-尊龙游戏旗舰厅官网

��ࡱ�>�� r� �bjbj!.!.2�cd�gcd�g�% ��66��8\zd�w��v�v�v�v�v�v�v$ey�\fw9��w��49w�"�"�"��v�"��v�"�"�"��2�i��^�"�vow0w�"a\ ra\�"�""0a\�s��"��ww` ��w��a\��6b�: world development volume 173, issue 1, january 2024 1. title: ideology and rifles: the agrarian origins of civil conflict in colombia authors: maria del pilar lopez-uribe, fabio sanchez torres abstract: we investigate the relationship between the historical dispossession of peasants� lands by landlords that led to the rise of peasant grievances and the origin of the rural guerrilla movement � revolutionary forces of colombia (farc) � during the first stage of the colombian civil conflict (1964�1985). we propose two sequential mechanisms through which previous land dispossession resulted in the emergence of rebel-armed groups. first, the ideological cohesion stemming from radical liberals and communists exacerbated the grievances and helped to shape the political objectives of the rebel armed groups. once revolutionary ideology had spread in the rural areas, the exposure to violent events that gave military training, access to weapons, and military experience to the rural population, ended up facilitating the formation of rebel groups. using a matching-pair instrumental variable approach and a novel municipal-level data set, the study documents that municipalities experiencing floods between 1914 and 1946 were more likely to experience land dispossession than municipalities that did not. floods temporarily worsened the conditions of the land and its value, facilitating the dispossession of peasant land by large landowners and the rise of grievances. 2. title: locating kadu in adivasi portrayals of protected forest areas in southern india authors: helina jolly, terre satterfield, milind kandlikar, tr suma abstract: globally, indigenous peoples are the stewards of a large portion of the global land base, and their interactions and associations with the land have shaped and sustained it for centuries. yet conservation studies and land management practices still struggle to understand or use indigenous interpretations of the natural world. in many cases, this perpetuates a colonial sensibility across land use policies, which also dangerously misrepresents indigenous relationships with that land. this paper focuses on kattunayakans, a hunter-forager adivasi (indigenous) community living within the wayanad wildlife sanctuary in kerala, india. our focus is how they characterize kadu (�forest� in kattunayakan language), both what it is constituted of and what it means from an adivasi point of view. using open-ended interviews, transect walks, and spatial mapping we find that for kattunayakans, the forest is seen as an entity with agency; and a body of discrete biocultural landscape units classified as: a convergence of good places and god people; and a realm of spaces populated by kinfolk with fluid human-and-nonhuman identities that do not follow any physical boundaries of protected areas. this understanding of what a protected area forest is and is comprised of is neither adequately represented and discussed in the history of india's protected areas nor addressed in forest and wildlife management policies and approaches. this is highly consequential for adivasi communities such as kattunayakans, who do not have written or material evidence of their productive and historical relationship to forest land. we argue, as well, that when engaged appropriately, adivasi portrayals of the kadu can bolster equity in land management and strengthen collaborative governance that more broadly advances human rights alongside the goals of biodiversity conservation. 3. title: spillover effects and diffusion of savings groups authors: chris heitzig, rossa o�keeffe-o�donovan abstract: we estimate the spatial spillover effects of a program to promote savings groups in uganda and malawi. we use geolocation data from a cluster-randomized experiment to compare the outcomes of households in areas where a high proportion of nearby villages were randomly assigned to treatment to those in areas where a low proportion of nearby villages were assigned to treatment. we have four key results. first, take-up of the program is highest in villages where promotion by ngo-employed field officers was concentrated � promotion by peers was about half as effective, and �organic� replication was rare. second, we find evidence of large positive between-village spillover effects on total income, food security, and business outcomes in control villages. third, we estimate positive direct effects of the program on business outcomes and financial inclusion � these estimates are qualitatively similar to a previous evaluation of the program (karlan et al., 2017) which did not account for spillovers, though our estimated impacts on business outcomes are larger. finally, we estimate that 23%�28% of the overall benefits of the program are not captured by an analysis which does not account for spatial spillover effects. 4. title: cash transfers amid shocks: a large, one-time, unconditional cash transfer to refugees in uganda has multidimensional benefits after 19 months authors: prankur gupta, daniel stein, kyla longman, heather lanthorn, ... penny davis abstract: refugees in protracted displacement are often limited in their opportunities for income-generating activities and investments, making them dependent on aid for meeting basic needs. in the context of stretched humanitarian aid budgets, it is a necessary policy question to determine ways to increase refugees� self-reliance. in this study, we combine a randomized controlled trial with extensive longitudinal qualitative data to explore the multidimensional impacts of a large, one-time, unconditional transfer of 1,000 usd to households of predominantly south sudanese refugees living in protracted displacement in uganda. estimated after 19 months, we find that the transfer significantly increased households� consumption, asset values, business ownership, business revenue, psychological well-being, and self-reliance. we find positive but insignificant effects on food security, migration, employment, or female empowerment. overall, a large one-time cash transfer given in the context of shocks has multidimensional improvements in refugees� lives, providing meaningful movement towards self-reliance. 5. title: development goals, commercial interest and eu aid-for-trade authors: bernard hoekman, anirudh shingal abstract: the extent to which official development assistance (oda) conforms to internationally agreed goals and principles of aid effectiveness may be influenced by donors� national interests. disentangling the extent to which national oda is motivated by development goals vs. commercial self-interest is difficult. european union (eu) member states provide external aid through eu-level institutions and independently through national aid programs. theory suggests pooled eu-level aid facilitates satisfying development effectiveness principles while bilateral oda is more likely to reflect national interests. we investigate this hypothesis for a subset of oda, aid for trade (aft), provided by donors to recipient countries between 2002 and 2018. we find a strong, statistically significant positive relationship between aft provided by eu donors and their exports to recipient countries. in contrast, aft provided by eu institutions and non-european states enhances merchandise imports from recipient countries. 6. title: parental early-life exposure to land reform and household investment in children�s education authors: haining wang, zhiming cheng, russell smyth abstract: we examine the intergenerational relationship between the early-life exposure of parents to china�s household responsibility system (hrs) reform, which assigned collective-owned farmland to individual households, and investment in their children�s education. we find that an increase in the length of exposure of parents to the hrs reform when they were children or adolescents increases the extent to which they invest in their children�s education, although there is some evidence of non-linearities with investment peaking at 13�14 years of exposure to the hrs. we find that parental income and wealth, parental human capital and the improvement in public benefits that stem from land reform are channels through which parental early-life reform exposure affects expenditure on their children�s education. we also find considerable heterogeneity in the relationship across subsamples of individuals. specifically, we find that education investment in children in junior high and senior high schools and children in the eastern region benefit more from parents� early-life exposure to the hrs. 7. title: mitigating the legacy of violence: can flood relief improve people�s trust in government in conflict-affected areas? evidence from pakistan authors: kristina petrova, elisabeth l. rosvold abstract: climate change and violent conflict present two of the most substantial barriers to reaching the sustainable development goals by 2030. many of the countries bearing the greatest impacts of a changing climate also grapple with protracted armed conflict. despite this, we still have limited knowledge about how political and environmental insecurities affect trust in the institutions that are responsible for disaster management, security and conflict resolution. in this paper we explore whether being exposed to violent armed conflict is associated with low levels of political trust, and whether this can be mitigated by state action. relying on a household survey covering some 2000 rural households in pakistan, we investigate how state disaster response shaped trust in conflict-affected contexts in the years following the severe flooding of 2010. our study suggest that negative implications of violence exposure on political trust can be offset by disaster relief efforts by the state, but only in instances when the government is not involved in the violent activities. our findings contribute to our understanding of the joint impact of conflict and disasters on political trust, and importantly shows that in some instances, government interventions in a different political domain can reduce negative consequences of armed conflict on trust. understanding the interplay of compound risks in contexts where multiple risks are occurring simultaneously is crucial because without adequate, coordinated government action, it will be impossible to protect the lives, health and livelihoods of affected people in pakistan and beyond. 