񷩜��hvi�h|�5�ojqj^jh|�h|�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh|�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h� �h� �ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hvi�hvi�5�ojqj^jhr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jhvi�hr7a5�ojqj^jh� �h� �5�ojqj^j5��""e"�"�&�&�&' s � �/�/0-0�3�3(4c488��gd�s�gd�e�gd�_gdlz�gd�)ggd|�gd)w�gd� �gdr7a�&�&�&�&�&�&�&'''' '!' % & r 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