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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�$�bjbj�n�n2&��a��a� ��""��8��4�0vl)))))]]]�u�u�u�u�u�u�u$�w�rz<�u�]]]]]�u��))4�u " " "]z�)�)�u "]�u " " ")��@��կ�� ( "�uv00v "�z� :�z " "�0�z��r�]] "]]]]]�u�u9!�]]]0v]]]]��z]]]]]]]]]"qs: global environmental change volume 70, issue 5, september 2021 1. title: comparing public attitudes towards energy technologies in australia and the uk: the role of political ideology authors: zeynep clulow, michele ferguson, peta ashworth, david reiner. abstract: we explore the relationship between political ideology and public attitudes towards a range of energy technologies (namely: biomass, coal, shale (or coal seam) gas, natural gas, carbon capture and storage, hydroelectricity, nuclear, solar thermal and photovoltaic, wave and wind energy). our empirical analysis draws on the results of two similar nationally representative public surveys that were conducted in australia and the uk in 2017. our findings suggest that political ideology is significantly associated with public attitudes towards energy technologies. specifically, supporters of left-leaning political parties tend to be more supportive of renewables and opposed to biomass, shale (coal seam) gas, nuclear and fossil fuel energies compared to right-leaning individuals. we also create an alternative ideological proxy to capture the relative emphasis that parties place on the environment and economy and find that supporters of environmentally focused parties generally express similar energy preferences to left-leaning individuals and economy-focused respondents align with right-leaning attitudes. our findings are robust to different choices of proxy. 2. title: the opportunity cost of delaying climate action: peatland restoration and resilience to climate change authors: klaus glenk, michela faccioli, julia martin-ortega, christoph schulze, jacqueline potts. abstract: ecosystem restoration and, in particular, peatland restoration, are considered a promising greenhouse gas (ghg) mitigation strategy to move towards net zero emissions. to remain within acceptable limits for projected warming scenarios, inaction with respect to ghg mitigation in the short term implies a need for even larger removals of ghgs in the longer term, which can be conceptualized as a �mitigation debt�. this paper explores the economic implications of delaying ghg mitigation through ecosystem restoration using data of a large survey (n = 1377) that included a choice experiment to elicit the public�s willingness to pay (wtp) for peatland restoration in scotland, uk. the valuation specifically considers the interaction between the timing of restoration action and long-term ecosystem resilience. we find that respondents have a substantial wtp for peatland restoration. importantly, we find considerable benefits for early restoration action (up to �191 million annually in our case study), which is linked to an increased resilience of peatlands under future climate change. this demonstrates that delaying restoration and thus accumulating a mitigation debt has an important opportunity cost that substantially decreases the related economic benefits. attitudes towards climate change and climate change beliefs are found to explain variation in the public�s wtp. our research strengthens the economic argument for not delaying climate change mitigation through ecosystem restoration, demonstrating that the mitigation debt also translates into a welfare loss. to fully realise the potential benefits associated with immediate mitigation using peatland restoration, however, more needs to be understood about the mechanisms that facilitate large-scale implementation in practice. 3. title: empirical testing of the visualizations of climate change mitigation scenarios with citizens: a comparison among germany, poland, and france authors: georgios xexakis, evelina trutnevyte. abstract: while scenarios are used extensively for communication about climate change mitigation, little is known about the interpretation of these scenarios by citizens. we conducted a cross-country empirical evaluation of scenario visualizations for global mitigation, using online surveys in germany (n = 379), poland (n = 223), and france (n = 225). each respondent received visualizations of the required changes in global carbon dioxide emissions and composition of electricity supply (fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable sources) for limiting global warming to 1.5 �c. we evaluated the effects of respondents� demographics, prior beliefs, numeracy, and graph literacy on the reading accuracy and knowledge gains from the visualizations. we also included an experimental between-groups design on visualization format, where four groups received different graph formats (steep or gradual graphs with depictions of uncertainty ranges or scenario ensembles) and the fifth group received a table. results showed that higher education level, numeracy, and graph literacy increased reading accuracy in all countries, while age reduced them. respondents with prior beliefs about climate change mitigation that matched the information in the visualizations had also higher reading accuracy and knowledge gains. while the effects of different visualization formats were comparatively minor, customizing formats according to demographic and country differences was used to reduce adverse effects from these differences. these results emphasize the need to design visualizations that match characteristics of the intended audience and could inform better communication of climate change mitigation scenarios to non-expert audience. 