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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�g�bjbj�n�n2 ��a��a9� ��""��8��,��ul��uuuuuuu$�v��y< u� u��4@u!!!!!!j��u!!u!!!!!!��`*va�d��o@!!�tvu0�u!!�y�f�y!!!!40�y�uq�!! u u�,�u��y"qs: global environmental change volume 84, issue 1, january 2024 1. title: private provisioning of public adaptation: integration of cognitive-behavioral, adaptive capacity, and institutional approaches authors: hallie eakin, nadine methner, gina ziervogel abstract: there is a growing need to create conditions for private actors to engage in provisioning of public adaptation in urban systems. urban administrators have limited control over the urban dynamics necessary to achieve their climate adaptation policy goals. the actions of private actors � residents, businesses, civil society organizations � have significant influence over urban development trajectories. city administrators thus must engage with private actors to mobilize their responses, particularly for extreme climate threats that require everyone to �do their part� to achieve an aggregate state of improved adaptedness for the urban system as a whole. we combine insights from cognitive and behavioral theory, institutional analysis, adaptive capacity, and research on urban adaptation governance to create a conceptual framework to advance theoretical understanding of the potential for private provisioning for public adaptation. we apply these insights to the case of urban actors� responses to the drought of 2017�19 in the city of cape town, south africa. the case illustrates how social norms and identities interact with socioeconomic status, distinct histories with public institutions and authorities, and relative �stocks� of specific and generic capacities to shape private actors� willingness to engage in self-transcendent, public-oriented adaptation. the complexity of these interactions challenge efforts of urban administrators to design effective interventions. policy to foster private provisioning will need to address the difficult questions of how the urban public is defined, who is included, who is excluded, and how individual adaptations can augment or undermine public adaptation goals. 2. title: how social movements use religious creativity to address environmental crises in indonesian local communities authors: jonathan davis smith, ronald adam, samsul maarif abstract: religions play an important yet poorly understood part in how social movements motivate societies to respond to environmental crises and the rapidly changing climate. indonesia sits on the global frontline of environmental crises, with a rich history of religious diversity and environmental activism. using framework synthesis, we analyzed 244 empirical studies (english and indonesian) on 208 environmental social movements operating in local communities in indonesia from 1990 through 2022. we developed a conceptual model showing how grassroots movements used lived religion to create new environmental practices and motivate environmental behavioral changes in diverse local communities. our study inventoried 571 examples of lived religious concepts, practices, rituals and systems that movements used to create environmental concepts and practices. we found three patterns in the creative process: 1) conceptual hybridization, meaning that movements often blended official religions, indigenous religions, and local knowledges and traditions (often called cultural practices), and they fused these aspects of lived religion with economic, legal and scientific concepts; 2) contextual imagination, meaning that movements adopted multiple religious and other strategies to respond to local economic, environmental, political, and religio-cultural contexts; and, 3) contestation-driven improvisation, meaning that movements faced intense opposition, and this dynamic both motivated improvisation and increased the vulnerability of movements and of local communities adapting to rapid environmental change. we propose that future studies on adaptation and sustainable transitions could include lived eco-religion as a meeting point for critical partnerships between environmental scholars in the sciences and the humanities. 3. title: context-dependent changes in maritime traffic activity during the first year of the covid-19 pandemic authors: alexandra loveridge, christopher d. elvidge, david a. kroodsma, timothy d. white, ... david w. sims abstract: rapid implementation of human mobility restrictions during the covid-19 pandemic dramatically reduced maritime activity in early 2020. but where and when activity rebounded, or remained low, during the full extent of 2020 restrictions remains unclear. using global high-resolution datasets, we reveal a surprising degree of complexity in maritime activity patterns during 2020, yielding a more nuanced picture of how restrictions affected activity. overall, shipping activity in exclusive economic zones decreased (1.35 %), as expected, however high-seas activity increased (0.28 %). while these annual changes appear modest, there were striking spatially and temporally asynchronous variations in different vessel types� activity in the second half of 2020, ranging from an > 80 % sustained reduction in passenger vessel activity to a 150 % increase in fishing activity. results suggest systems-level responses were highly context-dependent, pinpointing areas that experienced significant reductions and spikes in activity, and providing hitherto missing details of covid-19 impacts on economic and environmental sustainability. 