8. title: political economy of refugees: how responsibility shapes the politics of education authors: shelby carvalho, sarah dryden-peterson abstract: in this theory generating article, we take up the question of what shapes the role of host governments in social service provision for refugees, using the case of education. we consider the ways in which traditional theories relevant to the political economy of education vary under a responsibility sharing model of refugee education that has developed in recent years. under a traditional development approach, in which refugees are integrated into national systems over the long-run, like in the united states or canada, we would expect the political economy of education to operate similarly to national or other migrant populations. under a humanitarian model, we would expect responsibility for service provision to align clearly with humanitarian actors, with demands, purposes, and incentives distinct from and minimally entangled with those of hosting states. under new responsibility sharing models, lines of responsibility become opaque and the political economy of education, including ideas about the purposes of education, actors and the nature of demand, and incentives for its provision become more complex. we argue that the political economy of refugees can be understood as distinct from the political economy for citizens as it requires addressing fundamental questions of responsibility and assumptions about time horizons. our proposed conceptualization of the political economy of refugees draws on theories from political science, economics, sociology, education, and refugee studies. as host countries and the global community grapple with decisions about services for refugees across sectors, it is critical to understand ways in which factors shaping the political economy may be distinct from national citizens to ensure that approaches are equitable and effective for refugees and host communities. 9. title: mining and violence in latin america: the state�s coercive responses to anti-mining resistance authors: moises arce, camilo nieto-matiz abstract: the expansion of mining and conflict violence are closely related phenomena, but there is widespread variation in the coercive responses state actors embrace to subdue resistance to mining. to explain this variation, we emphasize the interplay of motives (incentives) and opportunities (enabling conditions) available to state actors. contrasting previous approaches, we provide a cross national analysis on the determinants of coercive responses for all latin american countries. our analysis also considers various forms of violent and non-violent coercive responses by the state. our results support a motive-based explanation: state actors adopt coercive responses when the mobilizing capacity of communities as shown by indigenous involvement is the strongest, and when the economic potential of mining properties as indicated by their lootability is the highest. our findings have implications for the expansion of extractive activities beyond mining. 10. title: is energy aid allocated fairly? a global energy vulnerability perspective authors: kangyin dong, qingzhe jiang, yang liu, zhiyang shen, michael vardanyan abstract: the escalating climate change crisis is causing many developing countries to become more vulnerable to energy-related challenges, highlighting the issue of fairness in allocating energy aid. given this context, it is important to ensure countries that face higher energy vulnerabilities receive a greater share of energy aid funding. this study aims to assess the impact of energy vulnerability on energy aid allocation using a double-hurdle model and a panel of 124 countries from 2002 to 2019. we rely on an index of energy vulnerability to understand the differences in the amount of aid available to different energy-vulnerable recipients, and study the transmission mechanisms underlying this relationship. our results suggest that the allocation of energy aid has been largely fair. specifically, energy-vulnerable countries are more likely to be selected as recipients of energy aid during the selection stage, and subsequently receive a greater share of this aid during the allocation stage. however, this effect is heterogeneous and asymmetric. donors tend to allocate energy aid to countries characterized by relatively low quality of government, low income levels, and limited access to energy assistance. furthermore, disparities exist in the impact of energy vulnerability on different types of energy support. specifically, countries with higher energy vulnerability receive a greater proportion of energy policy and energy distribution aid, but are allocated a relatively small share of aid to their non-renewable energy-generation sectors. additionally, the relationship between energy vulnerability and renewable energy generation aid is not statistically significant. our results highlight the importance of considering energy vulnerability when allocating energy assistance, and have both scholarly and practical significance. our findings also have important policy implications for donors by providing guidance on how to promote a fairer allocation of energy aid. 11. title: unlucky to have brothers: sibling sex composition and girls� locus of control authors: te bao, yuemei yuan, weidong luo, bin xu abstract: we explore the relationship between sibling sex composition, gender inequality and girls� locus of control. among girls aged 10�15 in china, girls with brothers are lower in internal locus of control than girls with sisters, i.e., they believe that success depends more on external forces than on their own effort. we ascribe it to parental son preferences based on evidence about parents� evaluations of the importance of continuing the family lineage and the stringency level of fertility policies. the channel is that parents allocate fewer productive resources, e.g., after-school tutoring and parental school involvement, to girls when they have sons. our findings highlight that gender inequality may cause negative impacts on girls� locus of control. 12. title: impacts of the russian invasion of ukraine on the global wheat market authors: stephen devadoss, william ridley abstract: the russian invasion of ukraine that began in february 2022 has caused significant disruption to global agricultural markets. as ukraine is the world's ninth largest producer and fifth largest exporter of wheat, the widespread, destructive effects of the war have serious implications for food prices and global food security. we analyze the impacts of this war on production, consumption, trade, and prices of wheat using a global spatial equilibrium model (sem). our results suggest that this conflict causes wheat prices to increase in every country (by around 2%) except ukraine where prices fell by about 27%. though other wheat exporting countries augment their exports to capture the market share lost by ukraine in major importing countries, many of these importing countries suffer from reduced wheat consumption. not surprisingly, russia benefits by exporting wheat at the expense of ukraine to importing countries that traditionally relied on ukrainian wheat. because of the war, we estimate that ukraine's wheat producers experience a $1.4 billion loss in producer surplus. 13. title: finance, informal competition, and expectations: a firm-level analysis authors: emanuele brancati, michele di maio, aminur rahman abstract: this paper documents the link between finance and informal competition. using longitudinal firm-level data, we show that formal firms that are more exposed to the competition of informal firms are less likely to apply for a bank loan. this result is not due to sample selection, omitted variable bias, or reverse causality, and it is robust to different econometric specifications, including the use of an iv strategy. as for the mechanism explaining our result, we show that firms more exposed to informal competition have worse expectations on future sales growth, which in turn are associated with a lower probability of loan application. finally, we provide suggestive evidence excluding supply-side mechanisms that may explain heterogeneities in firms� access to finance. 14. title: well-being costs of unpaid care: gendered evidence from a contextualized time-use survey in india authors: aashima sinha, ashish kumar sedai, dil bahadur rahut, tetsushi sonobe abstract: using a contextualized primary time-use survey (tus) data, we examine the gendered effects of unpaid care work on care providers� well-being outcomes� labor supply, time allocation, life satisfaction, happiness, and health in india. a reduced form weighted composite score of health conditions and assistance need within household, and presence of care centers in the community is used as an instrument for caregiving. using two-stage least squared instrumental variables estimation, we find greater adverse effects of caregiving on women compared to men. an additional hour of caregiving reduces women�s: i) probability of labor market participation by 20 percentage points (pp) and their employment hours by over one hour per day; ii) self-care and socializing time; and iii) probability of life satisfaction and happiness; with either no significant or smaller negative effects for men. to our knowledge, this is the first attempt to implement a contextualized tus, comprising rich data on households� care needs, private and public care provisioning, households� access to technology and consumer durables, gender norms, and women�s empowerment. moreover, the first study in the context of india to provide gender-differentiated effects of unpaid care on well-being. the study draws policy implications focusing on interventions directed towards mitigating restrictive gender norms, access to durable goods and reducing the burden of domestic chores. 15. title: spatial inequality, poverty and informality in the democratic republic of the congo authors: douglas amuli ibale, fr�d�ric docquier, zainab iftikhar abstract: we construct a model incorporating labor market frictions to elucidate income disparities among provinces, sectors (formal vs. informal), and skill categories (skilled vs. unskilled) within the democratic republic of the congo. through quantitative analysis, we demonstrate the significance of technologies, human capital, infrastructure, and labor market frictions in explaining spatial and intra-province inequalities. although technological disparities emerge as the primary drivers, our findings underscore the presence of strong �o-ring� inequality patterns. this implies that effective development policies necessitate a mix of coordinated policy measures. when considered in isolation, policies focused on enhancing education, infrastructure, and mitigating labor market frictions could potentially escalate poverty along the intensive margin. additionally, a development policy disregarding the informal sector also yields counterproductive distributional and poverty outcomes. 16. title: cash transfers in the context of carbon pricing reforms in latin america and the caribbean authors: leonard missbach, jan christoph steckel, adrien vogt-schilb abstract: one reason carbon prices are difficult to implement is that they might imply high additional costs on poor and vulnerable households. in response, studies often highlight that recycling revenues through cash transfers can render carbon pricing reforms progressive. this neglects that existing cash transfer programs target households from low-income groups imperfectly and that impacts of a carbon price are heterogeneous within income groups. in this study, we analyze if existing cash transfer programs can help to alleviate distributional effects of carbon pricing in 16 latin american and caribbean countries. we find that carbon pricing is regressive in 11 countries and progressive in 5. most importantly, differences within income groups exceed differences between them. beyond total household expenditures, car ownership and cooking fuel usage explain the variance in carbon pricing impacts. we show that households who are most affected by carbon pricing, some of them poor, do not necessarily have access to existing cash transfer programs. we suggest that governments aiming to compensate households should consider broadening the coverage of existing cash transfer programs, utilizing in-kind transfers or removing other distortionary taxes. 