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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��]bjbj�n�n2~��a��a�u ��""��8�le�.ql��p�p�p�p�p�p�p$�r�pu<�p��p��4�p{{{��p{��p{{{�� e |��o{�p�p0.q{�u_:�u{{�0�u�qmh��{��p�p��.q��u��"qs: risk analysis volume 43, issue 10, october 2023 1. title: assessing potential hybridization between a hypothetical gene drive-modified drosophila suzukii and nontarget drosophila species authors: sarah wolf, jana collatz, j�rg enkerli, franco widmer, j�rg romeis abstract: genetically engineered gene drives (gegd) are potentially powerful tools for suppressing or even eradicating populations of pest insects. before living gegd insects can be released into the environment, they must pass an environmental risk assessment to ensure that their release will not cause unacceptable harm to non-targeted entities of the environment. a key research question concerns the likelihood that nontarget species will acquire the functional gd elements; such acquisition could lead to reduced abundance or loss of those species and to a disruption of the ecosystem services they provide. the main route for gene flow is through hybridization between the gegd insect strain and closely related species that co-occur in the area of release and its expected dispersal. using the invasive spotted-wing drosophila, drosophila suzukii, as a case study, we provide a generally applicable strategy on how a combination of interspecific hybridization experiments, behavioral observations, and molecular genetic analyses can be used to assess the potential for hybridization. 2. title: modeling of interventions for reducing external enterobacteriaceae contamination of broiler carcasses during processing authors: guido correia carreira, michaela projahn, nina langkabel, evelyne becker, annemarie k�sbohrer abstract: this article presents a mathematical model for the enterobacteriaceae count on the surface of broiler chicken during slaughter and how it may be affected by different processing technologies. the model is based on a model originally developed for campylobacter and has been adapted for enterobacteriaceae using a bayesian updating approach and hitherto unpublished data gathered from german abattoirs. the slaughter process in the model consists of five stages: input, scalding, defeathering, evisceration, washing, and chilling. the impact of various processing technologies along the broiler processing line on the enterobacteriaceae count on the carcasses� surface has been determined from literature data. the model is implemented in the software r and equipped with a graphical user interface which allows interactively to choose among different processing technologies for each stage along the processing line. based on the choice of processing technologies the model estimates the enterobacteriaceae count on the surface of each broiler chicken at each stage of processing. this result is then compared to a so-called baseline model which simulates a processing line with a fixed set of processing technologies. the model calculations showed how even very effective removal of bacteria on the exterior of the carcass in a previous step will be undone by the cross-contamination with leaked feces, if feces contain high concentrations of bacteria. 3. title: a national risk analysis model (nram) for the assessment of covid-19 epidemic authors: qing deng, xingyu xiao, lin zhu, xue cao, kai liu, hui zhang, lida huang, feng yu, huiling jiang, yi liu abstract: covid-19 has caused a critical health concern and severe economic crisis worldwide. with multiple variants, the epidemic has triggered waves of mass transmission for nearly 3 years. in order to coordinate epidemic control and economic development, it is important to support decision-making on precautions or prevention measures based on the risk analysis for different countries. this study proposes a national risk analysis model (nram) combining bayesian network (bn) with other methods. the model is built and applied through three steps. (1) the key factors affecting the epidemic spreading are identified to form the nodes of bn. then, each node can be assigned state values after data collection and analysis. (2) the model (nram) will be built through the determination of the structure and parameters of the network based on some integrated methods. (3) the model will be applied to scenario deduction and sensitivity analysis to support decision-making in the context of covid-19. through the comparison with other models, nram shows better performance in the assessment of spreading risk at different countries. moreover, the model reveals that the higher education level and stricter government measures can achieve better epidemic prevention and control effects. this study provides a new insight into the prevention and control of covid-19 at the national level. 