4. title: (path)ways to sustainable living: the impact of the slim scenarios on long-term emissions authors: nicole j. van den berg, andries f. hof, vanessa timmer, lewis akenji, detlef p. van vuuren abstract: sustainable lifestyles and behaviour changes can be vital in climate change mitigation. various disciplines analyse the potential for such changes � but without much interaction. qualitative studies look into the change process (e.g. social practice theory), while quantitative studies often focus on their impact in stylised cases (e.g. energy modelling). a more holistic approach can provide insightful scenarios with diverse lifestyle changes based on informed narratives for quantifying long-term impacts. this research explores how comprehensive sustainable lifestyle scenarios, coined slim (sustainable living in models) scenarios, could contribute to transport and residential emission reductions. by translating and quantifying lifestyle scenario narratives through engagements with advisors and policymakers, we modelled two distinct lifestyle scenarios which differ in their degree of access to structural support. in one scenario, governments, corporations and cities leverage existing values and market systems to shape citizen and consumer preferences and everyday practices. in the other scenario, people adopt ambitious sustainable lifestyle behaviours and practices through peer-to-peer interaction and digital technology. we quantified the scenarios based on motivations, contextual factors, extent, and speed of lifestyle adoptions with regional differentiation. furthermore, we applied heterogenous adopter groups to determine the model inputs. we present the resulting pathways in per capita emissions and more detailed changes in total emissions via decomposition analyses. we conclude that regional differentiation of the scenario narratives and modelling of intra-regional differences allows accounting for equity in lifestyle changes to a certain extent. furthermore, new technologies are more important for enabling lifestyle change in a scenario with than a scenario without strong structural support. with strong structural support, lifestyle changes reduce transport and residential emissions to a larger degree (about 39% for global north and 27% for global south overall in 2050 relative to a �middle-of-the-road� ssp2 reference scenario in 2050). thus, lifestyle changes in larger systems change are essential for effective climate change mitigation. 5. title: misperception of drivers of risk alters willingness to adapt in the case of sargassum influxes in west africa authors: d. yaw atiglo, philip- neri jayson-quashigah, winnie sowah, emma l. tompkins, kwasi appeaning addo abstract: since 2011, large influxes of a brown macroalgae (pelagic sargassum seaweed) have proliferated across the tropical atlantic basin, its dispersal and seasonality theorized to be driven by localized and large scale winds and currents, in combination with changes in the atlantic meridional mode and ocean upwelling. these influxes seasonally affect coastal populations across the breadth of the tropical atlantic (from central america to west africa), causing damage to: economies, marine-based and non-marine coastal livelihoods, social functioning, health, ecology, and the aesthetics of the local environment. we use the ongoing sargassum influx in west africa as a case study of adaptation to an emergent (and compound) risk in progress that also contributes to the empirical gap in sargassum adaptation research in west africa. the research, in four sites in the western region of ghana employs data from 16 focus group discussions, six key informant interviews, and participant observation. we finds that due to a series of coincidences, participant communities perceive that sargassum influxes were seeded by and then annually driven by oil and gas exploration in western ghana. this is in contrast to scientific research that indicates that pelagic sargassum was initially seeded in the tropical atlantic basin (from the sargasso sea) in 2010 following an anomalous weather event in winter 2009�2010. following rogers� protection motivation theory, we explore the sources of information and the processing of that information to understand the divergence between scientific and community perceptions of the physical drivers. we find that community perceptions of oil and gas company responsibility for causing the sargassum problem leads the communities to perceive that the oil and gas companies should be responsible for the clean-up activities. communities are further constrained by a perceived lack of capacity to act. solutions to address this adaptation impasse could involve the government working with communities and the oil and gas industry to clarify the actual drivers of sargassum. such guidance may open opportunities for the government and industry to work with communities to address misperceptions of the scientific nature of the influxes. collaborative approaches, while addressing extant tensions, may also change the narrative about the problem, support affected communities to engage with adaptive measures, including re-use opportunities, and enhance community capacity to act. as a present-day emergent risk, pelagic sargassum provides an unusual yet contemporary empirical study of real-time adaptation and the central role of perceptions in shaping proactive adaptation and seeking exploitable opportunities from new environmental risks. 6. title: can redd succeed? occurrence and influence of various combinations of interventions in subnational initiatives authors: william d. sunderlin, stibniati s. atmadja, colas chervier, mella komalasari, ... erin o. sills abstract: the institutional predecessor of redd is the integrated conservation and development project (icdp) that combines restrictions on forest access and conversion (negative interventions) with non-conditional direct benefits (positive interventions) to compensate local stakeholders for income losses from those restrictions. the idea of redd was to improve on the icdp model with a different kind of positive intervention: conditional direct benefits, often known as payments for environmental services or pes. how has this idea played out in reality? in a sample of 17 (out of 377) active redd initiatives across the global south, we identified the combinations of interventions actually deployed and elicited household assessments of how those interventions affected their land use decisions with respect to forests. we found that 71 % of the households in our sample had participated in some number of forest interventions ranging from one to ten. about a quarter of those households were offered conditional direct benefits, most often in combination with non-conditional direct benefits. nearly half of the households had received only non-conditional direct benefits. many of those households were also subject to restrictions of various kinds. thus, rather than abandoning the well-established icdp approach in favor of the conditional incentives that conceptually define redd , most initiative proponents opted to deploy multiple interventions. their approach is validated by our finding that the likelihood a household reports that the interventions caused them to adopt land use changes that could be classified as reducing carbon emissions is positively and significantly related to the number of interventions that they experienced, but not affected by whether any of those interventions are conditional. we also find that restrictions play an important role: 37 % of the households were subject to at least one negative intervention, and those households were significantly more likely to report that the interventions had induced land use changes that could be classified as reducing carbon emissions. 