17. title: late-arriving votes and electoral fraud: a natural experiment and regression discontinuity evidence from bolivia authors: diego escobari, gary a. hoover abstract: this paper uses a unique data set and a natural experiment to test if electoral fraud can exist in late-arriving votes. on the night of the 2019 bolivian elections, the official vote counting system that was expected to publish the results real-time, suddenly stopped. when it resumed, the results had flipped. we estimate several difference-in-differences specifications using a 2016 referendum and the votes of other political parties. we find that the extent of the fraud is 2.51% of the valid votes, sufficient to change the outcome of the election. our results are robust to polling-station-level shocks common across 2019 and 2016, as well as 2019 specific shocks. this controls for geography, socioeconomic characteristics, unobserved voting preferences, and endogeneity in the arrival of the polling station results. we report evidence of fraud that occurred before the shutdown and document a statistically significant discontinuous jump in the votes during the shutdown. we provide insights on how to apply our different identification strategies to test for fraud in other elections. 18. title: going organic: challenges for government-supported organic rice promotion and certification nationalism in thailand authors: ian g. baird abstract: there is increasing interest in organic lowland rice cultivation in thailand. farmers are becoming more wary about the human health and environmental impacts of using herbicides and pesticides. in addition, consumers are increasingly demanding rice cultivated without the use of chemicals. there is also more interest in accessing international and local organic rice markets. thus, in 2017 the government of thailand�s ministry of agriculture and cooperatives rolled out a project designed to promote organic rice farming through subsidizing the conversion of one million-rai (160,000 ha) of lowland rice farms to being organic over a three-year period. although the initiative was well intended, and constitutes local agency, the project has faced serious obstacles because the organic certification standards associated with the project do not align with international standards. this has negatively impacted the structures that support organic farming, by giving farmers unrealistic expectations regarding what is required to produce organic rice for the international market. the thai certification system also has different ecological implications compared to other certification systems, because value systems always affect certification systems and their material implications. applying a political ecology approach�with an emphasis on political relations, economic structure, ecological change, and scalar politics�this article examines the one million-rai project. it is contended that �certification nationalism� is manifesting, and that there are important lessons to be learned about planning and implementing such certification initiatives. 19. title: the effects of the indonesian conditional cash transfer program on transition out of agriculture authors: efi yuliani, rus'an nasrudin abstract: this study evaluates the effect of a conditional cash transfer (cct) on the structural transformation process in a developing economy. it uses randomized control trial (rct) data from indonesia�s conditional cash transfer program, the family hope program (pkh), to examine whether the pkh program has a significant impact on whether or not agricultural households have moved to other sectors after six years of implementation of the program. the estimates reveal modest impacts of the pkh program on diversification of livelihoods outside agriculture. the treatment group has a 28 percent higher participation in nonfarm wage employment and a 23 percent higher rate of employment in a nonfarm enterprise (nfe) compared to the control group. the heterogeneous impact analysis reveals that distance from a market is a major factor in determining the type of non-agricultural employment. individuals in households with only a small amount of land who reside near a market are more likely to be casual workers, while individuals in households with only a small amount of land who reside far from a market are more likely to have an nfe. interestingly, participation in a cct program has larger effects on households residing in nonindustrial areas than in industrial areas, in terms of both nonfarm wage employment and employment in a nonfarm enterprise. 20. title: effect of intergovernmental transfers on income and poverty rates: evidence from the philippines authors: cheng-tao tang, chun yee wong, orelie bathan delas alas abstract: despite that subnational governments are key actors in the provision of public services, there are concerns about whether providing additional funding to them in developing countries can raise the living standards of local communities. this study investigates the impact of intergovernmental transfers on development outcomes at municipality and city levels in the philippines from 1994 to 2015. since the revenue-sharing mechanism between central and local governments in the philippines follows a pre-determined formula, we leverage this feature and apply the instrumental variable (iv) method for estimation. our results suggest that the household disposable income per capita increases by 9.6% in the long run due to extra transfers of 1,000 pesos per capita in the philippine local governments. the poverty rate has also decreased by approximately five percentage points in the long run. the improvement of development outcomes mainly occurs in small and less-developed local governments. finally, we examine the effect of intergovernmental transfers on local expenditure and taxation; then we discuss how the results of local finance behavior can explain the observed developmental impact. 21. title: does reducing income inequality promote the decoupling of economic growth from carbon footprint? authors: aoyu hou, ao liu, li chai abstract: mitigating climate change, improving economic growth, and reducing income inequality are three of sustainable development goals (17 sdgs). it has been well understood that economic growth has a significant impact on carbon footprint, but it remains unclear whether this impact will be mitigated or intensified by reducing income inequality. by applying the multi-regional input-output model, this study assesses the consumption-based carbon footprints of 43 major economies over the period 1995�2019 and conducts the corresponding empirical analysis. through examining the moderating effect of income inequality (gini coefficient) on the relationship between economic growth (gdp per capita) and consumption-based carbon footprint (co2 per capita), we demonstrate that a lower gini coefficient a more equitable distribution of income " could significantly promote the decoupling of economic growth from carbon footprint. the results also show a heterogeneous moderating effect of income inequality reducing income inequality in rich countries helps decouple economic growth from carbon footprint more than in poor countries. this study contributes to a better understanding of the synergy among economic growth (sdg 8), income inequality reduction (sdg 10), and carbon mitigation (sdg 13). given that reducing income inequality in the context of economic growth can have significant benefits for carbon mitigation, we would suggest that income inequality reduction should be incorporated into climate action, particularly in rich countries. 22. title: economics for an uncertain world authors: george demartino, ilene grabel, ian scoones abstract: uncertainty, where we do not know the likelihood of future events, dominates our world. this article examines how economics as a profession and discipline can address uncertainty. from frank knight to john maynard keynes to friedrich von hayek to george shackle, economics has highlighted the importance of uncertain knowledge and distinguished this from calculable risk. in this article we show how such insights were lost through the rise of narrow neoclassical thinking and were excluded through the emergence of a dominant economics of control that rose to prominence during the twentieth century and especially in the neoliberal era. however, through a range of perspectives in economics that emphasise the importance of complexity, informality, positionality and narratives, uncertainty is once again being embraced within an increasingly heterodox economics. in many ways, this chimes with the work of albert hirschman who, starting from the mid-1960s, emphasised the importance of addressing uncertainty in development theory and practice. through two examples on pastoral development and global financial governance, we highlight the continued relevance of hirschman�s thinking on the importance of adaptation, flexibility and learning-by-doing as responses to uncertainty and for the development of reliable, robust approaches to development policy and practice. in conclusion, we argue that economics theory, methodologies, professional practice and training need to change, recovering some of the insights from previous generations of economic thinkers and practitioners, in order to reinvent an economics appropriate for our uncertain world. 23. title: income inequality in guyana: class or ethnicity? new evidence from survey data authors: collin constantine abstract: this paper utilises recent survey data to estimate income inequality in guyana between 1990�2021. it finds that class-based inequality exceeds ethnic income inequality, and the latter is more pronounced in the top 10 percent of the population. the over-representation of indo- and indigenous-guyanese in the top decile increases class inequality within these groups because afro- and mixed-guyanese are over-represented in the bottom 90 percent of the population. also, the evidence shows that electoral turnover in 2015 increased the dominance of indo-guyanese in the top 10 percent relative to other groups. moreover, the paper demonstrates that fiscal policy has more explanatory power than monetary policy and structural reforms in explaining the dynamics of income inequality. overall, the evidence indicates that intra-class competition for ethnic dominance of the top decile may account for inter-ethnic conflict as politicians invest in ethnic prejudice to weaken inter-class competition and strengthen the intra-class contest. 