4. title: how qualitative approaches matter in climate and ocean change research: uncovering contradictions about climate concern authors: anna lena bercht. abstract: there is growing acknowledgement of the need for both quantitative and qualitative methods to unravel complex human-environment interactions and inform a more advanced move towards global sustainability. nonetheless, qualitative methods still play an understated role in climate and ocean change research. one important reason for this are continuing tendencies in the natural sciences to value �hard� and value-free quantitative approaches over �soft� and value-laden qualitative approaches. this paper argues that to overcome such methodological reservations, it is necessary to inform not only about the key characteristics of qualitative research but also � and this has received little attention � about the concrete empirical insights that can be gained from qualitative as opposed to quantitative data, despite sharing the same research focus. the environmental literature still lacks relevant examples from fieldwork that explain in detail how exactly decisive information is elicited from specific qualitative datasets, thereby illustrating how qualitative approaches matter. this paper seeks to help fill this gap by demonstrating to sceptical quantitative researchers the necessity and added value of integrating qualitative data in global environmental change research and highlighting impeding factors. this is done by presenting empirical findings about climate and ocean change adaptation in norwegian coastal fisheries and elucidating how different qualitative interview techniques reveal that fishers who initially state that they do not worry about climate change actually do worry, and vice versa. self-categorisation theory from social psychology is used to better explain such contradictory statements. detecting salient but masked climate concern and understanding the reasons behind it are crucial for avoiding misleading conclusions and effectively tailoring adaptation strategies to the requirements of specific audiences. 5. title: climate change action as a project of identity: eight meta-analyses authors: stepan vesely, torsten masson, parissa chokrai, anna m. becker, immo fritsche, christian a. kl�ckner, lorenza tiberio, giuseppe carrus, angelo panno. abstract: identity can improve our understanding of personal climate action, particularly when climate action becomes an expression of a person�s self. however, it is unclear which kind of self or identity is most relevant. building on a comprehensive series of eight meta-analyses (using data from 188 published articles, n = 414,282 participants) this research systematically compares how strongly climate-friendly intentions and behaviors are associated with place identity, personal connectedness to nature, environmental self-identity (i.e., personal self-definition as a pro-environmentally acting person), and social identity (i.e., identification with social groups). results suggest robust, medium-sized to strong links of both pro-environmental intentions and behaviors to people�s nature connectedness (r = 0.44/0.52), environmental self-identity (r = 0.62/0.56), and identification with groups considered to support climate-friendly behavior (r = 0.48/0.51), but markedly weaker effects for identification with groups which are unrelated to environmental topics (r = 0.30/0.15) and for place identity (r = 0.18/0.32). implications for policy interventions and psychological theory are discussed. 6. title: redd finance in brazil, indonesia and vietnam: stakeholder perspectives between 2009-2019 authors: thuy thu pham, moira moeliono, jennie yuwono, bimo dwisatrio, patr�cia gallo. abstract: financing redd is complex, due to the need to seek answers not only to the question of who should finance redd , but also who should benefit from it. this paper examines the perceptions of redd stakeholders in brazil, indonesia and vietnam on different aspects of financing: who should finance redd and who should receive redd benefits for what. our findings show these issues are political, driven by economic considerations at national level and � despite the narrative of inclusive, participatory decision making � are largely determined by governments. lack of finance was thereby not always considered by national policy actors to be the most significant challenge during 2010�2019; rather other issues � like lack of knowledge on redd by relevant actors; ineffective coordination between state agencies, the private sector and civil society; unclear tenure rights; ineffectively addressing the main deforestation drivers; low law enforcement capacity; and unclear benefit-sharing mechanisms � have also been perceived to impede redd implementation and payment distributions. 7. title: the trap of climate change-induced �natural� disasters and inequality authors: federica cappelli, valeria costantini, davide consoli. abstract: the purpose of the present paper is to disentangle the mechanisms that connect climate change-induced disasters, inequality and vulnerability by accounting for both directions of causality. we do so by means of a simultaneous equations approach on a panel of 149 countries from 1992 to 2018. the empirical analysis reveals that countries with higher levels of income inequality suffer greater damages when hit by a natural disaster. at the same time, inequality is found to increase the number of people affected by disasters. our analysis discloses the existence of a vicious cycle that keeps some countries stuck in a disasters-inequality trap. 8. title: the global value of coastal wetlands for storm protection authors: robert costanza, sharolyn j. anderson, paul sutton, kenneth mulder, obadiah mulder, ida kubiszewski, xuantong wang, xin liu, octavio p�rez-maqueo, m. luisa martinez, diane jarvis, greg dee. abstract: coastal wetlands provide a range of valuable ecosystem services, including protecting coastal communities from storms. we estimated for the first time the global value of these storm protection services for all coastal wetlands for both damages avoided and lives saved. we used the historical tracks of 1,014 tropical cyclones since 1902 that recorded property damage and/or human casualties in 71 countries/regions. we used bayesian and ols statistical techniques to relate storm damages and lives lost to: wind speed, storm forward speed, the year of the storm, the volume of ocean water proximal to landfall, and gdp, population, and coastal wetlands in the swath of the storm. based on current storm probabilities, we estimate the median annual global value of coastal wetlands for storm protection at $447 billion/yr (2015$us) ($213 - $837 billion/yr, 90% ci) and 4,620 lives saved per year (3,320 � 6,550, 90% ci). the 40 million hectares of coastal wetlands in storm prone areas provided an average of $11,000/ha/yr in avoided storm damages. the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones has been increasing in recent decades and is projected to further increase with climate change. consequently, the already significant benefits from protecting and restoring coastal wetlands will become increasingly important and valuable in the future. these results justify much larger investments in conservation and restoration of coastal wetlands. 