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volume 138, issue 4, november 2023
1. title: cognitive uncertainty
authors: benjamin enke and thomas graeber
abstract: this article documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people�s subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. in a series of experiments on choice under risk, the formation of beliefs, and forecasts of economic variables, we show that cognitive uncertainty predicts various systematic biases in economic decisions. when people are cognitively uncertain�either endogenously or because the problem is designed to be complex�their decisions are heavily attenuated functions of objective probabilities, which gives rise to average behavior that is regressive to an intermediate option. this insight ties together a wide range of empirical regularities in behavioral economics that are typically viewed as distinct phenomena or even as reflecting preferences, including the probability weighting function in choice under risk; base rate insensitivity, conservatism, and sample size effects in belief updating; and predictable overoptimism and -pessimism in forecasts of economic variables. our results offer a blueprint for how a simple measurement of cognitive uncertainty generates novel insights about what people find complex and how they respond to it.
2. title: gender differences in job search and the earnings gap: evidence from the field and lab
authors: patricia cort�s and others
abstract: this article investigates gender differences in the job search process in the field and lab. our analysis is based on rich information on initial job offers and acceptances from undergraduates of boston university�s questrom school of business. we find (i) a clear gender difference in the timing of job offer acceptance, with women accepting jobs substantially earlier than men, and (ii) a sizable gender earnings gap in accepted offers, which narrows in favor of women over the course of the job search period. to understand these patterns, we develop a job search model that incorporates gender differences in risk aversion and overoptimism about prospective offers. we validate the model�s assumptions and predictions using the survey data and present empirical evidence that the job search patterns in the field can be partly explained by the greater risk aversion displayed by women and the higher levels of overoptimism displayed by men. we replicate these findings in a laboratory experiment that features sequential job search and provide direct evidence on the purported mechanisms. our findings highlight the importance of risk preferences and beliefs for gender differences in job-finding behavior and, consequently, early-career wage gaps among the highly educated.
3. title: a fiscal theory of persistent inflation
authors: francesco bianchi and others
abstract: we develop a new class of general-equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt to propose a fiscal theory of persistent inflation. in response to business cycle shocks, the monetary authority controls inflation and the fiscal authority stabilizes debt. however, the central bank accommodates unfunded fiscal shocks, causing persistent movements in inflation, output, and real interest rates. in an estimated quantitative model, fiscal inflation accounts for the bulk of inflation dynamics. in the aftermath of the pandemic, unfunded fiscal shocks sustain the recovery but also cause a persistent increase in inflation. the model is able to predict the inflationary effects of the american rescue plan act fiscal stimulus out of sample and with real-time data.
4. title: children�s indirect exposure to the u.s. justice system: evidence from longitudinal links between survey and administrative data
authors: keith finlay and others
abstract: children�s indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or coresident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system�s expansive reach in society. estimating the size of this population for the united states has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to observe nonincarceration events, follow children throughout their childhood, and measure adult nonbiological parent cohabitants. to overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with criminal justice administrative records system data and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison, 9% of children born between 1999�2005; felony conviction, 18%; and any criminal charge, 39%. charge exposure rates exceed 60% for black, american indian, and low-income children. while broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest that these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high-exposure county during childhood. we find that children moving into high-exposure counties are more likely to experience postmove exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); effects are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages.
5. title: what we teach about race and gender: representation in images and text of children�s books
authors: anjali adukia and others
abstract: books shape how children learn about society and norms, in part through representation of different characters. we use computational tools to characterize representation in children�s books widely read in homes, classrooms, and libraries over the past century and describe economic forces that may contribute to these patterns. we introduce new artificial intelligence methods for systematically converting images into data. we apply these tools, alongside text analysis methods, to measure skin color, race, gender, and age in the content of these books, documenting what has changed and what has endured over time. we find underrepresentation of black and latinx people in the most influential books, relative to their population shares, though representation of black individuals increases over time. females are also increasingly present but appear less often in text than in images, suggesting greater symbolic inclusion in pictures than substantive inclusion in stories. characters in these influential books have lighter average skin color than in other books, even after conditioning on race, and children are depicted with lighter skin color than adults on average. we present empirical analysis of related economic behavior to better understand the representation we find in these books. on the demand side, we show that people consume books that center their own identities and that the types of children�s books purchased correlate with local political beliefs. on the supply side, we document higher prices for books that center nondominant social identities and fewer copies of these books in libraries that serve predominantly white communities.
6. title: labor market dynamics and development
authors: kevin donovan and others
abstract: we provide new evidence on how labor market dynamics vary with development. we build a new data set consisting of harmonized microdata from rotating panel labor force surveys covering 80 million people from 49 countries. labor market flows, such as the job-finding or employment exit rate, are higher in developing economies. these higher flows largely reflect a slippery job ladder: workers transition frequently to and from marginal employment without climbing to or persisting in better-paying jobs. subsistence self-employment and different patterns of selection for wage workers each play a role in our findings and are useful avenues for future theories of labor market frictions.