24. title: transfers, nutrition programming, and economic well-being: experimental evidence from bangladesh authors: akhter u. ahmed, john hoddinott, shalini roy, esha sraboni abstract: many cash transfer programs include complementary nutrition training, with the aim of encouraging households to use transfer resources toward improving child nutrition. evidence indicates that these bundled programs, if intensive and well-implemented, can be effective in improving child nutritional status. however, little is known about how adding nutrition training to transfer programs affects their economic impacts. in particular, few studies have assessed whether nutrition programming may induce reallocation of transfer resources from physical capital to human capital. scarce evidence also exists as to whether these tradeoffs depend on the transfer modality. we study a pilot program called the transfer modality research initiative in bangladesh (tmri), designed as a randomized controlled trial. tmri provided cash or food transfers, with or without intensive group-based nutrition behavior change communication (bcc), to mothers of young children in poor rural households. we find that adding nutrition bcc to cash or food transfers leads to larger impacts on both consumption and assets � potentially surprising, given that the transfer value is unchanged. analysis of mechanisms suggests that these effects occur through the bcc inducing increases in income generation, through investments in livelihoods. suggestive evidence indicates that the effects of tmri�s bcc are plausibly due to the intensive group-based format, which increased social capital for participant women and their household members, as well as improved participant women�s agency and self-confidence, knowledge, and input into household decisions. results indicate that adding nutrition bcc to cash or food transfer programs do not necessarily induce a tradeoff between investing in human capital versus physical capital, but can rather strengthen impacts on both if appropriately designed. 25. title: covid-19 and extreme weather: impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of guatemala authors: francisco ceballos, manuel a. hernandez, cynthia paz abstract: this paper examines the continuing effects of covid-19 and exposure to weather extremes on income, dietary, and migration outcomes in the rural area of guatemala. we rely on a comprehensive longitudinal survey of 1,612 smallholder farmers collected over three survey rounds in 2019, 2020, and 2021. we find improvements in incomes, food security, dietary diversity, and animal source foods (asf) consumption in 2021 relative to 2020, but with levels still below pre-pandemic ones in 2019. we also find a substantial increase in the intention to emigrate that was not observed in the onset of the pandemic. in terms of the channels mediating the variations in dietary diversity and migration intentions, income shocks seem to have played a role, in contrast to direct exposure to the virus, local mobility restrictions, and food market disruptions. importantly, households exposed to eta and iota tropical storms, in addition to covid-19, were considerably more prone to exhibit larger increases in the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecure episodes and larger decreases in their diet quality and asf consumption. the study provides novel evidence on vulnerable households� wellbeing in the aftermath of a global crisis, including the effects of compound shocks. 26. title: agricultural investment behaviour and contingency: experimental evidence from uganda authors: ben d�exelle, alistair munro, arjan verschoor abstract: underinvestment in agriculture � a major cause of rural poverty � may be due to difficulties in detecting �contingency�, defined as the influence one may exert on the outcome of a decision-making situation. recently experienced contingency may create a mismatch between perceived and actual contingency in an investment decision-making situation, leading to sub-optimal investment behaviour. to test this, we use an experiment with poor farmers in uganda used to low levels of contingency, as many factors (e.g., the weather, pests, price fluctuations) obscure the link between farm investment and outcomes. we find that in situations in which some contingency is present, investment levels respond positively to recently experienced contingency. in situations in which no contingency is present (�non-contingency�), investment responds negatively to recently experienced non-contingency. the findings that perceived contingency influences investment behaviour, and perceived contingency can be readily changed, may inform new behavioural policies to promote agricultural investment. 27. title: agricultural production and food security implications of covid-19 disruption on small-scale farmer households: lessons from kenya authors: james mutegi, ivan adolwa, abed kiwia, samuel njoroge, ... monica kansiime abstract: a range of studies have highlighted the negative impacts of covid-19 disruptions on incomes, food and nutrition security among rural agricultural communities in developing countries. however, knowledge of how such disruptions affect different categories of small-scale farmers in sub-sahara africa is lacking. we used a mixed-method approach to collect data and determine the impacts of covid-19 on farm input use, agricultural production, access to agricultural information services, and food security among small-scale farmers from makueni, nakuru, siaya, kakamega, and bungoma counties in kenya. a fao-adapted farm household typology was developed with farm type 3 (wealthiest), farm type 2 (resource-constrained) and farm type 1 (most resource-constrained) farmer categories. covid-19 related disruptions led to decreased use of improved seeds, fertilizers and access to extension services across the three farmer categories. farm type 3 farmers recorded the lowest covid-19 disruption driven reduction in the use of improved seeds and fertilizers, compared to farm type 2 and 1. contrariwise, farmers increased manure application rates by 33%, with manure-associated expenditure rising by 129% across all counties. average crop incomes decreased in three of the five study counties, i.e., kakamega, nakuru and siaya, with the strongest decrease observed among farmers in type 1 and 2 households. a lower proportion of type 3 farmers were worried about not having enough food (43% of farmers) compared to type 1 (70%) and type 2 farmers (71%) across counties. the sale of household assets and livestock commonly used as measures for household wealth implies that such disruptions leave vulnerable farmers poorer and hungrier. the findings propose that policy strategies are needed to recognize heterogenous covid-19 effects and provide targeted interventions for household types most vulnerable to future disruptions of the agrifood system. 28. title: does transparency matter? evaluating the impacts of the extractive industries transparency initiative (eiti) on deforestation in resource-rich developing countries authors: harouna kinda, no�l thiombiano abstract: the exploitation of extractive industries poses a serious threat to the environment. however, the exploitation of extractive industries through an equitable and transparent resource tax regime can also finance alternative livelihoods that can prevent forest loss in the short, medium, or long term. through two main channels, this paper assesses the �treatment effect� of implementing the extractive industries transparency initiative (eiti) standard on deforestation in resource-rich developing countries. the first concerns a fair and transparent resource tax regime and environmental payments that can prevent forest loss. the second consists of improving citizens' institutions and living standards through increased government revenue. this study is the first to provide an empirical impact assessment of eiti standards on deforestation. using a sample of 83 resource-rich developing countries from 2001 to 2017, we use entropy balancing methods to address the self-selection bias associated with eiti membership. compared with the non-eiti country, the results show that implementing the eiti standard significantly reduces the loss of forest cover by approximately 300�760 ha. additionally, the magnitudes of the effects are larger and more significant if we include institutional indicators that are more important for eiti-compliant countries. this result supports the conclusion that eiti, but not a panacea, is an effective policy program for limiting the negative impacts on forests partly caused by extractive industries. this study provides clear guidance to both the eiti board and the eiti national committees, and more generally, to the governments of extractive resource-rich developing countries on the vital role of the eiti in combating forest cover loss and sustainable development finance. 29. title: adoption and intensity of agricultural mechanization and their impact on non-farm employment of rural women authors: wanglin ma, xiaoshi zhou, david boansi, godwin seyram agbemavor horlu, victor owusu abstract: this study analyzes the impact of the adoption of agricultural mechanization and its intensity on the non-farm employment of rural women using the 2016 china labor-force dynamics survey data. the study captures mechanization adoption as a dichotomous decision and adoption intensity using three types of farming strategies: non-mechanized, semi-mechanized, and fully-mechanized. non-farm work is categorized based on work types (self-employment or wage employment) and work locations (local or migrated non-farm work). both inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment (ipwra) estimator and multivalued treatment effects (mvte) model are utilized to address selection bias. the ipwra estimates reveal that mechanization adoption increases the probability of rural women participating in non-farm work in general and wage employment and local and migrated non-farm work in particular. the impact is greater for unmarried women than for their married counterparts. the mvte estimates show that relative to non-mechanized farming, the adoption of semi-or fully-mechanized farming increases the probability of rural women participating in non-farm work, wage employment, and local and migrated non-farm work, with fully-mechanized farming playing a larger role. meanwhile, relative to semi-mechanized farming, adopting fully-mechanized farming does not have a significant impact on any type of non-farm work. 30. title: redd : the perfect marriage between conservation and development? a comparative study of the impacts of redd on livelihoods and deforestation in tanzania authors: mary nantongo, arild vatn, geofrey soka abstract: this paper investigates the impacts of redd in two pilot sites in the districts of kilosa and kondoa in tanzania. we pose two questions: first: what are the impacts of redd on social welfare? and second: what are the impacts of redd on forest carbon storage? the study employs the before-after/control-intervention research design and a mixed method approach to draw conclusions on redd impacts. a theory-based evaluation is then used to understand the underlying causal mechanisms driving the observed changes. in estimating redd impacts on income, we account for potential selection bias by matching pilot and control villages on factors likely to influence selection and outcomes and by using fixed effects panel data modelling. redd impacts on forest carbon are measured using satellite imagery and ground truthing, combining data on the amount of forestland converted to other land uses, with information on how much carbon remains trapped in the forests after the land use changes. results suggest that in terms of total income, redd neither improves nor harms livelihoods in the two pilot areas. redd however, increased forest income in the kilosa pilot. redd is also associated with increased forest carbon in both kilosa and kondoa. we discuss what could explain these seemingly contradictory developments. three policy implications arise from the results 1) the need for redd projects to involve ngos/implementing partners that have a good understanding of local conditions, as local contexts play a central role in determining welfare and forest carbon outcomes 2) the importance of strengthening forest governance and management for facilitating a balance in livelihoods and forest cover improvements and 3) the significance of considering economic risk, safety nets and insurance against risk in the design of redd projects, as a failure to do so, will lead to overexploitation of forests during periods of economic crisis. 