9. title: the political ecology playbook for ecosystem restoration: principles for effective, equitable, and transformative landscapes authors: tracey osborne, samara brock, robin chazdon, susan chomba, eva garen, victoria gutierrez, rebecca lave, manon lefevre, juanita sundberg. abstract: the urgency of restoring ecosystems to improve human wellbeing and mitigate climate and biodiversity crises is attracting global attention. the un decade on ecosystem restoration (2021�2030) is a global call to action to support the restoration of degraded ecosystems. and yet, many forest restoration efforts, for instance, have failed to meet restoration goals; indeed, they worsened social precarities and ecological conditions. by merely focusing on symptoms of forest loss and degradation, these interventions have neglected the underlying issues of equity and justice driving forest decline. to address these root causes, thus creating socially just and sustainable solutions, we develop the political ecology playbook for ecosystem restoration. we outline a set of ten principles for achieving long-lasting, resilient, and equitable ecosystem restoration. these principles are guided by political ecology, a framework that addresses environmental concerns from a broadly political economic perspective, attending to power, politics, and equity within specific geographic and historical contexts. drawing on the chain of explanation, this multi-scale, cross-landscapes playbook aims to produce healthy relationships between people and nature that are ecologically, socially, and economically just � and thus sustainable and resilient � while recognizing the political nature of such relationships. we argue that the political ecology playbook should guide ecosystem restoration worldwide. 10. title: seawalls or social recovery? the role of policy networks and design in disaster recovery authors: timothy fraser, daniel p. aldrich, andrew small. abstract: this mixed-methods study examines the case of 30 advisory committees across 25 municipalities in miyagi and iwate prefectures in northeast japan after the 3/11 triple disasters. drawing on synthetic control experiments, social network analysis, and case studies, we test whether the design of these committees� policies or the traits of these committee networks improved the recovery trajectories of municipalities. we find that communities highly connected to this network of advisory committees saw better economic recovery than expected, especially when researchers, hyper-connected individuals, or plans for community centers were involved, controlling for disaster damage, infrastructure quality, social vulnerability, governance capacity, emergency services, and social capital. our results bring with them a number of concrete policy recommendations for disaster managers, local residents, and decision makers. 11. title: pursuing sustainable nitrogen management following the �5 ps� principles: production, people, planet, policy and partnerships authors: xia liang, shu kee lam, xin zhang, oene oenema, deli chen. abstract: nitrogen (n) is an essential nutrient to support life, but if poorly managed, can adversely affect the environment, ecosystems and human health. the global challenge of achieving food security with minimal ecosystem degradation and human health impacts hinges on sustainable n management, which goes beyond farm level and requires concerted efforts from a range of stakeholders. while various metrics have been developed to inform n management, most of them focus on one or two stakeholders only. few efforts have tried to integrate n metrics to derive a coherent set of actions for all stakeholders. here we propose the �5 ps� principles (production, people, planet, policy and partnerships) that shape guidelines for sustainable n management with multidimensional n metrics (i.e., n use efficiency, virtual n factor, n footprint, n neutrality, reactive n spatial intensity, n boundary, n price and n equity). the �5 ps� principles address the environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability. these principles allow multidimensional evaluation of n management, highlight specific areas for improvement, direct future research, and support the design of effective policy and legislation. they facilitate collective actions of producers, consumers, researchers and policy makers towards sustainable n management regionally and globally. 12. title: income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand authors: adam m. komarek, shahnila dunston, dolapo enahoroc, h. charles j. godfray, mario herrero, daniel mason-d'croz, karl m. rich, peter scarborough, marco springmann, timothy b. sulser, keith wiebe, dirk willenbockel. abstract: in recent decades there has been a sustained and substantial shift in human diets across the globe towards including more livestock-derived foods. continuing debates scrutinize how these dietary shifts affect human health, the natural environment, and livelihoods. however, amidst these debates there remain unanswered questions about how demand for livestock-derived foods may evolve over the upcoming decades for a range of scenarios for key drivers of change including human population, income, and consumer preferences. future trends in human population and income in our scenarios were sourced from three of the shared socioeconomic pathways. we used scenario-based modeling to show that average protein demand for red meat (beef, sheep, goats, and pork), poultry, dairy milk, and eggs across the globe would increase by 14% per person and 38% in total between the year 2020 and the year 2050 if trends in income and population continue along a mid-range trajectory. the fastest per person rates of increase were 49% in south asia and 55% in sub-saharan africa. we show that per person demand for red meat in high-income countries would decline by 2.8% if income elasticities of demand (a partial proxy for consumer preferences, based on the responsiveness of demand to income changes) in high-income countries decline by 100% by 2050 under a mid-range trajectory for per person income growth, compared to their current trajectory. prices are an important driver of demand, and our results demonstrate that the result of a decline in red meat demand in high-income countries is strongly related to rising red meat prices, as projected by our scenario-based modeling. if the decline in the income elasticity of demand occurred in all countries rather than only in high-income countries, then per person red meat demand in high-income countries would actually increase in 2050 by 8.9% because the income elasticity-driven decline in global demand reduces prices, and the effect of lower prices outweighs the effect of a decline in the income elasticity of demand. our results demonstrate the importance of interactions between income, prices, and the income elasticity of demand in projecting future demand for livestock-derived foods. we complement the existing literature on food systems and global change by providing quantitative evidence about the possible space for the future demand of livestock-derived foods, which has important implications for human health and the natural environment. 