7. title: quantifying community resilience to riverine hazards in bangladesh authors: amelie paszkowski, finn laurien, reinhard mechler, jim hall abstract: every year, 30�70% of bangladesh is inundated with flood waters, which combined with erosion, affect between 10 and 70 million people annually. rural riverine communities in bangladesh have long been identified as some of the poorest populations, most vulnerable to riverine hazards. however, these communities have, for generations, also developed resilience strategies � considered as the combination of absorptive, adaptive, and transformative approaches � to manage significant flooding and erosion. it is not clear whether such existing strategies are sufficient to generate resilience in the face of increasing hazards and growing pressures for land. in this study, we quantify community resilience to flooding and erosion of 35 of the most poverty-stricken and exposed communities in riverine bangladesh by applying the systematic resilience measurement framework provided by the flood resilience measurement for communities tool. the low levels of resilience observed in the riverine communities, as well as their continued focus on enhancing absorptive capacities are alarming, especially in the face of growing climate threats and continued population growth. innovative transformative responses are urgently required in riverine bangladesh, which align with and complement ongoing community-centred efforts to enhance rural resilience to riverine hazards. 8. title: synergies of interventions to promote pro-environmental behaviors � a meta-analysis of experimental studies authors: marius alt, hendrik bruns, nives dellavalle, ingrida murauskaite-bull abstract: addressing the threat of climate change requires effective environmental regulation to induce pro-environmental behavior. while various policy interventions already exist, combining different policies may offer greater effectiveness in dealing with market failures, multiple environmental objectives, and mitigating the regressive effects of single policies. in this meta-study, we investigate the potential synergies between policy interventions by rigorously assessing their comparative effectiveness when used individually versus in combination. we focus on experimental studies providing comparable findings from controlled settings to facilitate an empirically grounded understanding of climate policy synergies. our analysis reveals negative synergy effects, indicating that, on average, the analyzed policy mixes are less effective than the sum of their individual intervention effects. however, we also find that policy mixes can offset the negative effects of single policies. notably, combinations involving nudges and monetary incentives prove particularly effective in promoting pro-environmental behavior. lastly, behavioral changes induced by policy mixes tend to wane faster compared to single interventions once the policies are removed. our study provides important scientific and policy-relevant insights regarding the performance of policy mixes. 9. title: public policies and global forest conservation: empirical evidence from national borders authors: david wuepper, thomas crowther, thomas lauber, devin routh, ... jan b�rner abstract: protecting the world�s remaining forests is a global policy priority. even though the value of the world�s remaining forests is global in nature, much of the protection has to come from national policies. here, we combine global, high resolution remote sensing data on forest outcomes (tree-cover loss, forest degradation, net primary production) and two complementary econometric research designs for causal inference to first quantify how much it matters in which country a forest is located, secondly, the role of public policies, and third, under which conditions such pubic policies tend to be most successful. we find considerable border discontinuities in remotely sensed forest outcomes around the world (in a regression discontinuity design) and these are largely explained by countries� policies (using a differences-in-discontinuities design). we estimate that public policies reduce the risk of tree cover loss by almost 4 percentage points globally, but there is large variation around this. the best explanations we find for these heterogenous treatment effects are a country�s policy enforcement, its policy stringency, its property rights, and its rule of law (in that order). our results motivate international cooperation to finance and improve (a) countries� public policies for forest protection and (b) countries� capacity to implement and enforce them well. 10. title: global energy scenarios: a geopolitical reality check authors: mathieu blondeel, james price, michael bradshaw, steve pye, ... gavin bridge abstract: the ongoing global energy system transformation (gest) has attracted the attention of multiple academic disciplines and practitioners, approaching the process with different analytical and conceptual tools. we explore the �integration gap� that exists between, on the one hand, energy system modelling and the stylised scenarios they use, and on the other, energy geopolitics. we consider how these approaches can complement each other to further our understanding of the global energy system�s future. using a novel qualitative analytical framework, we review the extent to which a range of state-of-the-art global energy scenarios capture and reflect key issues in energy geopolitics in their narratives and model implementation. we find that few scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. those that do often treat it as a barrier to decarbonisation efforts that are aligned with the climate objectives of the paris agreement. normative, paris-aligned scenarios describe smooth processes of change where cooperation and coordination between countries are assumed and where geopolitics is often completely absent. our findings emphasise the need for a more intricate understanding of the difference between �paper transitions� and the real-world messiness and complexities of gest, where geopolitics has a dual quality of simultaneously accelerating and hindering the transformation process. 