4. title: impact of extreme temperatures on the performance evaluation of china's work-related injury insurance system authors: lina zhang, zihao jia, yung-ho chiu, qinghua pang, xia xu abstract: with the influence of climate change resulting in more extreme days, a rise in the number of work-related injuries could be expected. the literature has addressed the performance evaluation of a work-related injury insurance (wii) system via a two-stage structure with input/output correlation as well as the impact of extreme temperatures under different scenarios. this article thus evaluates the performance of a system comprised of operational and service sub-systems under three scenarios of extreme temperatures and proposes a hybrid two-stage dynamic data envelopment analysis (dea) model with nondiscretionary variables for measuring integrated wii efficiency under the three scenarios. the results are as follows: (1) the poor performance of the operational and service sub-systems leads to the integrated wii system's low efficiency for 30 provinces in china during 2010�2019, except for zhejiang, hainan, and qinghai. (2) extreme temperatures must be considered when measuring wii efficiency and its stage efficiencies, or otherwise wii efficiency and operational efficiency will be underestimated in 19 provinces. (3) the negative impacts of extreme temperatures on the efficiency of the integrated wii system should be taken notice of, especially for sichuan. 5. title: governmental anti-pandemic policies, vaccination, population mobility, twitter narratives, and the spread of covid-19: evidence from the european union countries authors: elena fedorova, svetlana ledyaeva, oksana kulikova, alexandr nevredinov abstract: we provide large-scale empirical evidence on the effects of multiple governmental regulatory and health policies, vaccination, population mobility, and covid-19-related twitter narratives on the spread of a new coronavirus infection. using multiple-level fixed effects panel data model with weekly data for 27 european union countries in the period of march 2020�june 2021, we show that governmental response policies were effective both in reducing the number of covid-19 infection cases and deaths from it, particularly, in the countries with higher level of rule of law. vaccination expectedly helped to decrease the number of virus cases. reductions in population mobility in public places and workplaces were also powerful in fighting the pandemic. next, we identify four core pandemic-related twitter narratives: governmental response policies, people's sad feelings during the pandemic, vaccination, and pandemic-related international politics. we find that sad feelings� narrative helped to combat the virus spread in eu countries. our findings also reveal that while in countries with high rule of law international politics� narrative helped to reduce the virus spread, in countries with low rule of law the effect was strictly the opposite. the latter finding suggests that trust in politicians played an important role in confronting the pandemic. 6. title: confidence deficits and reducibility: toward a coherent conceptualization of uncertainty level authors: scott janzwood abstract: outside of the field of risk analysis, an important theoretical conversation on the slippery concept of uncertainty has unfolded over the last 40 years within the adjacent field of environmental risk. this literature has become increasingly standardized behind the tripartite distinction between uncertainty location, the nature of uncertainty, and uncertainty level, popularized by the �w&h framework.� this article introduces risk theorists and practitioners to the conceptual literature on uncertainty with the goal of catalyzing further development and clarification of the uncertainty concept within the field of risk analysis. it presents two critiques of the w&h framework's dimension of uncertainty level�the dimension that attempts to define the characteristics separating greater uncertainties from lesser uncertainties. first, i argue the framework's conceptualization of uncertainty level lacks a clear and consistent epistemological position and fails to acknowledge or reconcile the tensions between bayesian and frequentist perspectives present within the framework. this article reinterprets the dimension of uncertainty level from a bayesian perspective, which understands uncertainty as a mental phenomenon arising from �confidence deficits� as opposed to the ill-defined notion of �knowledge deficits� present in the framework. and second, i elaborate the undertheorized concept of uncertainty �reducibility.� these critiques inform a clarified conceptualization of uncertainty level that can be integrated with risk analysis concepts and usefully applied by modelers and decisionmakers engaged in model-based decision support. 7. title: urban risks due to climate change in the andean municipality of pasto, colombia: a bayesian network approach authors: luis carlos ortega chamorro phd, julio eduardo ca��n barriga phd abstract: the current trends of climate change will increase people's exposure to urban risks related to events such as landslides, floods, forest fires, food production, health, and water availability, which are stochastic and very localized in nature. this research uses a bayesian network (bn) approach to analyze the intensity of such urban risks for the andean municipality of pasto, colombia, under climate change scenarios. the stochastic bn model is linked to correlational models and local scenarios of representative concentration trajectories (rcp) to project the possible risks to which the municipality of pasto will be exposed in the future. the results show significant risks in crop yields, food security, water availability and disaster risks, but no significant risks on the incidence of acute diarrheal diseases (add) and acute respiratory infections (ari), whereas positive outcomes are likely to occur in livestock production, influenced by population growth. the advantage of the bn approach is the possibility of updating beliefs in the probabilities of occurrence of events, especially in developing, intermediate cities with information-limited contexts. 