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volume 137, issue 1, february 2022
1. title: brahmin left versus merchant right: changing political cleavages in 21 western democracies, 1948�2020
authors: amory gethin, clara mart�nez-toledano, thomas piketty
abstract: this article sheds new light on the long-run evolution of political cleavages in 21 western democracies. we exploit a new database on the socioeconomic determinants of the vote, covering more than 300 elections held between 1948 and 2020. in the 1950s and 1960s, the vote for social democratic, socialist, and affiliated parties was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. it has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, giving rise in the 2010s to a disconnection between the effects of income and education on the vote: higher-educated voters now vote for the �left,� while high-income voters continue to vote for the �right.� this transition has been accelerated by the rise of green and anti-immigration movements, whose distinctive feature is to concentrate the votes of the higher-educated and lower-educated electorates. combining our database with historical data on political parties� programs, we provide evidence that the reversal of the education cleavage is strongly linked to the emergence of a new �sociocultural� axis of political conflict.
2. title: would eliminating racial disparities in motor vehicle searches have efficiency costs?
authors: benjamin feigenberg, conrad miller
abstract: during traffic stops, police search black and hispanic motorists more than twice as often as white motorists, yet those searches are no more likely to yield contraband. we ask whether equalizing search rates by motorist race would reduce contraband yield. we use unique administrative data from texas to isolate variation in search behavior across and within highway patrol troopers and find that search rates are unrelated to the proportion of searches that yield contraband. we find that troopers can equalize search rates across racial groups, maintain the status quo search rate, and increase contraband yield. troopers appear to be limited in their ability to discern between motorists who are more or less likely to carry contraband.
3. title: affirmative action, mismatch, and economic mobility after california�s proposition 209
authors: zachary bleemer
abstract: proposition 209 banned race-based affirmative action at california public universities in 1998. using a difference-in-differences research design and a newly constructed longitudinal database linking all 1994�2002 university of california applicants to their educational experiences and wages, i show that ending affirmative action caused underrepresented minority (urm) freshman applicants to cascade into lower-quality colleges. the �mismatch hypothesis� implies that this cascade would provide net educational benefits to urm applicants, but their degree attainment declined overall and in stem fields, especially among less academically qualified applicants. urm applicants� average wages in their twenties and thirties subsequently declined, driven by declines among hispanic applicants. these declines are not explained by urm students' performance or persistence in stem course sequences, which were unchanged after prop 209. ending affirmative action also deterred thousands of qualified urm students from applying to any uc campus. complementary regression discontinuity and institutional value-added analyses suggest that affirmative action�s net educational and wage benefits for urm applicants exceed its net costs for on-the-margin white and asian applicants.
4. title: efficient coding and risky choice
authors: cary frydman, lawrence j jin
abstract: we experimentally test a theory of risky choice in which the perception of a lottery payoff is noisy due to information processing constraints in the brain. we model perception using the principle of efficient coding, which implies that perception is most accurate for those payoffs that occur most frequently. across two preregistered laboratory experiments, we manipulate the distribution from which payoffs in the choice set are drawn. in our first experiment, we find that risk taking is more sensitive to payoffs that are presented more frequently. in a follow-up task, we incentivize subjects to classify which of two symbolic numbers is larger. subjects exhibit higher accuracy and faster response times for numbers they have observed more frequently. in our second experiment, we manipulate the payoff distribution so that efficient coding modulates the strength of valuation biases. as we experimentally increase the frequency of large payoffs, we find that subjects perceive the upside of a risky lottery more accurately and take greater risk. together, our experimental results suggest that risk taking depends systematically on the payoff distribution to which the decision maker�s perceptual system has recently adapted. more broadly, our findings highlight the importance of imprecise and efficient coding in economic decision making.
5. title: flexible wages, bargaining, and the gender gap
authors: barbara biasi, heather sarsons
abstract: does flexible pay increase the gender wage gap? to answer this question, we analyze the wages of public school teachers in wisconsin, where a 2011 reform allowed school districts to set teachers� pay more flexibly and engage in individual negotiations. using quasi-exogenous variation in the timing of the introduction of flexible pay, driven by the expiration of preexisting collective-bargaining agreements, we show that flexible pay lowered the salaries of women compared with men with the same credentials. this gap is larger for younger teachers and smaller for teachers working under a female principal or superintendent. survey evidence suggests that the gap is partly driven by women engaging less frequently in negotiations over pay, especially when the counterpart is a man. the gap is unlikely to be driven by observable gender differences in job mobility or teacher ability, although the threat of moving and a high demand for male teachers could exacerbate it. our results suggest that pay discretion and wage bargaining are important determinants of the gender wage gap and that institutions, such as unions, might help narrow this gap.
6. title: reallocation effects of the minimum wage
authors: christian dustmann, attila lindner, uta sch�nberg, matthias umkehrer, philipp vom berge
abstract: we investigate the wage, employment, and reallocation effects of the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in germany that affected 15% of all employees. based on identification designs that exploit variation in exposure across individuals and local areas, we find that the minimum wage raised wages but did not lower employment. it also led to the reallocation of low-wage workers from smaller to larger, from lower- to higher-paying, and from less to more productive establishments. this worker upgrading accounts for up to 17% of the wage increase induced by the minimum wage. moreover, at the regional level, average establishment quality increased in more affected areas in the years following the introduction of the minimum wage.