13. title: conceptualizing and achieving industrial system transition for a dematerialized and decarbonized world authors: pramod k. singh, harpalsinh chudasama. abstract: the concept of industrial system transition introduced in the ipcc special report on global warming of 1.5 �c remains poorly conceptualized. in this paper, we deepen the conceptualization of the industrial system transition to decarbonization, dematerialization, and sustainable industrial production. aided by fuzzy cognitive maps that use perception-based data from stakeholders to model complex and difficult-to-model systems, we chart the pathways for industrial system transition. the industrial system transition entails interactions between dematerialization and decarbonization goals while enabling governance and systemic corporate strategies. the respondents of the fuzzy cognitive maps-based surveys comprised practitioners from companies, authors, and the policymaking community. fuzzy cognitive map-based simulations reveal that resorting to technical measures of dematerialization and decarbonization is insufficient to accomplish industrial system transition. the efficient industrial system transition to dematerialization and decarbonization requires the combined measures of (i) dematerialization and decarbonization, (ii) governance, policies, and regulations (effective governance including transnational governance, technology push, market-pull, technology transfer and financial flows, carbon price and carbon market; and (iii) enabling corporate strategies (regenerative and conscious capitalism, a new conception of transparency, and collaborative and constructive lobbying). large companies are mostly transnational entities, necessitating the adoption of effective transnational governance strategies for achieving the objectives of dematerialization and decarbonization. several transnational governance networks have partnered under the public�private co-governance mechanism in the decarbonization space dominated by mainly larger players. the advent of polycentric governance provides new opportunities for trans-local governance where large numbers of small and medium enterprises can participate in the advancement of at least decarbonization objectives; however, such networks require support from national governments. besides implications for governance, policy and regulations, the findings of this research could also have implications for corporate behavior in terms of promoting conscious and transparent organizational culture. 14. title: climate change in a changing world: socio-economic and technological transitions, regulatory frameworks and trends on global greenhouse gas emissions from edgar v.5.0 authors: gabriel david oreggioni, fabio monforti ferraio, monica crippa, marilena muntean, edwin schaaf, diego guizzardi, efisio solazzo, marlene duerr, miles perry, elisabetta vignati. abstract: over the last three decades, socio-economic, demographic and technological transitions have been witnessed throughout the world, modifying both sectorial and geographical distributions of greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. understanding these trends is central to the design of current and future climate change mitigation policies, requiring up-to-date methodologically robust emission inventories such as the emissions database for global atmospheric research (edgar), the european commission�s in-house, independent global emission inventory. edgar is a key tool to track the evolution of ghg emissions and contributes to quantifying the global carbon budget, providing independent and systematically calculated emissions for all countries. according to the results of the edgar v.5.0 release, total anthropogenic global greenhouse gas emissions (excluding land use, land use change and forestry) were estimated at 49.1 gt co2eq in 2015, 50 % higher than in 1990, despite a monotonic decrease in ghg emissions per unit of economic output. between 1990 and 2015, emissions from developed countries fell by 9%, while emissions from low to medium income countries increased by 130%, predominantly from 2000 onwards. the 27 member states of the european union and the united kingdom led the pathway for emission reductions in industrialised economies whilst, in developing countries, the rise in emissions was driven by higher emissions in china, india, brazil and nations in the south-east asian region. this diversity of patterns shows how different patterns for ghg emissions are and the need for identifying regionally tailored emission reduction measures. 15. title: framing the just transition: how international trade unions engage with un climate negotiations authors: adrien thomas. abstract: this article discusses international trade unions� engagement with climate change. using a qualitative methodology based on an analysis of interviews and archive documents, the article investigates the factors shaping the climate policies of the international union movement. it finds that these policies have been framed at the nexus of unions� internal politics, coalition strategies and the institutional environment of the unfccc process. as a result of contentious intra-organizational politics, contrasting alliances with external organizations and the institutional constraints of the unfccc process, international unions� climate policies have been torn between the competing priorities of ensuring workers� economic security and protecting the climate, leading to the inherently ambiguous just transition framework. the article speaks to the broader issues of the socio-political forces affecting global climate governance and, ultimately, to the preconditions for an inclusive transition to a low-carbon economy. 