8. title: textual data transformations using natural language processing for risk assessment authors: mohammad zaid kamil, mohammed taleb-berrouane, faisal khan, paul amyotte, salim ahmed abstract: underlying information about failure, including observations made in free text, can be a good source for understanding, analyzing, and extracting meaningful information for determining causation. the unstructured nature of natural language expression demands advanced methodology to identify its underlying features. there is no available solution to utilize unstructured data for risk assessment purposes. due to the scarcity of relevant data, textual data can be a vital learning source for developing a risk assessment methodology. this work addresses the knowledge gap in extracting relevant features from textual data to develop cause�effect scenarios with minimal manual interpretation. this study applies natural language processing and text-mining techniques to extract features from past accident reports. the extracted features are transformed into parametric form with the help of fuzzy set theory and utilized in bayesian networks as prior probabilities for risk assessment. an application of the proposed methodology is shown in microbiologically influenced corrosion-related incident reports available from the pipeline and hazardous material safety administration database. in addition, the trained named entity recognition (ner) model is verified on eight incidents, showing a promising preliminary result for identifying all relevant features from textual data and demonstrating the robustness and applicability of the ner method. the proposed methodology can be used in domain-specific risk assessment to analyze, predict, and prevent future mishaps, ameliorating overall process safety. 9. title: the benefits and costs of u.s. employer covid-19 vaccine mandates authors: maddalena ferranna, lisa a. robinson, daniel cadarette, michael r. eber, david e. bloom abstract: in 2021, the biden administration issued mandates requiring covid-19 vaccinations for u.s. federal employees and contractors and for some healthcare and private sector workers. these mandates have been challenged in court; some have been halted or delayed. however, their costs and benefits have not been rigorously appraised. this study helps fill that gap. we estimate the direct costs and health-related benefits that would have accrued if these vaccination requirements had been implemented as intended. compared with the january 2022 vaccination rates, we find that the mandates could have led to 15 million additional vaccinated individuals, increasing the overall proportion of the fully vaccinated u.s. population from 64% to 68%. the associated net benefits depend on the subsequent evolution of the pandemic�information unavailable ex ante to analysts or policymakers. in scenarios involving the emergence of a novel, more transmissible variant, against which vaccination and previous infection offer moderate protection, the estimated net benefits are potentially large. they reach almost $20,000 per additional vaccinated individual, with more than 20,000 total deaths averted over the 6-month period assessed. in scenarios involving a fading pandemic, existing vaccination-acquired or infection-acquired immunity provides sufficient protection, and the mandates� benefits are unlikely to exceed their costs. thus, mandates may be most useful when the consequences of inaction are catastrophic. however, we do not compare the effects of mandates with alternative policies for increasing vaccination rates or for promoting other protective measures, which may receive stronger public support and be less likely to be overturned by litigation. 10. title: real-time threat assessment based on hidden markov models authors: ourania theodosiadou, despoina chatzakou, theodora tsikrika, stefanos vrochidis, ioannis kompatsiaris abstract: an essential factor toward ensuring the security of individuals and critical infrastructures is the timely detection of potentially threatening situations. to this end, especially in the law enforcement context, the availability of effective and efficient threat assessment mechanisms for identifying and eventually preventing crime- and terrorism-related threatening situations is of utmost importance. toward this direction, this work proposes a hidden markov model-based threat assessment framework for effectively and efficiently assessing threats in specific situations, such as public events. specifically, a probabilistic approach is adopted to estimate the threat level of a situation at each point in time. the proposed approach also permits the reflection of the dynamic evolution of a threat over time by considering that the estimation of the threat level at a given time is affected by past observations. this estimation of the dynamic evolution of the threat is very useful, since it can support the decisions by security personnel regarding the taking of precautionary measures in case the threat level seems to adopt an upward trajectory, even before it reaches the highest level. in addition, its probabilistic basis allows for taking into account noisy data. the applicability of the proposed framework is showcased in a use case that focuses on the identification of potential threats in public events on the basis of evidence obtained from the automatic visual analysis of the footage of surveillance cameras. 