7. title: taxation and innovation in the twentieth century
authors: ufuk akcigit, john grigsby, tom nicholas, stefanie stantcheva
abstract: this article studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the united states over the twentieth century. we build a panel of the universe of inventors who patented since 1920, and a historical state-level corporate tax database with corporate tax rates and tax base information, which we link to existing data on state-level personal income taxes and other economic outcomes. our analysis focuses on the effect of personal and corporate income taxes on individual inventors (the micro level) and on states (the macro level), considering the quantity and quality of innovation, its location, and the share produced by the corporate rather than the noncorporate sector. we propose several identification strategies, all of which yield consistent results. we find that higher taxes negatively affect the quantity and the location of innovation, but not average innovation quality. the state-level elasticities to taxes are large and consistent with the aggregation of the individual-level responses of innovation produced and cross-state mobility. corporate taxes tend to especially affect corporate inventors� innovation production and cross-state mobility. personal income taxes significantly affect the quantity of innovation overall and the mobility of inventors.
8. title: the investment network, sectoral comovement, and the changing u.s. business cycle
authors: christian vom lehn, thomas winberry
abstract: we argue that the network of investment production and purchases across sectors is an important propagation mechanism for understanding business cycles. empirically, we show that the majority of investment goods are produced by a few �investment hubs,� which are more cyclical than other sectors. we embed this investment network into a multisector business cycle model and show that sector-specific shocks to the investment hubs and their key suppliers have large effects on aggregate employment and drive down labor productivity. quantitatively, we find that sector-specific shocks to hubs and their suppliers account for an increasing share of aggregate fluctuations over time, generating the declining cyclicality of labor productivity and other changes in business cycle patterns since the 1980s.
9. title: monetary independence and rollover crises
authors: javier bianchi, jorge mondragon
abstract: this article shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. we study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. when the government lacks monetary independence, lenders anticipate that the government would face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. in a quantitative application to the eurozone debt crisis, we find that the lack of monetary autonomy played a central role in making spain vulnerable to a rollover crisis. finally, we argue that a lender of last resort can go a long way toward reducing the costs of giving up monetary independence.
10. title: quantifying the high-frequency trading �arms race�
authors: matteo aquilina, eric budish, peter o�neill
abstract: we use stock exchange message data to quantify the negative aspect of high-frequency trading, known as �latency arbitrage.� the key difference between message data and widely familiar limit order book data is that message data contain attempts to trade or cancel that fail. this allows the researcher to observe both winners and losers in a race, whereas in limit order book data you cannot see the losers, so you cannot directly see the races. we find that latency arbitrage races are very frequent (about one per minute per symbol for ftse 100 stocks), extremely fast (the modal race lasts 5 10 millionths of a second), and account for a remarkably large portion of overall trading volume (about 20%). race participation is concentrated, with the top six firms accounting for over 80% of all race wins and losses. the average race is worth just a small amount (about half a price tick), but because of the large volumes the stakes add up. our main estimates suggest that races constitute roughly one-third of price impact and the effective spread (key microstructure measures of the cost of liquidity), that latency arbitrage imposes a roughly 0.5 basis point tax on trading, that market designs that eliminate latency arbitrage would reduce the market�s cost of liquidity by 17%, and that the total sums at stake are on the order of $5 billion per year in global equity markets alone.
11. title: voluntary regulation: evidence from medicare payment reform
authors: liran einav, amy finkelstein, yunan ji, neale mahoney
abstract: government programs are often offered on an optional basis to market participants. we explore the economics of such voluntary regulation in the context of a medicare payment reform, in which one medical provider receives a single, predetermined payment for a sequence of related healthcare services, instead of separate service-specific payments. this �bundled payment� program was originally implemented as a five-year randomized trial, with mandatory participation by hospitals assigned to the new payment model; however, after two years, participation was made voluntary for half of these hospitals. using detailed claim-level data, we document that voluntary participation is more likely for hospitals that can increase revenue without changing behavior (�selection on levels�) and for hospitals that had large changes in behavior when participation was mandatory (�selection on slopes�). to assess outcomes under counterfactual regimes, we estimate a stylized model of responsiveness to and selection into the program. we find that the current voluntary regime generates inefficient transfers to hospitals, and that alternative (feasible) designs could reduce these inefficient transfers and raise welfare. our analysis highlights key design elements to consider under voluntary regulation.
12. title: how to sell hard information
authors: s nageeb ali, nima haghpanah, xiao lin, ron siegel
abstract: the seller of an asset has the option to buy hard information about the value of the asset from an intermediary. the seller can then disclose this information before selling the asset in a competitive market. we study how the intermediary designs and sells hard information to robustly maximize the intermediary's revenue across all equilibria. even though the intermediary could use an accurate test that reveals the asset�s value, we show that robust revenue maximization leads to a noisy test with a continuum of possible scores. in addition, the intermediary always charges the seller for disclosing the test score to the market, but not necessarily for running the test. this enables the intermediary to robustly appropriate a significant share of the surplus resulting from the asset sale.
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