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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��ab ��""��8�|u$��rl��q�q�q�q�q�q�q$�s��v<�q��q��4>r��q��q��ܕ͉��s�kqtr0�r��v�:�v��/�v�;n0��q�q��r��v��"qs: risk analysis volume 41, issue 8, august 2021 1. title: development of a potential facility risk index for radiological security authors: shraddha rane, jason harris abstract: given the threat of radiological and nuclear terrorism, it is imperative to understand and evaluate the security risk of radioactive sources. in this context, risk assessment is a function of threat, vulnerability, and consequences. currently, no broad risk index exists for radiological facilities, such as healthcare centers and universities. this study aims to develop and demonstrate a methodology to compute a potential facility risk index (pfri) based on a probable loss event (le) and loss magnitude (lm) resulting from a radiological dispersal device (rdd) attack. the threat component of the pfri is devised as a utility function weighing the threat group attributes and rdd radioactive material preference. the principles of probabilistic risk assessment and pathway analysis are implemented to account for rdd radioactive material theft probabilities in different attack scenarios. locational hazards and nuclear security culture are measured as a function of radiological facility vulnerability for le. the lm of the attack, in the form of loss of life and economic damage, is then estimated to construct the pfri. the methodology is applied to a hypothetical healthcare facility with a single radioactive material asset. for this example, the pfri resulted in a value of 2.0 (on a scale of 1�10), showing low risk to the facility. the development of the pfri provides a risk analysis tool that may be useful in making decisions for radiological security improvements. 2. title: estimating flood risk impact on farmland values using boundary discontinuity: evidence from lancaster county, pennsylvania authors: haoying wang abstract: a major consequence of climate change is the growing precipitation variability around many parts of the world leading to increased occurrences of floods. while there has been a rich literature on flood risk in the urban context, flood risk in the agricultural sector has been understudied. the goal of this study is to estimate the impact of flood risk on farmland values in a watershed with active agricultural activities. the novelty of the study is to use the spatial boundary discontinuities along floodplains as a way to control unobserved spatial heterogeneities in a regression analysis framework. using parcel-level data from lancaster county (pennsylvania, usa), we show that cropland is more vulnerable to potential flood risk compared to noncrop farmland. specifically, cropland parcels on average experience a 13% (or $3,895/acre in 2015 usd, with the 95% confidence interval being [$510, $7352]) value reduction if exposed to a 1% or higher annual chance of flooding. the flood risk impact on noncrop farmland is statistically insignificant. the difference between cropland and noncrop farmland in valuing the potential flood risk implies different flood preparedness and risk management strategies. based on the empirical findings, policy implications for flood insurance, agricultural water management, land-use practice, and other flood mitigation strategies are explored. 3. title: a risk-science approach to vulnerability classification authors: shital a. thekdi, terje aven abstract: advancements in the risk literature and recent events have highlighted the need for recognizing and managing system vulnerabilities. however, established definitions of vulnerability typically involve only static concepts that are limited to measurement of system characteristics. advancements in risk modeling, combined with the dynamic nature of data availability, and processing call for the need to understand the various dimensions and time-dependent properties of vulnerability within risk-informed decision making. there is need to: (1) understand and classify aspects of vulnerability that exist in various systems, such as related to engineering, business, and healthcare, while recognizing both properties of the system and associated knowledge, (2) reconcile these definitions of vulnerabilities with existing concepts, such as sensitivity analysis and fragility, and (3) explore the implications of various types of vulnerability on risk management decisions. the main contributions of this work include classifying dynamic characteristics of system vulnerability and leveraging information about the multidimensional properties of vulnerability within risk management decisions that apply to a collection of risk events. as a proof of concept, we illustrate the vulnerability classification on the covid-19 pandemic. this article will be of interest to both risk researchers and practitioners. 