11. title: exploring natural and social drivers of forest degradation in post-soviet georgia authors: owen cortner, shijuan chen, pontus olofsson, florian gollnow, ... rachael d. garrett abstract: the caucasus mountains harbor high concentrations of endemic species and provide an abundance of ecosystem services yet are significantly understudied compared to other ecosystems in eurasia. in the country of georgia, at the heart of the caucasus region, forest degradation has been the largest land change process over the last thirty years. the prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. yet, since independence from the soviet union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. we combine newly available land-cover change estimates, georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. our analysis controls for concurrent changes in climate that would affect degradation and examines variation at the regional (state) level from 2011 to 2019, as well as at the national level from 1987 to 2019. we find that higher winter temperature and drought are associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought are associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new forest code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change. 12. title: scaling mechanisms of energy communities: a comparison of 28 initiatives authors: daniel petrovics, dave huitema, mendel giezen, barbara vis abstract: energy communities have mushroomed over the past decades. these initiatives have scaled, that is replicated their experiences, expanded membership, and diversified involved actors and technologies. the picture existing literature paints is hopeful that the scaling of local-scale action may translate into global-scale impact and thus effectively contribute to combating climate change. however, important gaps remain in understanding the (combinations of) conditions which are necessary for scaling with this goal in mind. this article pushes the boundaries of knowledge further by examining and comparing 28 energy communities through a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (qca) and by identifying the necessary conditions of actionable scaling mechanisms. our analysis identifies a high number (8) of necessary (combinations of) conditions for scaling. addressing a strong need amongst policy makers to facilitate broader scaling of community initiatives, this article offers concrete insights on mechanisms that need to be in place to scale energy communities. insights are developed on � for example � the type of capacity support needed, support structures and the tools needed for connecting communities with each other. these insights help corroborate empirically, for the first time the crucial leverage points that will support strategies for upscaling the impact of energy communities, and will enable them to flourish as an essential element of the global climate governance system. 13. title: the infrastructure cost of permafrost degradation for the northern hemisphere authors: haodong jin, xiaoqing peng, oliver w. frauenfeld, yuan huang, ... cuicui mu abstract: warming and resulting degradation of near-surface permafrost in cold regions across the globe has and will continue to lead to a series of hazards. these include land subsidence and weakening of the substrate�s bearing capacity, thus threatening infrastructure and the socioeconomics in permafrost regions. these potential hazards shorten the lifespan of infrastructure, increase the cost of infrastructure maintenance and replacement, which is of great importance to a variety of stakeholders. in northern hemisphere permafrost regions, more than 34% of the population and 44% of the infrastructure will be at high risk by the end of this century. due to the degradation of permafrost, infrastructure will require an additional investment of approximately $205�572 billion to maintain the operation of engineering and service infrastructure in 2085, based on projections with a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. 14. title: immediate and future challenges of using electric vehicles for promoting energy efficiency in africa�s clean energy transition authors: augustine sadiq okoh, magnus chidi onuoha abstract: electric vehicle (ev) adoption in africa is being driven by both structural and non-structural pressures. hurdles to ev adoption as a tool for low carbon development are explained, drawing on interviews with energy specialists from nigeria, kenya, ethiopia, south africa, and cameroon. findings point to multiple-scale tensions between energy transition and access, between policy design and implementation, and between the spread of evs and the power generation required to spur growth. existing ev infrastructure is dependent on stranded assets from fossil fuel sources that are about to be abandoned for africa�s power supply. scaling up renewable energy systems will be more efficient if operational costs for fossil fuel infrastructure are switched to capital costs. this calls for a fresh business strategy designed to address africa's desire to ensure energy efficiency that will spur the acceptance of evs, while also deploying renewable energy to reach global climate goals. by using a combination of market and policy instruments, a new regulatory framework, accessible financing, and stronger price signals can help phase out aging fossil fuel infrastructure and spark an efficiency revolution. 