31. title: catch up with my husband as i can: women�s decision-making power consequences of china�s poverty alleviation relocation program authors: yawen ding, xiaobing wang, alan de brauw, huanguang qiu abstract: this paper examines the impact of a large-scale poverty alleviation relocation program in china on women�s intra-household decision-making power. specifically, we investigate how the timing of relocation affects this power by analyzing household survey data from 2019 and 2021. we employ an instrumental variable strategy to address potential reverse causality and selection bias. our findings suggest that relocation has a significant positive effect on women�s relative decision-making power within households, which is largely due to increased control over decisions concerning their children�s education and social events. this impact is sustained and strengthens with longer durations of relocation. mechanism analysis reveals that the relative increase in women�s decision-making power is primarily driven by the reduction of contracted woodland in relocated households and changes in women�s off-farm wages. 32. title: farmer personality and community-based extension effectiveness in tanzania authors: jarrad farris, mywish k. maredia, nicole m. mason, david l. ortega abstract: community-based extension relies on social relationships with farmers to increase the trust in and effectiveness of extension activities. personality traits play an important role in social outcomes. we develop a conceptual model which shows that farmer personality can influence the likelihood of being aware of and incorporating information from community-based extension activities. we then examine this heterogeneity empirically leveraging a previously implemented randomized control trial and a dataset of big six personality traits (agency, agreeableness, openness to experience, neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness) for bean farmers in the mbeya region of tanzania. we find that more extraverted farmers residing in villages where community extension agents were randomly selected to distribute trial packs of improved bean seed along with a demonstration plot comparison (rather than a demonstration plot comparison alone) were more likely to adopt the improved bean varieties. these farmers were also more likely to discuss bean farming with a larger proportion of farmers in their villages, indicating that the benefits of the trial pack treatment may have been greater for more sociable farmers. our findings suggest that community-based extension effectiveness may be increased by considering the role of personality in the quality and quantity of farmers� interactions within their communities. 33. title: external arms embargoes and their implications for government expenditure, democracy and internal conflict authors: sajjad faraji dizaji, syed mansoob murshed abstract: we examine how arms imports reductions due to external arms embargoes affect military expenditure, democratic quality and internal conflict in a sample of 48 countries from 1990 to 2017. we construct a theoretical model of arms restrictions influencing probabilities of peaceful and conflictual states via actions and efforts undertaken by the government and rebels to promote peace. we postulate that the effect of external arms embargoes on internal conflict is conditional, requiring empirical investigation. our empirical analysis, based on the panel vector autoregressive methods, reveals that the responses of political system and different indices of democracy to decreases in arms imports are positive, and the impact on military expenditures is negative, while the responses of education expenditures, health expenditures are positive. despite this, our findings show that arms transfer restrictions can intensify ethnic tensions and internal conflicts. 34. title: public services as carriers of ideas that (de-) legitimise the state: the illustrative case of free education in sri lanka authors: claire mcloughlin abstract: vital public services have long been considered a source of performance legitimacy for states, based on the material outputs they provide for citizens. however, cumulative evidence shows that the relationship between service delivery and citizens� perceptions of the state�s right to rule is not an instrumental equation. this article argues part of the explanation for this lies in the underexplored ideational properties of public services. theoretically, for public services to become significant for legitimacy, they must register in the repertoire of normative ideas against which the state�s moral appropriateness is ultimately judged. this article shows how this happens, empirically, using the illustrative case of free education in sri lanka. based on media, archival and interview data collected across critical junctures from independence through to the contemporary era, the historical analysis shows how free education became entwined with wider ideas about social justice during the formative period of post-colonial state transformation, how elites later capitalised on and narrated these ideas in their legitimation strategies, and how this ideational heritage has been revived to challenge the states moral authority when it is perceived to deviate from it. this case reveals the explanatory potential in tracing the entwinement of public services and normative ideas to critical junctures of state (de-)legitimation, observing how elites discursively �perform� performance legitimacy, and analysing services that carry ideas as ripe discursive arenas wherein the legitimacy of the state is claimed and contested. the implication is that the category of performance legitimacy may usefully be extended beyond the instrumental, to incorporate the ideational. �performance� legitimacy is not an exclusively instrumental source of legitimacy if, through the political process of legitimation, public services become carriers of ideas that (de-) legitimise the state. 35. title: educational consequences of firsthand exposure to armed conflict: the case of the sri lankan civil war authors: takahiro ito, jia li, ramila usoof-thowfeek, koji yamazaki abstract: this study examines the educational consequences of exposure to conflict using the case of the 1983�2009 sri lankan civil war. based on a strategy of within-sibling comparison, we estimate the educational impacts of households� firsthand experiences of different types of conflict events: human victimization, property damage, and war-induced migration. the estimation results show that the impacts of conflict exposure vary depending on the type of conflict event and the timing of exposure. in a worst-case scenario in which a household experiences two events that cause human victimization and property damage when a child is school-aged, the probability that the child completes upper secondary or higher education decreases by 97.2 percentage points, lowering educational attainment by 3.49 years (29.4 % of the sample mean). furthermore, the prolonged and significant impacts of property damage that we found suggest that providing immediate assistance to children in damaged households could be an effective measure for mitigating the loss of human capital in the next generation. 36. title: social protection and absorptive capacity: disaster preparedness and social welfare policy in the united states authors: smitha rao, ngozi v. enelamah abstract: climate change exacerbates drivers of impoverishment, necessitating a more robust evidence base to inform policy and action. recent studies have examined how social protection programs tie into climate action and disaster risk reduction globally; however, this remains underexamined in high-income country contexts. our study aims to address this gap by investigating the association between social protection and disaster preparedness in the united states. we hypothesize that reducing household vulnerability through welfare recipience builds long-term resilience and capacity for better risk-mitigation decisions. we examined how households prepare for a disaster and conceptualized disaster preparedness as a capability at the household level using nationally representative data from the american housing surveys 2017. the study employed multiple regression analyses and the karlson/holm/breen method to decompose the total, direct, and indirect effects of welfare recipience on the association between household social vulnerabilities and disaster preparedness. on average, households scored 5.01 on a nine-item preparedness scale; higher preparedness was positively associated with higher income and education, a male household head, the presence of an older adult, and non-welfare recipience. welfare recipience mediated the association of disaster preparedness with the presence of a person with a disability at home, socioeconomic status, and race. this analysis strengthens the hypothesis that welfare recipience could potentially mediate disaster preparedness capabilities among households, pointing to a probable shock absorber effect that can offset vulnerabilities experienced by communities. 37. title: effective affordable housing strategies for the urban poor in nigeria authors: timothy akinwande, eddie c.m. hui, karien dekker abstract: providing affordable housing (ah) in a suitable manner has continued to be a global challenge despite various research attempts and policy interventions, suggesting a need for innovativeness in affordable housing provision. review of literature exposes a mismatch between ah demand and what is supplied. a pragmatic approach to ah provision warrants an investigation of the urban poor, being targets of ah interventions. to achieve this, this study examined the urban poor to diligently explore their informal housing strategies. 