4. title: defensive resource allocation: the roles of forecast information and risk control authors: yucheng dong, xia chen, kyle hunt, jun zhuang abstract: in defensive resource allocation problems, the defender usually collects some forecast information about the attacker. however, the forecast information may be incorrect, which means that there could be a risk associated with the defender using it in their decision making. in this article, we propose a forecast and risk control (frc) framework to manage the risk in defensive resource allocation with forecast information. in the frc framework, we introduce a new measure of risk and three types of defense plans: riskless defense plan, risky defense plan, and risk-control defense plan. several desirable properties based on the concepts of reward and penalty show that the risk-control defense plan is a general form to support defensive resource allocation. subsequently, we study a specific defensive allocation problem with forecast information and develop an optimization model that considers the forecast information and the defender's risk tolerance level in order to obtain the risk-control defense plan with maximum reward. furthermore, we provide some numerical analysis to illustrate the effects of forecast information and risk tolerance level on the risk-control defense plan. finally, a numerical case study is presented to demonstrate the usability of a risk-control defense plan. 5. title: airport exposure to lightning strike hazard in the contiguous united states authors: yiyi he, sarah lindbergh, coolidge graves, jasenka rakas abstract: reliability of the air transportation system heavily depends on the performance of communication, navigation, and surveillance facilities in the national airspace system (nas). these facilities are prone to outages caused by convective weather, such as lightning. current lightning safety standards and risk assessments focus solely on lightning occurrence and omit the effect of lightning intensity from hazard characterization. we propose methods that incorporate lightning intensity and occurrence parameters to better understand the impact of lightning strike on the nas using the national lightning detection network and federal aviation administration nas facilities and equipment outage databases. spatial analysis and clustering reveal different exposure profiles for 436 u.s. airports. kernel density estimation and hot spot analysis show that regardless of lightning intensity, southern state airports are the most exposed to lightning hazards. k-means clustering reveal five different lightning exposure profiles that mimic the spatial patterns produced by the kernel density estimation and hot spot analysis. a scoring system ranks all airports according to their exposure profile taking into consideration lightning occurrence and intensity. it is complemented with a rising trend exposure analysis, which identifies airports whose exposure could be underestimated under the current standards, identifying airports with fewer lightning occurrences but higher intensities. finally, a comparison between the exposure patterns and lightning-induced outages provide insights into u.s. lightning impact patterns. similar patterns between lightning exposure and outages indicate that the results of the proposed lightning hazard assessment provide useful information for prioritizing airport hardening investments at the national scale and reducing lightning risk. 6. title: the economics of investment and prioritization of flood risk reduction measures in a watershed authors: david corderi-novoa, tsuneki hori, luis e. yamin abstract: existing and projected economic losses caused by floods all over the world have generated a growing consensus about the need for investment in flood risk mitigation. most of the evidence on the returns to risk reduction is based on cost�benefit analysis performed for specific measures, lacking a comprehensive appraisal of alternatives. this article presents an integrated approach to consistently prioritize potential flood mitigation measures in a river basin and determine the economically desirable investment level in flood risk reduction. an optimization model is developed to select the type, size, and schedule of flood risk mitigation measures over a planning horizon. the model is formulated as a dynamic mixed integer linear program and applied to a river basin where severe floods have occurred historically. a variety of individual and combinations of risk reduction measures are used as inputs for the model. initial analysis is conducted for different scenarios of flood damage growth, investment financing constraints, and decisionmakers� preferences toward extreme and future losses. results show that investment in flood risk reduction is economically justified in the basin. investment is greater for higher rates of damage growth and aversion to extreme flood losses. financing constraints only affect the rate of implementation of risk reduction measures in the initial periods. the proposed integrated approach can inform the design of investment plans for flood risk reduction based on sound economic principles, providing valuable support to decisionmakers. 