15. title: micro-scale transformations in sustainability practices: insights from new migrant populations in growing urban settlements authors: mumuni abu, samuel n.a. codjoe, w. neil adger, sonja fransen, ... caroline zickgraf abstract: development that is inclusive and sustainable requires significant social and environmental transformations from current trajectories, building on demographic realities such as changing profiles of populations, and increased levels of mobility. migration is a major driving force of urbanisation in all global regions, partly facilitated through emerging technologies and declining costs of movement and communication. social transformations associated with increased migration are highly uneven but include shifts in the location of economic activities, major urban growth, and changing individual incentives and social constraints on sustainability trajectories. yet, there is limited empirical evidence on how observed population movements can both challenge and promote sustainable transformations. this paper examines how migration transforms places and societies, by providing new evidence on the behaviours and practices of individuals who are part of such transformations as they assimilate, converge or remain distinctive to prior populations. focusing on individuals in rapidly expanding cities in the global south, this study uses new biographical life-history survey data from accra, ghana, to examine the barriers and enablers of sustainability practices among diverse types of migrants and a sample of non-migrants. the study uses data from 1,163 individuals: international migrants from the west african sub-region (5 5 9), internal migrants (2 9 9), and non-migrants (3 0 5) in accra. the findings show that sustainability practices established before migration are predictors of current sustainability practices, including proactive recycling, conservation activities, and choice of mode of transportation, but that there is some convergence between behaviours, reflecting assimilation, place attachment and other factors. internal migrants in accra exhibit stronger sustainability practices than international migrants. individual levels of poverty, poor infrastructural development, and perceptions about life satisfaction in the neighbourhood negatively affect sustainability practices among all respondents. these results suggest that poverty and social exclusion are critical to addressing sustainability issues in urban contexts. it is important for policy makers to address issues of urban poverty, cumulative deprivation, and inequality as strong barriers to the adoption of sustainability practices in urban areas. 16. title: emergent network patterns of internal displacement in somalia driven by natural disasters and conflicts authors: woi oh, rachata muneepeerakul, daniel rubenstein, simon levin abstract: in somalia, extreme droughts, floods, and conflicts have generated a great wave of internally displaced persons (idps) involuntarily moving within the country�s boundaries. despite increasing concerns about the idp problem, we still do not fully understand the emergent properties of idp flows from the network perspective. particularly lacking is quantitative information on how natural disasters and conflicts differently or similarly shape idp networks. these knowledge gaps are critical for idp studies with complex interactions because the gaps may misconnect idp flows with socio-environmental data at inappropriate spatial scales. to address these gaps, this study applies a series of network analyses to compare emergent patterns in disaster-induced and conflict-induced idp networks. push patterns were random without hub formation in both cases. social connections were critical to incoming idp flows but not to outgoing idp flows. natural disasters and conflicts produced similar triadic structures of idp networks, suggesting possible interactions between natural disasters and conflicts in driving idp flows. community patterns were more scattered by the number and formation in the conflict-induced idp network than in the disaster-induced idp network. from the community detection, natural disasters were likely to move idps within the regional boundaries, but conflicts relocated idps to relatively remote areas out of the boundaries. the communities were more modular in the disaster-induced idp network than in the conflict-induced idp network. these findings are useful for understanding idp network patterns as a starting point for developing a nexus between climate, conflict, and migration. 17. title: blinded by sunspots: revealing the multidimensional and intersectional inequities of solar energy in india authors: ryan stock, benjamin k. sovacool abstract: studies of energy transitions have historically lacked a holistic, multi-scalar and multi-site accounting of social and environmental impacts of projects. scholars increasingly point to the need for integrated studies that highlight impacts at various stages of lifecycles and scales of governance in the normative pursuit of energy justice. in this study, we examine the social and environmental inequities within the solar pv value chain in india from multiple scales using an original dataset and comparative case study approach, including multiple site visits and embedded ethnography. we utilized a mixed methodological approach to data collection that included household surveys (n = 120), semi-structured interviews (n = 43), focus group discussions (n = 6) and naturalistic observation (n = 9 site visits over 24 days) across the states of uttar pradesh, karnataka, rajasthan, delhi and tamil nadu at six different locations. we buttress recent work examining solar injustices from a �whole systems� perspective, taking a multidimensional approach through an intersectional lens. drawing from fieldwork and the literatures of energy justice and political ecology, we ask : what are the social and ecological impacts or equity concerns of each stage of the solar photovoltaic value chain in india? at each solar node, there are demographic, spatial, interspecies and temporal inequities occurring. demographic inequities include resource dispossession, loss of livelihoods and hazards exposure for marginalized groups. spatial inequities include distributional injustices for capital and electricity, rural land enclosures and substandard infrastructure. interspecies inequities include ecosystem contamination, habitat destruction and imperiling wildlife. temporal inequities include time burdens placed on marginalized groups, multi-decadal time horizons for inequitable projects to pay off and the long-term degradation of the environment. we conclude by reflecting on the stakes of solar development in india and offering policy recommendations that could engender a more equitable solar sector and chart future research agendas. 