16. title: shared injustice, splintered solidarity: water governance across urban-rural divides authors: linda shi, sonia ahmad, prakriti shukla, sauvanithi yupho. abstract: in response to rapid urbanization and intensifying climatological instability, cities are implementing major water infrastructure projects to mitigate water supply and flood risks. drawing on four cases from south and southeast asia, we show how megacities� search for additional water supplies or sites to store floodwater repeatedly disadvantage the most vulnerable groups in rural and urban areas. rather than rehashing urban�rural conflicts, we argue these outcomes demonstrate the continuous reproduction of water insecurity for a class of society that is dispossessed of water and rural livelihoods, excluded from water and land access within the cities they migrate to, and evicted from flood-securitized cities back to the periphery. water-related injustices confronting the urban poor mirror injustices along the entire water governance spectrum that begins and ends in rural areas. these shared vulnerabilities suggest opportunities for solidarity across urban�rural divides and novel directions for research and coalition building. a fundamental challenge ahead will be whether and how urban and rural poor groups can build regional or national alliances across geographic and identity divides. 17. title: how do natural resource dependent firms gain and lose a social licence? authors: nikki p. dumbrell, david adamson, alec zuo, sarah ann wheeler. abstract: a project, firm or industry whose activities are accepted by communities and stakeholders is said to have a social licence to operate. the importance of a social licence is increasingly being realized in natural resource industries where a project or firm can impose more environmental and social costs, e.g. pollution, or strain on service delivery and housing, on communities than they are willing to accept. however, the conditions that are necessary and/or sufficient to obtain/maintain a social licence are unclear. to rectify this gap, a global literature review paired with a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of 47 natural resource case studies from 25 countries was used to identify the conditions necessary and/or sufficient to: (1) obtain or lose a social licence; (2) result in voluntary practice change by firms; and/or (3) create regulatory change. no single condition out of the ten conditions tested was found to be necessary to obtain or lose a social licence or to change firm behavior. however, a combination of five conditions created a robust pathway for maintaining a social licence, including: (1) delivery (or perception) of net economic benefits beyond the firm; (2) adequate stakeholder consultation; (3) minimal media coverage; (4) minimal public protests; and/or (5) absence of well-defined and enforced private property rights. these results contribute to an understanding of the somewhat limited effectiveness of social licence as a form of governance, and suggest that social licence outcomes are determined by the expectations of stakeholders, decisions and behaviors of firms, and broader institutional governance factors. 18. title: seeking a handle on climate change: examining the comparative effectiveness of energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy production in the united states authors: lazarus adua, karen xuan zhang, brett clark. abstract: this study examines the comparative effectiveness of two important proposed solutions to climate change�energy efficiency improvement and the development and use of renewable energy sources. we focus specifically on their impacts on carbon dioxide emissions by conducting fixed effects regression analysis of panel data pertaining to u.s. states. the analysis reveals a negative relationship between both remedies and carbon dioxide emissions. although the effects of these potential solutions are statistically equivalent, renewable energy production has a slight edge. reflecting upon these findings and the larger environmental problem, we caution against exclusive reliance on efficiency improvement and renewable energy to the neglect of other important actions, such as lifestyle modifications. a broad range of social changes, which incorporate the remedies investigated in this paper, are needed to limit long-term global temperature increases to the desired level. 19. title: a �precariously unprepared� pentagon? climate security beliefs and decision-making in the u.s. military authors: mackenzie burnett, katharine j. mach. abstract: increasing evidence suggests that climate change poses direct and indirect threats to national and human security. however, the degree to which such knowledge of the risks informs decision-making remains poorly understood for key security communities, including the u.s. department of defense. here, through document analysis and interviews with climate security researchers and practitioners from the u.s. military community, we evaluate perceptions about and the degree to which (i) these individuals believe climate change is a threat to u.s. national security interests, and (ii) the u.s. department of defense integrates climate security science into its decision-making. our research suggests a complex answer. public statements and reports indicate u.s. department of defense leadership considers climate change a security threat of strategic importance, and most researchers interviewed believe the u.s. department of defense prioritizes climate security as a near-term threat. however, evidence of climate security threats is only selectively integrated into planning and decision-making. interviews suggest several barriers and enablers to evidence-based decision-making within the u.s. department of defense. barriers include mixed beliefs in the near-term urgency of the threat, changing political environments, and insufficient co-production of actionable science across the levels of war, including issues of data collection, sharing, and analysis. enablers include increased awareness after climate-related impacts, strong leadership support, and knowledge transfer and convening forums. improved insight into the production and use of climate security knowledge is crucial for the task of safeguarding human and national security in a changing climate. 20. title: women participation in formal decision-making: empirical evidence from participatory forest management in ethiopia authors: goytom abraha kahsay, anna nord�n, erwin bulte. abstract: amid growing emphasis on community-based approaches to natural resource management, there are concerns about the lack of women participation in communal decision-making. we analyze the association between participation of women in decision-making of forest user groups in ethiopia and several forest management outcomes. we combine longitudinal survey, administrative and forest inventory data and find that participation of women in executive committees (i.e., formal decision-making) is associated with greater forest benefits, and an improved (perceived and actual) condition of the forest. alternatively, the association between women participation in group-level meetings and outcomes is not robust. this implies that women participation in formal decision-making is required to reach forest conservation and livelihood gains. 