7. title: a risk assessment method for multi-hazard coupling disasters authors: zhichao he, wenguo weng abstract: multi-hazard coupling disasters, in which multiple hazards occur simultaneously and interact to compound the consequences, are a common phenomenon. the assessment of the individual risk in multi-hazard coupling disasters faces several difficulties due to the nonlinear additivity of risks from multiple hazards. this article presents the choquet integral multiple linear regression model as a method of overcoming the problems of nonlinear additivity. using this method, the nonlinear additive individual risks of multi-hazard coupling disasters can be superposed with the nonadditivity of the fuzzy measure during the choquet integral and the nonlinearity of the choquet integral itself. this method also takes into account the effects of magnification on the severity of disasters and the vulnerability of victims in multi-hazard disasters. it provides the magnification coefficients to quantitatively calculate the risks of all disasters. to examine the efficacy of the risk-assessment measure, this article uses as a case study the severe fire and explosion disaster that occurred in a port at tianjin, china, in 2015. from this case study, it can be concluded that the composite individual risk of multi-hazard coupling disasters is greater than that of the simple addition of the risk of each hazard. this finding indicates that multi-hazard coupling disasters are more severe than disasters involving single hazards. moreover, this risk-assessment method provides guidance in preventing, estimating, and dealing with multi-hazard coupling disasters. it can also provide solutions to complex risk-analysis problems in fields, such as finance, economics, and information science. 8. title: the public health impact of implementing a concentration-based microbiological criterion for controlling salmonella in ground turkey authors: elisabetta lambertini, juliana m. ruzante, barbara b. kowalcyk abstract: despite initiatives to improve the safety of poultry products in the united states, progress has stalled, and salmonellosis incidence is still above healthy people 2020's goal. one strategy to manage salmonella and verify process control in poultry establishments is to implement microbiological criteria (mc) linked to public health outcomes. concentration-based mc have been used by the food industry; however, the public health impact of such approaches is only starting to be assessed. this study evaluated the public health impact of a concentration-based mc for salmonella in raw ground turkey consumed in the united states using a quantitative risk assessment modeling approach. the distribution of salmonella concentration in ground turkey was derived from usda-fsis monitoring surveys. other variables and parameters were derived from public databases, literature, and expert opinion. based on considered concentrations, implementing a mc of 1 cell/g led to an estimated 46.1% reduction (preventable fraction, pf) in the mean probability of illness when consumer cooking and cross-contamination were included. the pf was consistent across scenarios including or excluding cross-contamination and cooking, with slightly lower mean pf when cross-contamination was included. the proportion of lots not compliant with the 1 cell/g mc was 1.05% in the main scenarios and increased nonlinearly when higher salmonella concentrations were assumed. assumptions on concentration variability across lots and within lots had a large impact, highlighting the benefit of reducing this uncertainty. these approach and results can help inform the development of mc to monitor and control salmonella in ground turkey products. 9. title: importance of distributional forms for the assessment of protozoan pathogens concentrations in drinking-water sources authors: �mile sylvestre, mich�le pr�vost, patrick smeets, gertjan medema, jean-baptiste burnet, philippe cantin, manuela villion, caroline robert, sarah dorner abstract: the identification of appropriately conservative statistical distributions is needed to predict microbial peak events in drinking water sources explicitly. in this study, poisson and mixed poisson distributions with different upper tail behaviors were used for modeling source water cryptosporidium and giardia data from 30 drinking water treatment plants. small differences (<0.5-log) were found between the �best� estimates of the mean cryptosporidium and giardia concentrations with the poisson�gamma and poisson�log-normal models. however, the upper bound of the 95% credibility interval on the mean cryptosporidium concentrations of the poisson�log-normal model was considerably higher (>0.5-log) than that of the poisson�gamma model at four sites. the improper choice of a model may, therefore, mislead the assessment of treatment requirements and health risks associated with the water supply. discrimination between models using the marginal deviance information criterion (mdic) was unachievable because differences in upper tail behaviors were not well characterized with available data sets (5�[�<30). therefore, the gamma and the log-normal distributions fit the data equally well but may predict different risk estimates when they are used as an input distribution in an exposure assessment. the collection of event-based monitoring data and the modeling of larger routine monitoring data sets are recommended to identify appropriately conservative distributions to predict microbial peak events. 