18. title: are civilizations destined to collapse? lessons from the mediterranean bronze age authors: igor linkov, s.e. galaitsi, benjamin d. trump, elizaveta pinigina, ... maksim kitsak abstract: as the world faces multiple crises, lessons from humanity�s past can potentially suggest ways to decrease disruptions and increase societal resilience. from 1200 to 1100 bce, several advanced societies in the eastern mediterranean suffered dramatic collapse. though the causes of the late bronze age collapse are still debated, contributing factors may include a �perfect storm� of multiple stressors: social and economic upheaval, earthquake clusters, climate change, and others. we examined how collapse might have propagated through the societies� connections by modeling the eastern mediterranean late bronze age trade and socio-political networks. our model shows that the late bronze age societies made a robust network, where any single node�s collapse was insufficient to catalyze the regional collapse that historically transpired. however, modeled scenarios indicate that some paired node disruptions could cause cascading failure within the network. subsequently, a holistic understanding of the region�s network incentive structures and feedback loops can help societies anticipate compounding risk conditions that might lead to widespread collapse and allow them to take appropriate actions to mitigate or adapt societal dependencies. such network analyses may be able to provide insight as to how we can prevent a collapse of socio-political, economic and trade networks similar to what occurred at the end of the late bronze age. though such data-intensive analytics were unavailable to these bronze age regions, modern society may be able to leverage historical lessons in order to foster improved robustness and resilience to compounding threats. our work shows that civilization collapses are preventable; we are not necessarily destined to collapse. 19. title: leveraging keystone agents in extractive industries to advance sustainability authors: bert scholtens abstract: natural resource extraction has a lasting and dramatic impact on the natural environment as well as far-reaching social effects. as such, public policy and governmental regulation are crucial for a transition to sustainability. however, on their own, these have shown to be insufficient to achieve such transformation. changing commitment and conduct of the extractives too is important to transit. firms in the extractives are large and highly international, and their owners are decisive for businesses� conduct. therefore, it is relevant to determine whom and how to influence to transit towards sustainability. to this extent, we study dominant firms and their owners in the top-10 international extractive industries. we establish that both natural resource markets and ownership of keystone agents are highly concentrated: the three largest companies earn 70% of the revenues in the ten industries studied, and the three largest shareholders in these companies on average have 22% of the shares of the keystone firms. this helps explain why regulation has been rather ineffective so far. we discuss several options to influence keystone agents. we conclude that advancing sustainability in extractives requires leveraging a limited number of keystone agents. 20. title: broadening resilience: an evaluation of policy and planning for drinking water resilience in 100 us cities authors: mirit b. friedman, sara hughes, christine j. kirchhoff, eleanor rauh, ... jalyn m. prout abstract: around the world, drinking water systems provide safe, accessible drinking water to the communities they serve. while they are faced with a growing number of short and long-term challenges, assessing the resilience of drinking water systems�or their ability to cope with disturbances and surprise and continuously adapt to stress and change�is an ongoing challenge. many drinking water resilience assessment methodologies focus narrowly on the technical dimensions of the resilience of infrastructure systems, ignoring the human or environmental dimensions, and consider resilience to the present, ignoring resilience to future change. to fill this gap, we developed a conceptual framework and scoring methodology for evaluating municipal-scale policy and planning for drinking water system resilience. our approach considers social, technical, and environmental elements of resilience at broad spatial and temporal scales. we then used this methodology to assess policy and planning for drinking water resilience in 100 u.s. cities. we found that municipalities are at very different stages in their policy and planning for drinking water resilience, particularly in terms of the attention they give to climate change and their consideration of the broader social dimensions of resilience. overall, larger cities and those with more liberal populations are likely to have higher policy and planning scores. the findings highlight the variation in municipal policy and planning for drinking water system resilience, and the importance of community characteristics as drivers of resilience planning. our approach is transferable to assessing resilience for drinking water systems within and beyond the u.s. 21. title: assessment of extreme temperature to fiscal pressure in china authors: zhongfei chen, xin zhang, fanglin chen abstract: this paper investigates the impact of climate change on government fiscal pressure using local governments� fiscal data in china from 2000 to 2020. while previous studies have extensively explored the effects of climate change on individuals and economies, there has been limited research on the negative effects of climate change from a government fiscal perspective. our study makes contributions by using county-level fiscal data in china, allowing for a detailed examination of the fiscal implications of weather extremes. moreover, we comprehensively analyze the underlying mechanisms involving population mobility, industrial structure, and electricity consumption. the empirical results indicate that each additional day of extreme temperature in a year leads to a cny 0.002 billion increase in the general public budget deficit, which is equivalent to 0.1093% of the local fiscal deficit. furthermore, local