40 randomly selected respondents were interviewed from the 5 strata of largest slums in lagos, nigeria. following a descriptive, content and thematic analyses of data, findings are that there are concealed and untapped resources within the housing strategies of the urban poor that may inform suitable affordable housing provision approaches. findings are that suitable rent for housing the urban poor should not exceed $9 per month, rental housing is more suitable for the urban poor than homeownership, incremental housing, use of cheaper construction materials, adopting alternative housing approaches such as shared housing, convertible homes and hostels are suitable housing construction strategies. suitable housing financing strategies will be modifying their existent housing finance means among other essential findings. this study provides insights into informally devised housing strategies of settlers in the slums of lagos. data from this study may benefit policymakers and are useful for future studies on pro-poor housing provision. study recommended that the informal strategies of the urban poor can be improved, institutionalized and incorporated into housing policies to achieve effective and sustainable affordable housing provision for the urban poor in developing economies. 38. title: crouching beliefs, hidden biases: the rise and fall of growth narratives authors: reda cherif, marc engher, fuad hasanov abstract: the debate among economists about an optimal growth recipe has been the subject of competing �narratives.� we identify-four major growth narratives using the text analytics of imf country reports over 1978�2019. the narrative �economic structure��services, manufacturing, and agriculture�has been on a secular decline overshadowed by the �structural reforms��competitiveness, transparency, and governance. we observe the rise and fall of the �washington consensus��privatization and liberalization�and the rise to dominance of the �washington constellation,� a collection of many disparate terms such as productivity, tourism, and inequality. we interpret these changes through the lens of a nexus of the changing pool of economic ideas, the power structure within organizations, and the shocks that trigger a shift of narratives and their translation into policies. 39. title: advancing un digital cooperation: lessons from environmental policy and governance authors: daria gritsenko abstract: the digital age brings great promise for human development. yet, the benefits of digital technology can only be realised by mobilising global cooperation to close persistent digital divides and address the harms, risks, and uncertainties of digitalisation. to date, the global digital landscape is dominated by private technology companies and a few governments of technologically advanced countries, while less developed countries and civil society actors effectively have no voice. the goal of the united nations�s (un) digital cooperation initiative is to maximise the benefits and minimise the costs of digital transformation while ensuring that no-one is left behind. the un�s digital cooperation identifies the main directions for action but also acknowledges that persistent governance gaps undermine its cooperation efforts. this paper argues that we can learn how to improve global cooperation to govern the digital space by drawing on experiences from global environmental governance. based on an extensive literature review, i show how existing governance gaps in global digital cooperation can be analysed and addressed. specifically, i focus on the implications for the un and identify which roles and functions it could take. online misinformation is used as a compelling illustration of how lessons derived from environmental governance can inform responses to digital problems. the paper outlines an agenda that can set un digital cooperation on a path towards success in mitigating the uncertainties the digital future will bring. 40. title: supply chains in times of crisis: evidence from kenya�s production network authors: peter wankuru chacha, benard kipyegon kirui, verena wiedemann abstract: trading relationships between suppliers and buyers play a key role in transmitting both local and international shocks. we use transaction-level data from kenya to study the relevance of a firm�s domestic network position and links to international supply chains in determining its trajectory during the covid-19 crisis. we document that firms with high exposure to import and export markets tend to be larger, older, and employ more workers. the specialisation of direct importers, often intermediaries, on international markets made them very vulnerable to the initial covid-19 shock. exporters, one-third of whom operate in primary sectors, experienced a less severe decline in sales. we find that both importers and exporters adjust their domestic supply chains in response to international trade shocks � before and during the crisis alike. sourcing from international markets does not crowd out domestic purchases, while sales abroad and at home can act as substitutes. diversified domestic supply chains helped firms to mitigate the impact of the covid-19 crisis and recover more strongly. 41. title: global value chains and firms� environmental performance authors: samuel siewers, inmaculada mart�nez-zarzoso, leila baghdadi abstract: this paper analyzes the link between joining global value chains (gvcs) and firms� environmental performance. based on new survey data for firms in countries in central asia, eastern europe, and mena, we use propensity score matching (psm) to compare similar companies that differ in terms of gvc participation. our results show that firms that enter gvcs perform better across several environmental indicators. in particular, these firms are more likely to adopt environmentally friendly production technologies, comply with more demanding standards and regulations and, in the case of manufacturing firms, monitor co2 emissions along their supply chains. moreover, by combining psm with difference-in-differences, we find that becoming active in gvcs is also linked to more efficient energy use. our results are stronger for firms in non-eu countries, and highlight the importance of environmental regulation in ensuring that global supply chains go hand in hand with greener production. 42. title: impact of industrial logging concession on deforestation and forest degradation in the drc authors: colas chervier, arimat�a c. ximenes, blaise-pascal ntirumenyerwa mihigo, charles doumenge abstract: the congo basin is home to the second largest tropical humid forest in the world and an important participant in climate change mitigation. while the democratic republic of congo (drc) boasts the largest proportion of congo basin forests, it is also the main contributor to forest loss. industrial logging concession is a forest management model that is likely to expand in the drc in the coming years as the government recently announced the probable end of the 2002 moratorium on logging concessions. it is thus crucial to understand whether this model can further the drc�s deforestation reduction efforts. the literature suggests that the effect of titling forestland on avoided deforestation and forest degradation is generally limited, unless environmental restrictions are enforced. the drc�s 2002 forest code introduced a new logging concession model that includes requirements to submit and implement forest management plans (fmp) and increase benefit-sharing with communities. our paper evaluates the impact of this new model of concession contracts signed in 2011 and 2014 on deforestation and forest degradation. we use remotely sensed data series to estimate difference-in-difference models. we ensured baseline parallel trends in deforestation and similarity in baseline characteristics between control and treated units. we find no evidence that deforestation and forest degradation is significantly different between logging concessions and control areas, even for concessions that had their fmp accepted. our study highlights the need for evaluating the impact of fmps once they are fully implemented, the importance to improve degradation outcome variables and to conduct complementary studies analyzing impact pathways. 43. title: inviting oversight: effects of forest certification on deforestation in the brazilian amazon authors: pushpendra rana, erin o. sills abstract: in the american tropics, logging is almost always highly selective, leaving most of the forest standing and available for future harvest under sustainable forest management. however, forest that has been logged is often more accessible to deforestation agents such as farmers. thus, areas legally designated for sustainable forest management in reality may be more susceptible to illegal deforestation. third-party certification of sustainable forest management is one strategy for protecting such forest. in this paper, we estimate the effect of certification by the forest stewardship council (fsc) on deforestation, drawing on data from the years 2001 to 2019. we observe strong selection effects resulting in systematic differences between certified forest areas and other forest areas designated for sustainable forest management, and we find that after controlling for those selection effects, inviting oversight by fsc reduces the probability of deforestation. our study design compares forests �treated� with fsc certification to �control� forests designated for sustainable forest management but not (yet) certified in the two brazilian states of par� and rond�nia. adopting pixel-based analyses, we first create a matched sample of treated and control pixels and then estimate glmm models, with two-way fixed effects (twfe) models as a robustness check. we find that where forest managers have obtained certification and thus invited oversight by fsc auditors, rates of forest loss are lower (although the results are not fully robust across regions). the estimated effects vary across regions, likely due to varying socioeconomic and policy contexts and competing land uses. we conclude that especially in settings of low governance capacity and high deforestation pressure, certification can contribute to long-term forest conservation by reducing deforestation rates. 