21. title: global-scale impact analysis of mine tailings dam failures: 1915�2020 authors: kamrul islam, shinsuke murakami. abstract: tailings are the waste materials generated from mining activities and are typically stored in large man-made earthen dams in the form of slurry. failures of such tailings dams can have deleterious effects on the environment and even impact areas that are miles away from the failed dam. in this study, we updated the existing tailings dam failure database developed by the international commission on large dams and world information service on energy and analyzed the impacts of dam failure over the past hundred years from a global perspective. in addition, we prepared a tailings dam spatial database. the impact of mine tailings dam failure on aquatic environments was also investigated using a proxy environmental indicator�the gray water footprint. the resulting information from the historical overview of dam failures, was used to map the risk associated with existing tailings dams as well as the magnitude of tailings dam failures. furthermore, we integrated mining commodity production data and the tailings dam failure data. this revealed that the number of failures is rising once again, and the trajectory of dam failures has shifted from developed to developing countries. only a few dam failure incidents have had significant impacts. although safer technologies are available to manage mine waste, most extractive industries are yet to adopt such technologies into their standard practices. moreover, the reluctance of mining companies for the public disclosure of information related to tailings dams and dam failures hinders efforts to establish a complete tailings dam database. we have provided up-to-date tailings dam information, which may be useful for extractive industries. 22. title: a green-gray path to global water security and sustainable infrastructure authors: charles j. v�r�smarty, ben stewart-koster, pamela a. green, edward l. boone, martina fl�rke, g�nther fischer, david a. wiberg, stuart e. bunn, anik bhaduri, peter b. mcintyre, claudia sadoff, hongxing liu, david stife. abstract: sustainable development demands reliable water resources, yet traditional water management has broadly failed to avoid environmental degradation and contain infrastructure costs. we explore the global-scale feasibility of combining natural capital with engineering-based (green-gray) approaches to meet water security threats over the 21st century. threats to water resource systems are projected to rise throughout this period, together with a significant expansion in engineering deployments and progressive loss of natural capital. in many parts of the world, strong path dependencies are projected to arise from the legacy of prior environmental degradation that constrains future water management to a heavy reliance on engineering-based approaches. elsewhere, retaining existing stocks of natural capital creates opportunities to employ blended green-gray water infrastructure. by 2050, annual engineering expenditures are projected to triple to $2.3 trillion, invested mainly in developing economies. in contrast, preserving natural capital for threat suppression represents a potential $3.0 trillion in avoided replacement costs by mid-century. society pays a premium whenever these nature-based assets are lost, as the engineering costs necessary to achieve an equivalent level of threat management are, on average, twice as expensive. countries projected to rapidly expand their engineering investments while losing natural capital will be most constrained in realizing green-gray water management. the situation is expected to be most restrictive across the developing world, where the economic, technical, and governance capacities to overcome such challenges remain limited. our results demonstrate that policies that support blended green-gray approaches offer a pathway to future global water security but will require a strategic commitment to preserving natural capital. absent such stewardship, the costs of water resource infrastructure and services will likely rise substantially and frustrate efforts to attain universal and sustainable water security. 23. title: climate change in news media across the globe: an automated analysis of issue attention and themes in climate change coverage in 10 countries (2006�2018) authors: valerie hase, daniela mahl, mike s. sch�fer, tobias r. keller. abstract: climate change poses a challenge to countries across the world, with news media being an important source of information on the issue. to understand how and how much news media cover climate change, this study compares coverage in ten countries from the global north and the global south between 2006 and 2018 (n = 71,674). based on a panel analysis, we illustrate that news media attention varies across countries and is often associated with political, scientific, and (partly) societal focusing events. based on an automated content analysis, we also find that news media do not only cover ecological changes or climate science, but that they focus predominantly on the societal dimension of climate change: they emphasize how humans are aware of, affected by, battle, or cause climate change. overall, the study illustrates important differences between the global north and the global south. while countries from the global north cover climate change more frequently, countries from the global south focus more on its challenges and implications for society at large, i.e., the societal dimension of climate change. 24. title: why are carbon taxes unfair? disentangling public perceptions of fairness authors: marina povitkina, sverker carlsson jagers, simon matti, johan martinsson. abstract: in order to reach climate goals, governments need to gain support from their voters for the necessary policy interventions, such as carbon dioxide taxes. previous research concludes that people often do not support and legitimize such taxes because they perceive them as unfair. however, the notion of fairness implies a multitude of factors and despite attempts of the previous research to further nuance people�s fairness perceptions, we currently lack a more precise understanding of what people mean when they regard carbon taxes as unfair. in this article, we thoroughly investigate this problem by using original survey data from yougov collected in the united states in 2018 and analyzing open-ended survey responses on why people think carbon taxes are unfair. applying structural topic modeling, we unpack the multi-dimensional meaning of unfairness, as perceived by the us population. the results from our analysis show that people regard carbon taxes based on gas pricing as unfair because they perceive gas prices already being high, because of the need to drive, unfairness for the poor or rural population, lack of trust in government, or considerations that the purpose of the tax is unjustified. these findings help provide a more nuanced policy design to address fairness concerns related to carbon taxes. 