10. title: impact of hydrometeorological events for the selection of parametric models for protozoan pathogens in drinking-water sources authors: �mile sylvestre, jean-baptiste burnet, sarah dorner, patrick smeets, gertjan medema, manuela villion, mounia hachad, mich�le pr�vost abstract: temporal variations in concentrations of pathogenic microorganisms in surface waters are well known to be influenced by hydrometeorological events. reasonable methods for accounting for microbial peaks in the quantification of drinking water treatment requirements need to be addressed. here, we applied a novel method for data collection and model validation to explicitly account for weather events (rainfall, snowmelt) when concentrations of pathogens are estimated in source water. online in situ �-d-glucuronidase activity measurements were used to trigger sequential grab sampling of source water to quantify cryptosporidium and giardia concentrations during rainfall and snowmelt events at an urban and an agricultural drinking water treatment plant in quebec, canada. we then evaluate if mixed poisson distributions fitted to monthly sampling data (5�[� = 30 samples) could accurately predict daily mean concentrations during these events. we found that using the gamma distribution underestimated high cryptosporidium and giardia concentrations measured with routine or event-based monitoring. however, the log-normal distribution accurately predicted these high concentrations. the selection of a log-normal distribution in preference to a gamma distribution increased the annual mean concentration by less than 0.1-log but increased the upper bound of the 95% credibility interval on the annual mean by about 0.5-log. therefore, considering parametric uncertainty in an exposure assessment is essential to account for microbial peaks in risk assessment. 11. title: a one-health quantitative model to assess the risk of antibiotic resistance acquisition in asian populations: impact of exposure through food, water, livestock and humans authors: lulla opatowski, marion opatowski, sirenda vong, laura temime abstract: antimicrobial resistance (amr) has become a major threat worldwide, especially in countries with inadequate sanitation and low antibiotic regulation. however, adequately prioritizing amr interventions in such settings requires a quantification of the relative impacts of environmental, animal, and human sources in a one-health perspective. here, we propose a stochastic quantitative risk assessment model for the different components at interplay in amr selection and spread. the model computes the incidence of amr colonization in humans from five different sources: water or food consumption, contacts with livestock, and interhuman contacts in hospitals or the community, and combines these incidences into a per-year acquisition risk. using data from the literature and monte-carlo simulations, we apply the model to hypothetical asian-like settings, focusing on resistant bacteria that may cause infections in humans. in both scenarios a, illustrative of low-income countries, and b, illustrative of high-income countries, the overall individual risk of becoming colonized with resistant bacteria at least once per year is high. however, the average predicted incidence of colonization was lower in scenario b at 0.82 (cri [0.13, 5.1]) acquisitions/person/year, versus 1.69 (cri [0.66, 11.13]) acquisitions/person/year for scenario a. a high percentage of population with no access to improved water on premises and a high percentage of population involved in husbandry are shown to strongly increase the amr acquisition risk. the one-health amr risk assessment framework we developed may prove useful to policymakers throughout asia, as it can easily be parameterized to realistically reproduce conditions in a given country, provided data are available. 12. title: the boundary of the market for biosecurity risk authors: gary stoneham, susan m hester, johnny siu-hang li, rui zhou, atibhav chaudhry abstract: imported goods create value in destination countries but also create biosecurity risk. although widely used in other domains of the economy, risk markets have not been created to manage losses that occur when exotic pests and diseases are introduced with traded goods. in this article we show that not all biosecurity risks are insurable. losses arising from effort needed to detect and respond to exotic pests and diseases that breach national borders appear to be insurable because entry of these threats and consequent response costs, can be regarded as random events. as pests and diseases establish and spread, however, loss of access to export markets and productivity losses display systematic risk and appear to be uninsurable. other insurability criteria support this definition of the boundary of biosecurity risk markets. we use the australian biosecurity system as an example, although the framework described in this study will be applicable to biosecurity systems worldwide. we argue that biosecurity risk insurance could be incorporated into the current biosecurity system but would require legislation mandating importers to purchase insurance. advantages of actuarial pricing of biosecurity risk are: (i) an increase in economic efficiency to the extent that importers respond to the price of biosecurity risk; (ii) financial sustainability would improve because actuarial pricing creates a structural link between funds available for biosecurity activities and risk exposure; and (iii) equity issues evident in the current biosecurity system could be addressed because risk creators (importers) would fund response activities through the purchase of insurance. 