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volume 113, issue 2, february 2023
1. title: technological change and the consequences of job loss.
authors: braxton, j. carter; taska, bledi.
abstract: we examine the role of technological change in explaining the large and persistent decline in earnings following job loss. using detailed skill requirements from the near universe of online vacancies, we estimate technological change by occupation and find that technological change accounts for 45 percent of the decline in earnings after job loss. technological change lowers earnings after job loss by requiring workers to have new skills to perform newly created jobs in their prior occupation. when workers lack the required skills, they move to occupations where their skills are still employable but are paid a lower wage.
2. title: trade with correlation.
authors: lind, nelson; ramondo, natalia.
abstract: we develop a trade model with correlation in productivity across countries. the model spans the full class of generalized extreme value import demand systems and implies that countries with relatively dissimilar technology gain more from trade. in the context of a multisector trade model, we provide a tractable and flexible estimation procedure for correlation based on compressing highly disaggregate sectoral data into a few latent factors related to technology classes. we estimate significant heterogeneity in correlation across sectors and countries, which leads to quantitative predictions that are significantly different from estimates of models assuming independent productivity across sectors or countries.
3. title: constrained-efficient capital reallocation.
authors: lanteri, andrea; rampini, adriano a.
abstract: we characterize efficiency in an equilibrium model of investment and capital reallocation with heterogeneous firms facing collateral constraints. the model features two types of pecuniary externalities: collateral externalities, because the resale price of capital affects collateral constraints, and distributive externalities, because buyers of old capital are more financially constrained than sellers, consistent with empirical evidence. we prove that the stationary equilibrium price of old capital is inefficiently high because the distributive externality exceeds the collateral externality, by a factor of two when we calibrate the model. new investment reduces the future price of old capital, providing a rationale for new-investment subsidies.
4. title: enabling or limiting cognitive flexibility? evidence of demand for moral commitment.
authors: saccardo, silvia; serra-garcia, marta.
abstract: moral behavior is more prevalent when individuals cannot easily distort their beliefs self-servingly. do individuals seek to limit or enable their ability to distort beliefs? how do these choices affect behavior? experiments with over 9,000 participants show preferences are heterogeneous--30 percent of participants prefer to limit belief distortion, while over 40 percent prefer to enable it, even if costly. a random assignment mechanism reveals that being assigned to the preferred environment is necessary for curbing or enabling self-serving behavior. third parties can anticipate these effects, suggesting some sophistication about the cognitive constraints to belief distortion.
5. title: droughts, deluges, and (river) diversions: valuing market-based water reallocation.
authors: rafey, will.
abstract: this paper develops and applies a method to value water trading on a river network. the framework relies on regulatory variation in diversion caps to identify production functions for irrigated farms, then uses the estimated shadow values to assess the market's reallocation. i apply this framework to the largest water market in human history, located in southeastern australia. observed water trading increased output by 4-6 percent from 2007 to 2015, equivalent to avoiding an 8-12 percent uniform decline in water resources. reallocation and average surplus both increase substantially during drought, implying that water markets can be most valuable when climatic variability is most severe.
6. title: technology gaps, trade, and income.
authors: sampson, thomas.
abstract: this paper quantifies the contribution of technology gaps to international income inequality. i develop an endogenous growth model where cross-country differences in r&d efficiency and cross-industry differences in innovation and adoption opportunities together determine equilibrium technology gaps, trade patterns, and income inequality. countries with higher r&d efficiency are richer and have comparative advantage in more innovation-dependent industries. i calibrate r&d efficiency by country and innovation dependence by industry using r&d, patent, and bilateral trade data. counterfactual analysis implies technology gaps account for one-quarter to one-third of nominal wage variation within the oecd.
7. title: electronic food vouchers: evidence from an at-scale experiment in indonesia.
authors: banerjee, abhijit; hanna, rema; olken, benjamin a.; satriawan, elan; sumarto, sudarno.
abstract: we compare how in-kind food assistance and an electronic voucherbased program affect the delivery of aid in practice. the government of indonesia randomized across 105 districts the transition from in-kind rice to approximately equivalent electronic vouchers redeemable for rice and eggs at a network of private agents. targeted households received 46 percent more assistance in voucher areas. for the bottom 15 percent of households at baseline, poverty fell 20 percent. voucher recipients received higher-quality rice, and increased consumption of eggs. the results suggest moving from a manual in-kind to electronic voucher-based program reduced poverty through increased adherence to program design.
8. title: the voice of monetary policy.
authors: gorodnichenko, yuriy; tho pham; talavera, oleksandr.
abstract: we develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the federal open market committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. we find that, after controlling for the federal reserve's actions and the sentiment in policy texts, a positive tone in the voices of federal reserve chairs leads to significant increases in share prices. other financial variables also respond to vocal cues from the chairs. hence, how policy messages are communicated can move the financial market. our results provide implications for improving the effectiveness of central bank communications.
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