25. title: designing effective and equitable zero-deforestation supply chain policies authors: janina grabs, federico cammelli, samuel a. levy, rachael d. garrett. abstract: in response to the clearing of tropical forests for agricultural expansion, agri-food companies have adopted promises to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains in the form of �zero-deforestation commitments� (zdcs). while there is growing evidence about the environmental effectiveness of these commitments (i.e., whether they meet their conservation goals), there is little information on how they influence producers� opportunity to access sustainable markets and related livelihood outcomes, or how design and implementation choices influence tradeoffs or potential synergies between effectiveness and equity in access. this paper explores these research gaps and makes three main contributions by: i) defining and justifying the importance of analyzing access equity and its relation to effectiveness when implementing forest-focused supply chain policies such as zdcs, ii) identifying seven policy design principles that are likely to maximize synergies between effectiveness and access equity, and iii) assessing effectiveness-access equity tensions and synergies across common zdc implementation mechanisms amongst the five largest firms in each of the leading agricultural forest-risk commodity sectors: palm oil, soybeans, beef cattle, and cocoa. to enhance forest conservation while avoiding harm to the most vulnerable farmers in the tropics, it is necessary to combine stringent rules with widespread capacity building, greater involvement of affected actors in the co-production of implementation mechanisms, and support for alternative rural development paths. 26. title: experience is not enough: a dynamic explanation of the limited adaptation to extreme weather events in public organizations authors: fengxiu zhang, spiro maroulis. abstract: this study advances theory articulating the micro-level processes behind public organization adaptation to extreme weather. it tackles a persistent puzzle about the limited adaptation to extreme weather among public organizations: why does adaptation remain deficit after public organizations have experienced repeated extreme weather and some catastrophic consequences? we develop a computational agent-based model that integrates extant theory and data from semi-structured interviews of u.s. public transit agency managers, and use the model to investigate how micro-level cognition and behavior interact with environmental constraints to facilitate or impede the diffusion of adaptation. we articulate in greater detail how experience with influential extreme weather events matters to adaptation, highlighting that such experience is insufficient for adaptation to occur. a key insight is that the potential benefits from both increased risk perception and additional financial resources stemming from disaster- or non-disaster-induced opportunities can be underutilized, absent effective coupling between heightened risk perception and availability of resources that creates windows for adaptation. using this insight, we further identify managerial and policy interventions with maximum leverage to promote adaptation to extreme weather in public organizations. the experiments show that slowing risk perception decay and synchronizing opportunities with extreme weather occurrences can stimulate adaptation. 27. title: climate change and the demand for recreational ecosystem services on public lands in the continental united states authors: emily j. wilkins, yoshimitsu chikamoto, anna b. miller, jordan w. smith. abstract: cultural ecosystem services represent nonmaterial benefits people derive from the environment; these benefits include outdoor recreation opportunities. changes in climatic conditions are likely to shift the spatial and temporal demand for recreational ecosystem services. to date, little is known about the magnitude and spatial variability in these shifts across large geographic extents. we use 14 years of geotagged social media data to explore how the climatological mean of maximum temperature affects the demand for recreational ecosystem services by season across public lands in the continental united states. we also investigate how the demand for recreational ecosystem services on public lands may change by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, rcp 4.5 and rcp 8.5. across all public lands in the continental u.s., demand for recreational ecosystem services is expected to decrease 18% by 2050 under rcp 4.5 in the summer, but increase 12% in the winter and 5% in the spring, with no significant changes in the fall. there is substantial variation in the magnitude of projected changes by region. in the spring and fall, some regions are likely to see an increase in the demand for recreational ecosystem services (e.g., arkansas-rio grande-texas-gulf), while others will see declines (e.g., south atlantic gulf, california great basin). our findings suggest the total demand for recreational ecosystem services across the continental u.s. is expected to decline under warming temperatures. however, there is a large amount of variation in where, when, and by how much, demand will change. the peak season for visiting public lands is likely to lengthen in the continental u.s. as the climate continues to warm, with demand declining in the summer and growing in the off-season. 