governments heavily reliant on agriculture, experiencing low electricity consumption, and significant population outflows face even greater challenges. notably, medical insurance and the �province-managing-county� reform program emerge as crucial mitigating factors against fiscal pressures. by providing a thorough assessment of climate change�s fiscal impact on local governments, this research contributes to the theoretical foundation for governmental initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions. 22. title: the organizational structure of global gene drive research authors: florian rabitz abstract: gene drives are a proposed biotechnological intervention that could grant unprecedented control over key challenges of global sustainable development by potentially providing effective countermeasures to invasive alien species, agricultural pests or disease vectors. gene drives also raise complex biosafety challenges and face scrutiny due to an allegedly-outsized involvement of certain philanthropic- and military funders. against this background, this text is the first to develop a systematic account of the organizational structure that underpins global gene drive research. applying social network analysis to data on co-authorship and research funding, i show that global gene drive research has limited organizational and geographical diversity and is firmly dominated by elite us-based organizations, with organizations from developing countries either playing marginal roles or being excluded altogether. additionally, a preliminary analysis of financial transfers suggests that an overwhelming share of global research funding passes from the bill and melinda gates foundation to imperial college london; and from the us national institutes of health to various first- and second-tier us research universities. overall, the organizational structure implies a considerable legitimacy deficit in global scientific collaboration on a controversial novel biotechnology with significant biosafety risks yet potentially transformative impacts on key challenges of sustainable development. 23. title: the role of visions in sustainability transformations: exploring tensions between the agrarwende vanguard vision and an established sociotechnical imaginary of agriculture in germany authors: christine polzin abstract: although much research recognises the importance of visions as key ingredients of transformations to sustainability, it remains unclear how and why some visions become collectively binding. this paper uses the lens of sociotechnical imaginaries, i.e., collectively shared, institutionally stabilised, and publicly performed visions of desirable futures, to analyse the so-called agrarwende (agricultural transformation), a sustainability-oriented reform of german agriculture based on a vision of transformative change towards organic farming. methodologically, the investigation draws on published historical and contemporary data sources for an in-depth case study of the agrarwende using content analysis. it shows how a particular sociotechnical imaginary has shaped german agriculture for many decades and explores how three of its constitutive elements - its policy style, expertise, and risk framing � conflict with the vanguard vision of the agrarwende. the findings suggest that these elements have reinforced one another in shaping the trajectory of the agricultural system, thus co-producing a strong socio-political order in favour of industrial agriculture at the expense of an alternative set of policies, expertise, and risk framing that supports organic agriculture. taken together, the findings highlight how knowledge and politics shape debates and controversies about what is deemed a desirable future, what is at stake, and for whom. 24. title: scaling indigenous-led natural resource management authors: arundhati jagadish, anna freni-sterrantino, yifan he, tanya o' garra, ... morena mills abstract: rights-holders, practitioners, and researchers recognize the importance of indigenous-led resource management for building a more ecologically just world and addressing climate change and biodiversity loss. yet, it remains unclear how to support them in a way that increases their spatial extent and ensuring impact on equitable biodiversity conservation. we address this gap by using diffusion of innovations theory to explain the rapid spread of an indigenous-led network of locally managed marine areas in fiji. we found that 74.9 percent of adopters had a previous adopter as their nearest neighbor, and that despite contrasting patterns of adoption at the island level, such patterns could be accounted for by: perceived relative advantage, village chiefly status, distance to tourism hotspots, and presence of district-level management committees, support organizations, and trust. these insights can inform the design and implementation of indigenous-led approaches that can scale appropriately and respond to the global environmental crisis. 25. title: mapping wildfire jurisdictional complexity reveals opportunities for regional co-management authors: kate jones, jelena vukomanovic, branda nowell, shannon mcgovern abstract: wildfires often burn across boundaries affecting multiple jurisdictions, landowners and levels of government. wildfire co-management across jurisdictions is expected to increase in complexity as wildfire severity, size, and frequency increase due to climate change, and growing populations bring more people into close proximity with wildfire. a systematic method to assess jurisdictional complexity for wildfire management is needed to effectively allocate resources and plan for future wildfire management conditions. here, we developed an open-source framework of decision rules to count jurisdictions and landowners by coupling nearly 9,000 historic wildfire footprints that occurred across 43 u.s. states between 1999 and 2020 with geospatial jurisdictional data. we found that the number of annual wildfires greater than 500 acres has increased through time, with a proportional increase in the number of the highly complex (>7 jurisdictions; >3 levels of government) wildfires. most wildfires burned 2�3 jurisdictions and 1 or 2 land ownerships, and the most common co-managed wildfires occurred on federal and private lands. on average, the western united states, specifically the mediterranean california ecoregion, has more jurisdictionally complex wildfires, but the eastern united states, namely the appalachian mountains, has localized areas that experienced multiple wildfires with high and varied jurisdictional complexity. the prairies of texas contained the largest extent of average low complexity wildfires. of the 43 states that contained a wildfire, 41 had a census place that was burned or within 5 miles of a wildfire boundary, and overall, the annual number of census places near wildfires appears to be increasing through time. we demonstrate a framework that can be used to quantify jurisdictional complexity from observed wildfire boundaries and provide a baseline for discussing jurisdictional complexity at a national, regional, and sub-regional scale. this framework may also be adapted to other hazards or multi-jurisdictional phenomena that have geospatial boundary objects. 