44. title: how clientelism undermines state capacity: evidence from mexican municipalities authors: ana l. de la o abstract: does clientelism perpetuate the weak state capacity that characterizes many young democracies? prior work explains that clientelistic parties skew public spending to private goods and under-supply public goods. building on these insights, this article argues that clientelism creates a bureaucratic trap. governments that rely on clientelism invest in labor-intensive, low-skilled bureaucracies that can design and implement relatively more straightforward distributive policies. although such bureaucracies are useful to win some elections, they lack the administrative capacity to sustain economic and human development. empirically, the article examines the wage structure of municipal bureaucracies as a proxy for the personnel�s education and skills in mexico between 2012 and 2018. during this period, turnover in the party in power in municipalities was frequent, a situation that also allows investigating how resilient the bureaucratic trap is to increased competition. the results show that all political parties invest in labor-intensive, low-skilled bureaucracies. however, the bureaucratic trap has a different grip on the institutional revolutionary party (pri), a quintessential clientelistic party, compared to other parties. after an electoral turnover, pri�s bureaucracies have a larger proportion of low-wage personnel compared to the bureaucracies of other parties. moreover, after an electoral turnover, the pri allocates more resources to social assistance, subsidies, and internal transfers that are more conducive to clientelism. the overall size of the bureaucracy and the total wage bill are not affected in the same way, suggesting that there is indeed a trade-off between hiring lower and higher skilled employees. while prior work has proposed other clientelism-induced negative equilibria, this article offers a more direct path from clientelism to state capacity. the results help explain why more fiscal resources, political competition, and demand-side strategies to fight vote buying are insufficient and underscore the importance of civil service reform to tame clientelism. 45. title: urban social movements and local state capacity authors: benjamin h. bradlow abstract: studies of social movements generally focus on the mechanisms through which movements affect the political will of states. much of this research, in turn, implicitly assumes that the state has the capacity to realize the decisions adopted as a result of movement action. focusing on local governments in young democracies, this article examines whether and how state capacities contribute to movement-initiated policy change and associated delivery in the sphere of housing and land use. it analyzes contrasting cases of local state capacities using a paired �most-similar� comparison of two megacities of the global south, each of which underwent transitions to democracy in the past three decades: s�o paulo, brazil, and johannesburg, south africa. in s�o paulo, state capacities facilitated policy success. these capacities were developed through interactions between movements and key bureaucratic allies. in johannesburg, by contrast, the local bureaucracy became both impervious to movement pressure and unable to counter strategies by business elites to weaken efforts at policy reform. state capacity in this case hindered reforms. as a result, in s�o paulo, sequential, reinforcing feedback loops of city-wide movement mobilization and formal policy reforms took shape. in johannesburg, lack of openness of the state to civil society led grassroots movement organizations to refrain from city-wide policy reform efforts and to increasingly organize their activity at the neighborhood and street levels. 46. title: the place of religious inequalities within international development and humanitarian response frameworks: lessons from iraq authors: rachel sabates-wheeler, jeremy p. barker abstract: within the international development and humanitarian arenas no one disagrees with the language and aspirations of inclusion, protection, rights and equality. yet, most development framings � policy and operational � have still to develop meaningful ways to attend to the specific advantages or disadvantages associated with religious views or beliefs that shape the way people and communities function and behave within society. this paper explores influential conceptual and programmatic framings of international development and humanitarian response, specifically the human development approach, capital and asset-based framings, horizontal inequalities, the sdgs and humanitarian principles. we analyse the extent to which they engage with considerations of religious inequalities (religious diversity, identity, inclusion) and language of �religion� and belief. drawing on an evidenced-based case study of humanitarian/development responses in iraq in the period from 2014 to 2019, the paper illustrates the reality of how a smorgasbord of religion-blind development concepts and framings interplay at the frontline of a humanitarian response to conflict, and the ways in which multiple actors wrestle and flex to design, target and implement programmes that were conceived in a religion-blind frame. the research shows how the explicit incorporation of the context and nature of religious diversity dynamics into frameworks has critical real-world impacts on the design, delivery, monitoring and impacts of interventions. failing to incorporate an understanding of inequalities experienced by people marginalized because of their religious affiliation or belief (whether intentional or through mere oversight) has very likely muted the hoped-for outcomes of many development and emergency response initiatives. our hope is that international development and humanitarian framings can better deliver on their objective to �leave no one behind� by ensuring inequalities on account of religious identity or practice are appropriately considered. 47. title: female education and marriage in pakistan: the role of financial shocks and marital customs authors: sarah khan abstract: this project aims to explore the effect of wealth shocks on education and marriage for young women in pakistan. financial shocks are used to estimate the probability of dropping out of education and into marriage. using the pakistan rural household panel survey for the years 2000�10, the effects of financial shocks on the probability of dropping out of education and into marriage are estimated for boys and girls in rural areas. second, the returns to education in the marriage market are estimated using information on marital payments of dowry and brideprice. lastly, the intergenerational effects of women�s increased bargaining power due to marital assets is estimated. the results show wealth shocks do not have a gendered effect on school dropout. also, adverse shocks during the teenage years do not increase the probability of early marriage. however, this relationship is negative in villages where marital payments are typically higher�that is, marriage costs can delay early marriage in shock-hit households as they are more credit-constrained. lastly, higher educated women receive more marital assets, which can contribute to increased bargaining power within the marriage. this increased bargaining power also has intergenerational effects on children�s schooling. 48. title: forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: evidence from eight new studies authors: emily myers, audrey sacks, juan f. tellez, erik wibbels abstract: millions of people around the world are forcibly displaced. one consequence of displacement is that it brings large numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons into contact with members of �host� communities with whom they might otherwise have little opportunity to interact. such contact has the capacity to transform social and economic life among both host communities and f$%'.1234567@��ʸ�ʧʸ��zf^qqc5h�|�h�|�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(hf�5�cjojqj^jajh@ t5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj h��5�cjojqj^jajo(#hf�hf�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h�|�h�|�5�cjojqj^jaj456�� b��#��e f � � �$�$��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4�� &'.abk��̿層��~�p~��`p~��`phvi�h�l$5�ojqj^jo(h�l$h�l$5�ojqj^jh�l$5�ojqj^jo(hj�5�ojqjo(hiht4ojqj^jo(h�|�h�|�ojqj^jhihj�ojqj^jo(ht45�ojqj^jo(h�|�h�|�5�ojqj^jhicy5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jhj�5�ojqj^jo(!kl��"#,-aaa��˾��}��}�obbbbbbhy�hy�ojqj^jh�)hto�ojqj^jo(hvi�hto�5�ojqj^jo(hy�hy�5�ojqj^jhto�hto�5�ojqj^jhto�hto�h�"�h�`�5�ojqj^jhto�5�ojqj^jo(h%j,5�ojqjo(hihu<�ojqj^jo(h�|�h�|�ojqj^jhih�l$ojqj^jo(&aa�� d e ��ylllllllllll^hvi�h%j,ojqj^jo(h i�h i�ojqj^jh�)h$?�ojqj^jo(hvi�h$?�5�ojqj^jo(h i�h i�5�ojqj^jh$?�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h$?�5�ojqj^jh�"�h%j,5�ojqj^jhs/�5�ojqj^jo(h%j,5�ojqjo(hihanojqj^jhy�hy�ojqj^j e f g i o p s � � � � � � � � !s!"s"#s#$s$�$�$�$�$�$�$�$��达��辠��wwwwwwwwwi�\�n\hr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jhr7a5�ojqj^jo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(hhdvhhdvojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hvi�h�ps5�ojqj^jhhdvhhdv5�ojqj^jh�psh�ps5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�ps5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(�$%%% %!%:%k%l%t%u%v%�%&�&'�'(�()�)�)�)�)�)�)�)��񷩩��uhzlhh|�h|�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh|�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(h�$�h�$�ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hvi�hvi�5�ojqj^jhr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jhvi�hr7a5�ojqj^jh�$�h�$�5�ojqj^j�$%l%�)�)5*e*�0�061f1�5�8�8�8'9�<�<e=�=`eae�e�e�h�h��gd�s�gd�_gdlz�gd�?gd�)ggd|�gd)w�gdr7a�)*%*4*5*>*d*e*n*o*�* � ,�,-�-.�./�/0�0�0�0�0�0�0�0�0��ŷ��vhzvh�)gh�)g5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�)g5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(hk )hk )ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h|�h|�5�ojqj^jhvi�h|�5�ojqj^jhk )hk )5�ojqj^j�01 15161>1?1e1f1o1p12l23l34l45l5�5�56k67k78k8�8�8�8�8��񸪜��sh[hr5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(h�?h�?ojqj^jo(h�?h�?ojqj^jhih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�)g5�ojqj^jo(h�)gh�)g5�ojqj^jhvi�h�)g5�ojqj^jhl$�hl$�5�ojqj^j�8�8�8�8�8�8�899&9'90919�9:�:;�;<�<�<�<�<�<�<�<��ⱥ��ȫ��sh[�mh�_h�_5�ojqj^jhr5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(h�?h�?ojqj^jhih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hvi�hlz�5�ojqj^jh�?h�?5�ojqj^jhlz�5�ojqj^jo(hlz�hlz�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^j�<�<=d=e=n=�=�=�=�=>u>?u?@u@auabubcucdude_e`eaeceeeke��幫��wj\nh�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h�s�h�s�ojqj^jhih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�_h�_5�ojqj^jhvi�h�_5�ojqj^jh�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh�_5�ojqj^jo(kele�e�e�e�e�e�e�e�eyf�fyg�gyh�h�h�h�h�h�h�h�h=i>ifi��ɻ嫝��ti�[��m��h,,7h,,75�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(h.-h.-ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h[h[5�ojqj^jh�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh[h�s�5�ojqj^jh.-h.-5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(�h>ihi�m�mn>nqqrq�qr�w�w'xhxl\m\�\�\�a�aeb�b�f�f^gtg��gd�7agd �gdmw�gd)w�gd�s�figiyigihiqiri�iyj�jyk�kyl�lym�m�m�m�m�m�m�m�mnnn=n>ngnhn��ŷ��vh�zlhz�ŷh[h�s�5�ojqj^jhn]hn]5�ojqj^jh�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h�~�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(h,,7h,,7ojqj^jhih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h,,7h,,75�ojqj^jh�9�h[5�ojqj^jhnyn>oyo>pyp>qpqqqrqsqtqvqyq\q]q�q�q�q�q rrrryr�rys�syt�tyu��{��k]o��hih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h[hmw�5�ojqj^jhn]hn]5�ojqj^jhmw�5�ojqj^jo(hmw�hmw�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(hn]hn]ojqj^jyu�uyv�vyw�w�w�w�w�w�w�w�w�wx&x'x0xyxgxhxqxrx��Ϳ��s��cughih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh$?