28. title: embodied carbon dioxide emissions to provide high access levels to basic infrastructure around the world authors: vivien fisch-romito. abstract: access to infrastructure services is essential to meet human basic needs. however, infrastructure construction requires carbon-intensive materials, first and foremost cement and steel. in this paper, i assess if high level of access to 5 basic infrastructure services � electricity, water, shelter, sanitation and transportation � can be provided at the global scale in 2030 and until 2050 without compromising climate mitigation targets. following historical patterns, i first quantify the cement and steel requirements in each country associated with providing high access levels. i then estimate the production-based carbon dioxide emissions related to manufacturing the cement and steel needs. to do so, i model influencing factors such as national production technologies mix, trade structure and mitigation actions in the cement and steel industries. global cumulative material demand (central values) to reach high access level in 2030 is the lowest for water with 8 gt of cement and 1 gt of steel and the highest for transportation with 50 gt of cement and 6 gt of steel. most of the cement and steel demand is concentrated in asia, middle-east and africa. i show for all infrastructure services that achieving high access level in 2030 and until 2050 induces cumulative carbon dioxide emissions well below the carbon budgets related to paris agreement targets, with central values under baseline scenario from 10 to 53 gt depending on the infrastructure service. however, i find providing high sanitation and transportation access in middle-east and africa conflicts with existing low-carbon pathways. this calls for on one side implementing material efficiency and substitution towards less carbon-intensive construction materials, and on the other side strengthening mitigation efforts in wealthiest countries to leave enough �carbon space� for basic infrastructure development in emerging countries. 29. title: potentially harmful world bank projects are proximate to areas of biodiversity conservation importance authors: jonathan morley, graeme buchanan, edward t.a. mitchard, aidan keane. abstract: for many countries in the global south the world bank is a key funder of development. a subset of the activities it funds have the potential to cause harm to biodiversity. currently, however, little is known about the spatial coincidence of bank-funded projects and important areas for biodiversity. using a dataset of world bank projects funded between 1995 and 2014, we examine the relationship between potentially harmful project activities and the ranges of globally threatened birds, mammals, and amphibians, key biodiversity areas, protected areas, and biodiversity hotspots. we find that 5 by 5 km cells containing a project activity are more likely to contain a key biodiversity area, or a biodiversity hotspot, and have on average greater richness of globally threatened species, than those without. this relationship was statistically significant even after considering human population and country-level socio-economic effects except in the case of key biodiversity areas. we also found limited evidence that activities are systematically placed within countries to avoid the ranges of threatened species or key biodiversity areas. by contrast, we found a negative relationship between project activities and protected areas globally and within most countries, which may be evidence that potentially harmful activities are placed to avoid protected areas. our findings raise questions about whether the banks environmental safeguards have adequately translated into avoidance of highly diverse areas. given the size of the world bank�s lending portfolio and its role in setting industry best practice our results are concerning for conservation efforts. 30. title: risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal authors: jean-francois mercure, simon sharpe, jorge e. vinuales, matthewives, michael grubb, aileen lam, paul drummond, hector pollitt, florian knobloch, femke j.m.m. nijsse. abstract: the climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. the current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. yet progress has been slow and incremental. inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. we use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. we use the term �risk-opportunity analysis� to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. new guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered. 31. title: how is organic farming performing agronomically and economically in sub-saharan africa? authors: christian schader, anja heidenreich, irene kadzere, irene egyir, anne muriuki, joseph bandanaa, joseph clottey, john ndungu, christian grovermann, gianna lazzarini, johan blockeel, christian borgemeister, adrian muller, fred kabi, komi fiaboe, noah adamtey, beate huber, urs niggli, matthias stolzea. abstract: the potential of organic agriculture and agroecological approaches for improving food security in africa is a controversial topic in global discussions. while there is a number of meta-analyses on the environmental, agronomic and financial performance of organic farming, most of the underlying data stems from on-station field trials from temperate regions. data from sub-sahara africa in particular, as well as detailed real-farm data is scarce. how organic farming is implemented in sub-saharan africa and how it performs in a smallholder context remains poorly understood. we applied a novel observational two-factorial research design, which allowed to evaluate the impacts of i) interventions for introducing organic agriculture and ii) specific organic management practices on 1,645 farms from five case studies in ghana and kenya, which we closely monitored for 24 months. among the farmers who have been exposed to the interventions, we found heterogeneous adoption of organic agriculture principles, depending on the intervention. furthermore, we found rather passive than active organic management among farmers. most yields and gross margins under organic management remained at similar levels as the conventional values in four of the case studies. in one case study, however, coffee, maize and macadamia nut yields increased by 127�308% and farm-level gross margins over all analysed crops by 292%. pooling our data across all case studies, we found significantly higher ( 144%) farm-level gross margins on organically managed farms than on conventional farms. this indicates the potential of organic and agroecological approaches if implemented well. based on our observations, we argue for improving the implementation of organic agriculture projects in settings with smallholder farmers. limited capacities, lack of appropriate inputs and market access are major agronomic and institutional challenges to be addressed. furthermore, we argue for supporting a differentiated debate about which types of organic farming are really desirable by 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