7. title: a quantity-driven theory of term premia and exchange rates
authors: robin greenwood and others
abstract: we develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies, as well as bond term premia in both currencies. our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the comovement between exchange rates and term premia, and the finding that central banks� quantitative easing policies affect exchange rates. an extension of our model links spot exchange rates to the persistent deviations from covered interest rate parity that have emerged since 2008.
8. title: buyers� sourcing strategies and suppliers� markups in bangladeshi garments
authors: julia cajal-grossi and others
abstract: we study differences in markups earned by bangladeshi garment exporters across buyers with different sourcing strategies and make three contributions. first, we distinguish buyers with a relational versus a spot sourcing strategy and show that a buyer�s sourcing strategy is correlated across products and origins. buyer fixed effects explain most of the variation in sourcing strategies, suggesting that these depend on organizational capabilities. second, we use novel data that match quantities and prices of the two main variable inputs in the production of garments (fabric and labor on sewing lines) to specific export orders. we derive conditions under which these data allow measurement of within exporter-product-time differences in markups across orders produced for different buyers. third, we show that exporters earn higher markups on otherwise identical orders produced for relational, as opposed to spot, buyers. a sourcing model with imperfect contract enforcement, idiosyncratic shocks to exporters, and buyers that adopt different sourcing strategies trading off higher prices and reliable supply rationalizes this and other observed facts in the industry. we discuss alternative explanations and policy implications.
9. title: search frictions and efficiency in decentralized transport markets
authors: giulia brancaccio and others
abstract: we explore efficiency and optimal policy in decentralized transport markets, such as taxis, trucks, and bulk shipping. we show that in these markets, search frictions distort the transportation network and the dynamic allocation of carriers over space. we derive explicit and intuitive conditions for efficiency and show how they translate into efficient pricing rules, or optimal taxes and subsidies for the planner who cannot set prices directly. the results imply that destination-based pricing is essential to attain efficiency. then, using data from dry bulk shipping, we demonstrate that search frictions lead to a sizable social loss and substantial misallocation of ships over space. optimal policy can eliminate about half of the welfare loss. can a centralizing platform, often arising as a market-based solution to search frictions, do better? interestingly, the answer is no; although the platform eradicates frictions, it exerts market power, thus eroding the welfare gains. finally, we use two recent interventions in the industry (china�s belt and road initiative and the environmental initiative imo 2020) to demonstrate that taking into account the efficiency properties of transport markets is germane to any proposed policy.
10. title: the damages and distortions from discrimination in the rental housing market
authors: peter christensen and christopher timmins
abstract: by constraining an individual�s choice during a search, housing discrimination distorts sorting decisions away from true preferences and results in a ceteris paribus reduction in welfare. this study combines a large-scale field experiment with a residential sorting model to derive utility-theoretic measures of renter welfare loss associated with the constraints imposed by discrimination in the rental housing market. results from experiments conducted in five cities show that key neighborhood amenities are associated with higher levels of discrimination. counterfactual simulations based on the sorting model suggest that discrimination imposes damages equivalent to 4.4% and 3.5% of the annual incomes for african american and hispanic/latinx renters, respectively. damages are increasing in income for african american renters, such that effects become stronger for economically mobile households. renters of color must make substantial investments in additional search to mitigate the costs of these constraints. we find that a naive model ignoring discrimination constraints yields biased estimates of willingness to pay for key neighborhood amenities.
11. title: economic consequences of kinship: evidence from u.s. bans on cousin marriage
authors: arkadev ghosh and others
abstract: close-kin marriage, by sustaining tightly knit family structures, may impede development. we find support for this hypothesis using u.s. state bans on cousin marriage. our measure of cousin marriage comes from the excess frequency of same-surname marriages, a method borrowed from population genetics that we apply to millions of marriage records from the eighteenth to the twentieth century. using census data, we first show that married cousins are more rural and have lower-paying occupations. we then turn to an event study analysis to understand how cousin marriage bans affected outcomes for treated birth cohorts. we find that these bans led individuals from families with high rates of cousin marriage to migrate off farms and into urban areas. they also gradually shift to higher-paying occupations. we observe increased dispersion, with individuals from these families living in a wider range of locations and adopting more diverse occupations. our findings suggest that these changes were driven by the social and cultural effects of dispersed family ties rather than genetics. notably, the bans also caused more people to live in institutional settings for the elderly, infirm, or destitute, suggesting weaker support from kin.
12. title: seeing what is representative
authors: ignacio esponda and others
abstract: we provide evidence for a bias that we call �representative signal distortion� (rsd), which is particularly relevant to settings of statistical discrimination. experimental subjects distort their evaluation of new evidence on individual group members and interpret such information to be more representative of the group to which the individual belongs (relative to a reference group) than it really is. this produces a discriminatory gap in the evaluation of members of the two groups. because it is driven by representativeness, the bias (and the discriminatory gap) disappears when subjects are prevented from contrasting different groups; because it is a bias in the interpretation of information, it disappears when subjects receive information before learning of the individual�s group. we show that this bias can be easily estimated from appropriately constructed data sets and can be distinguished from previously documented inferential biases in the literature. importantly, we document how removing the bias produces a kind of free lunch in reducing discrimination, making it possible to significantly reduce discrimination without lowering accuracy of inferences.
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