26. title: beyond the binary of trapped populations and voluntary immobility: a people-centered perspective on environmental change and human immobility at lake urmia, iran authors: sebastian fernand transiskus, monir gholamzadeh bazarbash abstract: empirical research on the links between environmental change and human (im)mobility has made considerable progress in the last decade. however, most attention is given to migration rather than understanding immobility, where human-centered perspectives are scarce and various regions remain critically understudied. this paper seeks to address these deficits. methodologically based on 75 qualitative in-depth interviews and 8 focus group sessions with rural residents around desiccating lake urmia (iran), the study takes individual perceptions of environmental degradation and lived experiences of immobility as its fundamental starting point. it investigates what (in)tangible losses occur and analyses what matters most in shaping the aspirations and capabilities to migrate or stay. the findings provide unique empirical evidence of the multifaceted dimensions along the spectrum of immobility, moving beyond the prevailing binary views of voluntary immobility and trapped populations. a key finding of this study is the elucidation of �ambivalent immobility�, comprising individuals whose (im)mobility aspirations are complex and contradictory: they want to stay, but also leave, constantly weighing their growing local dissatisfaction against their attachments to place and the psychological/economic costs of migration. another novel contribution concerns �precarious immobility�, expanding our knowledge of how individuals understand themselves as trapped. grounded in capability constraints and emotional distress exacerbated by environmental change, individuals from this group did not voice any (im)mobility aspirations. this distinguished them from the involuntary or acquiescent immobile residents in the study, who despite capability constraints either aspired to migrate or expressed a preference to stay. thus, this paper highlights the complexity of aspirations in contexts of environmental degradation and underscores the need for more qualitative research to complement quantitative efforts to foster a more nuanced understanding of the diverse causes, dimensions, and consequences of immobility. 27. title: self-governance mediates small-scale fishing strategies, vulnerability and adaptive response authors: timothy h. frawley, blanca gonz�lez-mon, mateja nenadovic, fiona gladstone, ... xavier basurto abstract: as global change accelerates, natural resource-dependent communities must respond and adapt. small-scale fisheries, essential for coastal livelihoods and food security, are considered among the most vulnerable of these coupled social-ecological systems. while previous studies have examined vulnerability and adaptation in fisheries at the individual, household, and community level, these scales of organization are inconsistent with many of the legal and regulatory frameworks that function in practice to mediate behavior, decision-making, and adaptation. here, we use cooperative- and privately-owned fishing enterprises in northwest mexico as a case study to examine how different forms of marine self-governance experience and respond to climate shocks. leveraging social-ecological network methods to examine changes in fisheries participation and vulnerability during a recent period of pronounced regional oceanographic change, our analysis suggests that: 1) different forms of ssf self-governance (and the fishing strategies and harvest portfolios with which they are associated) help determine the impacts of and response to environmental change; and 2) that there may be important trade-offs between short-term responses which function to prevent or mitigate lost fishing revenue and long-term changes in climate vulnerability. in particular large fishing cooperatives, predicted to be highly vulnerable on the basis of network theoretic metrics, exceeded expectations (maintaining or increasing resource revenues) while demonstrating a degree of path dependency that may function to increase sensitivity and undermine resilience as climate change progresses. in providing an empirical evaluation of how self-governance arrangements characterized by different group sizes, access regimes and levels of cooperation respond to system perturbation, we aim to advance common pool resource theory while offering targeted guidance for the development of more nuanced and equitable climate adaptation policies. 28. title: ambient vulnerability authors: caitlin robinson, joe williams abstract: in this paper we introduce the concept of ambient vulnerability. ambience concerns the overlapping and shifting material forms that constitute a person�s surroundings � including (but not limited to) air quality, flow, temperature, humidity, noise and light � that contribute to their health, wellbeing and (dis)comfort. building on a growing movement across a range of disciplines towards the study of socialmaterial relations, we suggest that ambience is an important approach for critically understanding the complex interconnections among nature, society, and technology in the production of lived ecologies. the vulnerability framing locates our expressly political understanding of ambience, reflecting and reinforcing social inequalities. 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