13. title: is food irrigated with oilfield-produced water in the california central valley safe to eat? a probabilistic human health risk assessment evaluating trace metals exposure authors: jennifer hoponick redmon, andrew john kondash, donna womack, ted lillys, laura feinstein, luis cabrales, erika weinthal, avner vengosh abstract: reuse of oilfield-produced water (opw) for crop irrigation has the potential to make a critical difference in the water budgets of highly productive but drought-stressed agricultural watersheds. this is the first peer-reviewed study to evaluate how trace metals in opw used to irrigate california crops may affect human health. we modeled and quantified risks associated with consuming foods irrigated with opw using available concentration data. the probabilistic risk assessment simulated opw metal concentrations, crop uptake, human exposures, and potential noncancer and carcinogenic health effects. overall, our findings indicate that there is a low risk of ingesting toxic amounts of metals from the consumption of tree nuts, citrus, grapes, and root vegetables irrigated with low-saline opw. results show increased arsenic cancer risk (at 10"6) for adult vegetarians, assuming higher consumption of multiple foods irrigated with opw that contain high arsenic concentrations. all other cancer risks are below levels of concern and all noncancer hazards are far below levels of concern. arsenic risk concerns could be mitigated by practices such as blending high-arsenic opw. future risk assessment research should model the risks of organic compounds in opw, as our study focused on inorganic compounds. nevertheless, our findings indicate that low-saline opw may provide a safe and sustainable alternative irrigation water source if water quality is adequately monitored and blended as needed prior to irrigation. 14. title: communicating about contaminated site cleanup using coordinated and consistent metrics: opportunity and challenge for the u.s. department of energy authors: karen lowrie, henry mayer, michael greenberg abstract: over $500 billion has gone toward cleanup of large contaminated sites owned and/or operated by the u.s. federal government over the past 30 years. nevertheless, some stakeholders worry about the risks associated "( -./19:��ʻʻʩ��wobtm?t2thj�5�ojqj^jo(h2`h2`5�ojqj^jh2`h2`h�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(hl%�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h2`h2`5�cjojqj^jajh2`5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h2`h2`5�cjojqj^jaj./0��}~��< 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lessons drawn from risk communication literature can inform practices for communicating metrics related to cleanup progress at u.s department of energy former nuclear weapon sites to different audiences. following the review of literature, we present a case study that explores metrics being used and communicated on the websites of doe and its largest sites, and discuss the consistency of these metrics and implications for public understanding and trust of progress being made. we finish the manuscript by applying the principles from the literature to the findings from the case study to suggest how the doe could consider improvements in the format, content or delivery of cleanup progress metrics to its various audiences. �nn/ffnċ� 15. title: how to avoid a climate disaster: the solutions we have and the breakthroughs we need. r�t��7�8�@�a�r�s�t�]�^�z�|�дԕքߔ��ʼ�弥��ybkb7k7'hu,�b*ojqj^jajmh phsh -hu,�hu,�b*ojqj^jajmh phsh -h�#�hu,�b*ojqj^jajmh phsh h�#�hu,�ojqj^jajhu,�hu,�ojqj^jajh$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh$?�h �5�ojqj^jo(hu,�hu,�hmw�h �5�ojqj^jh[h �5�ojqj^juhu,�5�ojqj^jhu,�hu,�5�ojqj^jh �5�ojqj^jo(knopf, alfred a. new york: penguin books. 2021. 257 pp. authors: m. granger morgan abstract: the article reviews the book �how to avoid a climate disaster: the solutions we have and the breakthroughs we need� by bill gates. ��ƹ��h�0mjh�0muh)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(hih)w�ojqj^jo('hu,�b*ojqj^jajmh phsh -hu,�hu,�b*ojqj^jajmh phsh ��gd)w�01�82p��. ��a!�"�#��$��%��s��s2�� 0@p`p��2(�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p��8x�v~�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@pj_hmh nhsh thj`��jck�e$1$a$ cjkh_hajmh nhsh th$a ��$؞��k=�w[sobi��bnf�h�&��ŝ�]�6��ҩ��n=��in��a7��qb&>!"�h [�� lx�z)��w�v�og�%�ţ|8mă#�/��8��'��=��q�u*��c�`c�w{�d6��/�[��yl��%�� n� {�\�o�sm�/�~��i�bcax��/=xe��'5��&\�h�4da��,ye\}�)�l�a��r�^��*�z��y�v-wowz�n�]��:m�v�=t�c��w��r�b��*i�v�u�r��u��|�nc`�|��*^��pk! 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