11. title: cyber risk assessment in small and medium-sized enterprises: a multilevel decision-making approach for small e-tailors authors: arun sukumar, hannan amoozad mahdiraji, vahid jafari-sadeghi abstract: the role played by information and communication technologies in today's businesses cannot be underestimated. while such technological advancements provide numerous advantages and opportunities, they are known to thread organizations with new challenges such as cyberattacks. this is particularly important for small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) that are deemed to be the least mature and highly vulnerable to cybersecurity risks. thus, this research is set to assess the cyber risks in online retailing smes (e-tailing smes). therefore, this article employs a sample of 124 small e-tailers in the united kingdom and takes advantage of a multi-criteria decision analysis (mcda) method. indeed, we identified a total number of 28 identified cyber-oriented risks in five exhaustive themes of �security,� �dependency,� �employee,� �strategic,� and �legal� risks. subsequently, an integrated approach using step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (swara) and best�worst method (bwm) has been employed to develop a pathway of risk assessment. as such, the current study outlines a novel approach toward cybersecurity risk management for e-tailing smes and discusses its effectiveness and contributions to the cyber risk management literature. 12. title: narrative persuasion and psychological distance: analyzing the effectiveness of distance-framed narratives in communicating ocean plastic pollution authors: sixiao liu, janet z. yang abstract: narratives have been identified as an effective tool to communicate seemingly abstract and uncertain risks. this study integrates the construal level theory of psychological distance and narrative persuasion to examine how distance-framed narratives influence young adults� attitude, behavioral intention, and policy support related to ocean plastic pollution. results from an experimental survey (n = 889) indicate that the narrative featuring socially close characters and spatially close location is least effective in producing persuasive effects. instead, the narrative depicting socially close characters� encounters at a spatially distant location is more persuasive. within narrative conditions, the findings support the mediating role of identification and transportation in facilitating narrative effects. serial mediation of identification/transportation and psychological distance perception was also observed. findings from this study offer meaningful theoretical and practical implications for strategic communication on ocean plastic pollution. 13. title: do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision-making and risk perception? insights from randomized controlled studies authors: ruri proto, gabriel recchia, sarah dryhurst, alexandra l. j. freeman abstract: risk matrices communicate the likelihood and potential impact of risks and are often used to inform decision-making around risk mitigations. the merits and demerits of risk matrices in general have been discussed extensively, yet little attention has been paid to the potential influence of color in risk matrices on their users. we draw from fuzzy-trace theory and hypothesize that when color is present, individuals are likely to place greater value on reducing risks that cross color boundaries (i.e., the boundary-crossing effect), leading to sub-optimal decision making. in two randomized controlled studies, employing forced-choice and willingness-to-pay measures to investigate the boundary-crossing effect in two different color formats for risk matrices, we find preliminary evidence to support our hypotheses that color can influence decision making. the evidence also suggests that the boundary-crossing effect is only present in, or is stronger for, higher numeracy individuals. we therefore recommend that designers should consider avoiding color in risk matrices, particularly in situations where these are likely to be used by highly numerate individuals, if the communication goal is to inform in an unbiased way. 14. title: evaluation of hazard brochures using topic viewing durations: application to tsunami evacuation brochures authors: michael k. lindell, meen chel jung, carla s. prater, donald h. house abstract: this study describes a novel method of assessing risk communication effectiveness by reporting an evaluation of a tsunami information brochure by 90 residents of three pacific coast communities that are vulnerable to a cascadia subduction zone earthquake and tsunami�commencement bay, washington; lincoln city, oregon; and eureka, california. study participants viewed information that was presented in dynasearch, an internet-based computer system that allowed them to view text boxes and tsunami inundation zone maps. dynasearch recorded the number of times each text box or map was clicked and the length of time that it was viewed. this information viewing phase was followed by questionnaire pages assessing important aspects of tsunami hazard and sources of tsunami warnings. participants gave the longest click durations to what to do in the emergency period during earthquake shaking and in its immediate aftermath before a tsunami arrives�topics that should be displayed prominently in tsunami brochures and emphasized in talks to community groups. the smallest adjusted click durations were associated with advance preparations for a tsunami�topics that can be posted on 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