�h �5�ojqj^jo(hmw�h �5�ojqj^jh[h �5�ojqj^jh`mh`m5�ojqj^jh �5�ojqj^jo(h �h �5�ojqj^jh �h �h�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(hn]hn]ojqj^jrxyyyzyz[y[\k\l\m\o\q\w\x\y\m\�\�\�\�\�\]]y]��Ϳ��x�hzl?hmthmtojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hmw�h �5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hmthmt5�ojqj^jh �5�ojqj^jo(h �h �5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(h`mh`mojqj^jy]^y^_y_`y`aya�a�a�a�a�a�a�ahbybdbebnb�b�b�b�bocycodydoeye��Ϳ��x�h�zmmmmmmhn hn ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hmw�hjmi5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hn hn 5�ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(hmthmtojqj^jyeofyf�f�f�f�f�f�f�fugyg]g^gggsgtg}g~g�gyh�hyi�iyj�jyk�kyl�lym��Ϳ��x�h�zmmmmmmmmmmmmh�a;h�a;ojqj^jhih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�7a5�ojqj^jo(hmw�h�7a5�ojqj^jh�r�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�a;h�a;5�ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(hn hn ojqj^jym�m�m�m�m�m�mnn8nynanbnkn�n�n�n�n�nyo�oyp�pyq�qyr�rys�s�s�s��Ϳ��xj\ooooooooooo��h�i�h�i�ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�r�h�z25�ojqj^jh�i�h�i�5�ojqj^jh�z25�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�z25�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h�r�h)w�ojqj^jo(h�a;h�a;ojqj^jtg�m�mbn�n�s�sft�t=y>y�y�y�� b�èĉ�:�p�q��a�b�ە��gd�^�gd�e=gd�z2gd)w��s�s�s�s�s;tetftntotyt�t�t�t�tyuhuyvhvywhwyxhxy@ybyhy��ʼ��ʼ��׌�tgykh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hmhmojqj^jhmkxh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jo("h�r�h)w�5�ojqj\�^jajhmhm5�ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(hyiyyy�y�y�y�y�y�y�y7zyz7{y{n|�|n~�~�7�y�7�y�߁��巩��uhzl�h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�r�h�e=ojqj^jo(h�h�h�h�ojqj^jh}onh�e=ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(hmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�h�h�h�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(�� a�b�k�l�y�;�y�;�y�;�y�;�y�;�y�;�y�èĉƈȉέψ��ŷ��tf��xh|�h|�5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(hgeh�e=ojqj\�^jo(hgehgeojqj\�^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jhgehge5�ojqj^j��&�'�9�:�c�d�y��y��y��y��o�p�q�s�u�y�[�\��ƍ�� y��ŵ�ӧ��q��asŵ�ӧ�hmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h|�h�^�ojqj\�^jo(h|�h|�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h|�h|�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^j"h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jaj �y��y��y��y��y��y��y�`�a�b�d�f�l�m�ڕە��"�#�9�y�9�y�9�y�9�y��˽��vh�zzzzzzzzhk>�hk>�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jhk>�hk>�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�r�h�^�ojqj^jo(h|�h|�ojqj\�^j#ە��{��۠~��.�v�u�v��j�ݶ޶��[�\��(��gd�^�gd�e=y�9�y��%�&�y�z�{��b�y�b�y�b�y�b�y��ⱥ��o��_tⱥ�h�e=5�ojqjo(hk>�h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo("h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jajhk>�hk>�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�^�h�e=ojqj^jo(h�^�h�^�ojqj^jo(hk>�hk>�ojqj\�^j ��y��ڠ۠��y�֡y�֢y�֣y�֤y�֥y�֦y�֧y�}�~��巩󛛛��ugy�h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�r�h�e=ojqj^jo(h1c�h1c�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(hmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h1c�h1c�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(��-�.�7�u�v�y�_�`�ʃy�ƪy�ƫy�ƭy�ƭy�ʈy�ưy�t�u�v�x�z��ŷ��vh��zh�r h�r 5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�r�h�e=ojqj^jo(hc�hc�ojqj\�^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jhc�hc�5�ojqj^j��5�i�j�s�t�y��y��y��y��y��y��ܶݶ޶��y��ŵ�ӧ��q��ccsh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h;6�h;6�5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�r h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h�r h�r ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�r h�r 5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^j"h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jaj��y��y��y��y��y��y��y��y�z�[�\�^�`�f�g��ÿ��tf�xh'x�h'x�5�ojqj^jh�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h;6�h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h;6�h;6�ojqj\�^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h;6�h;6�5�ojqj^jhmw�h�e=5�ojqj^j��'�(�0�1�2�<�y�<�y�<�y�<�y��$�%�y�g�h�q��ŷ��|n�a�o�a��ŷ"h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jajh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�r�h�e=ojqj^jo(h'x�h'x�ojqj\�^jh'x�h'x�h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h'x�h'x�5�ojqj^jh�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^j�h��v��w�x��s��]��:�;��h�x��d�]��gd�e=q�r��y��y��y��y��y�� 5�y�u�v��ʽ��󓓓�ugw��h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�gbh�gb5�ojqj^jhmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�>�h�>�5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h'x�h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h'x�h'x�ojqj\�^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(��y��y��y��y�v�w�x�z�|��"�#�@�y�@�y�@�y�@�y�@�y�@�y�@�y�@�y��ɻ��tf��h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�gbh�gb5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�gbh�e=ojqj\�^jo(h�gbh�gbojqj\�^j(��r�s�u�y�[�\�]��&�y�&�y�&�y�&�y��y�\��̿��̿��̿��q��̿cchz))hz))5�ojqj^jh5u�h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h5u�h5u�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo("h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jajh5u�h5u�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(!\�]�f��y��y��y��y��y��y��9�:�;�=�?�e�f�y��ķ��sew�iih�e6h�e65�ojqj^jh�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(hz))h�e=ojqj\�^jo(hz))hz))ojqj\�^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(hz))hz))5�ojqj^jhmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(��y��y��y��y��y��y��y��g��ŷ��tf��xh�h�5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�e6h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h�e6h�e6ojqj\�^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�e6h�e65�ojqj^jh�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jg�h�p�q�y�w�x��y��y��y��c�d�m�y��ŵ�ӧ��q��csechmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�=0h�=05�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h�h�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�h�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^j"h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jajy�\�]�f�g��y��y��y��y��y��y�r�s�t�v�x�~��ƹ��t�fxtf��h�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jhj�hj�5�ojqj^jh�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h�=0h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h�=0h�=0ojqj\�^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�=0h�=05�ojqj^j]�s�t��d�e��=��uv�ij��%&a~pq� ��gdj<gd�e=�x�y�x�y�x�y�x�y�x�y�c�d�e�g�i�o�p��y��y��y��y��ɻ��p��bbbbbbbbbhk�hk�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo("h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jajhk�hk�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(hgqh�e=ojqj\�^jo(hgqhj�ojqj\�^j"��<�=�f�y��y�y�y�y�y�y�ytuv��ʼ��s��eeeeeeeeeeeeeeew�h�r�h�e=ojqj^jo(hk�hk�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(hmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(hk�hk�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(hk�h�e=ojqj\�^jo(vxz��y�y�y � y � y�y�y � yhijlntu��ʼ�׼��ʂ��rg��yh6h65�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqjo(h�i�h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h�i�h�i�ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�i�h�i�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh7�5�ojqj^jo("��99999999$%&(*01`aj}��ŵ�ӧ��qc�uc�h�r�hj<5�ojqj^jh�z2hj<5�ojqj^jh�"�hj<5�ojqj^jhj<5�ojqj^jo(h�e=5�ojqjo(h6h�e=ojqj\�^jo(h6h6ojqj\�^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h6h65�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^j"h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jaj}~��opqsu{|��* 45�� !�"�#�$�%6&7&8&:&��ƿ�՞�ր~��ր��ppppppppp`��h p�hj<ojqj\�^jo(h p�h p�ojqj\�^j"h�r�hj<5�ojqj\�^jajh p�h p�5�ojqj^jh�"�hj<5�ojqj^jhj<5�ojqjo(h6hj<ojqj\�^jo(h6h6ojqj\�^jhj<5�ojqj^jo(h$?�hj<5�ojqj^jh$?�hj<5�ojqj^jo(% 7&8&�&�&� � ,a,�� gd�gd)w�gdj<:&<&b&c&p&�&�&�&�&�&�&�&�'�(�)�*� � � � � � � � ,, ,),`,��ȸ�ț�֌��~s��e�wwiewh�r�hj<5�ojqj^jhf"hf"5�ojqj^jh�z2hj<5�ojqj^jhj<5�ojqjo(h�r�hj<ojqj^jo(h p�h p�ojqj\�^jh$?�hj<5�ojqj^jo(hmw�hj<5�ojqj^jh�r�hj<5�ojqj^jo(h p�h p�5�ojqj^jhj<5�ojqj^jo(h$?�hj<5�ojqj^jh�"�hj<5�ojqj^j`,a,j,k,�,�-�� ǵ��h�.'jh�.'uhj<hj<5�ojqjo(hf"hj<ojqj\�^jo(uhf"hf"ojqj\�^jhj<5�ojqj^jo(h$?�hj<5�ojqj^jh$?�hj<5�ojqj^jo(orcibly displaced persons, yet we have relatively scant evidence of how communities change in response to displacement. in this special issue introductory essay, we provide an overview of forced displacement as a phenomenon and review the state of knowledge on displacement and social cohesion. we then synthesize findings from nine new studies included in this issue, which bring forth new evidence from over 30 countries across the globe. we conclude with implications for policy and development efforts. 01�82p��. ��a!�"�#��$��%��s��x2�� 0@p`p��2(�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p��8x�v~�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@66666pj_hmh nhsh thj`��jck�e$1$a$ cjkh_hajmh nhsh th$a ��$؞��k=�w[sobi��bnf�h��c��ݓ�v�u�a ��6f��͌�n�|q�sax\�� >�8��o��( �b\�'x�77?��ڐ!��@5?�2�xy}xf�kp��gh�%v�ވ�� b��׫��|��g_��9�ѣ`(�b-�)�(��b"�{g��|07`�]�p�eb�_�?��1�r��!��?s��`��m�-�ʥ�v�_�\ĵ��j��ns.��j�4��cw��\ zxc��筲��/-��x��kp�//��z�֯a)��_�bj��p��5f�� cf��r�]]�*�q� yv)c�e��c��p@�$�=9i��!�_��vhb�%(fv��va ��ߒ��602�- "�o�9idͿ z}r��'�=y��s�z�%��{��w�<��wo�~��omͩv�{��_�8}��:�oq�3�]a��c�.�`��/&� 1%��@�) �-z� �ȁ�cۏ�9t��"� �x��;adw�uɲ^��ln��m��m�]��\�(��'pb�ke#��b�c�{l��cw��k�� 6��q��kzv6�b�$��l\!ޖov�{uf]�n�# ��]l-7�bc�"��.��$c�΄�m\kh�t�)�z,�kf��~��apܜaߥ��frif.�;�1�d�f��ą�84��(��t�w��k��>�v�ϯ��qw��[�y�ۙ�!®r��#��nq�̎�8�r{c��c�ާu�x>�i��lcwb�fv��f�n�a�ll ��\ᙠ8b|��=��v��>�l��i��}:��^�� dvs��n��<�<��s<� �/,�ݔy�o��z��"��-�x��ets�bc��~h�0�pd�<��f��7��q��sg��qǭتut�ւ��fn~�i0> �l�d��cy,xw#��h��g�e�� lܸd|0��d��uޑ��c�h�ϐpڑ�w�>��ufіe%��=qv��q�90`��ǚ��ȱ��r��@x pf��]6h�:�eu��vv�d�^(g�pl%st��e�5�@��(ً�0��$�$��e�$}�ns��;{/,�,� ��p-�jyt��k~�" �q0�t��pϣ��>#�̙v��=ˀ<��ݥ�v�h[$�t�ih��o��-x��j�<4.��<�=� mr �q��.��5��qͯ��!e�(��c82��q�#�w.dx�җ<}�/sy.d�0u�.:i5��ܣ$��j�yh�k��v\��[��򡑃��a��!�k3�ɗ�tz >�λz��`%��n88�zt��"h�r��8 ^so� � y�s�izv�wq:��ud�m;�y�s�.�}��j�d�{�j��s�n�u��ү{��q4�iu�5�u̲0ks��\�7x�\5��i�/��z77'd]��u��j�1��b�x�u͞�ڽc��3��iu�2s;緬g8��:?��g-, gs��~un��f�c(m�r�t jxi�d=�dec�n��pk! ѐ��'theme/theme/_rels/thememanager.xml.rels��m �0��wooӻ�&݈э��5 6?$q�� ,.�a��i��c2�1h�:�q��m��@rn��;d�`��o7�g�k(m&$r(.1�r'j��њt��8��v�"��aȼ�h�u}��|�$�b{��p��8�g/]�qasم(��#��l�[��pk-!��[content_types].xmlpk-!�֧��60_rels/.relspk-!ky��theme/theme/thememanager.xmlpk-!�r��theme/theme/theme1.xmlpk-! ѐ��'� theme/theme/_rels/thememanager.xml.relspk]� �%#�� ke �$�)�0�8�<kefihnyurxy]yeym�shy��y��q��\��g�y��v�}:&`, ��$�htgە�]� ��@� @��h ��0�( � ��0�( � ��b �s�� ?�/3'-oxiv ( � � >k ��_b��ad!(/6g"n"]"d"!1&1z4�4n5u5\5c5u5|5�=�=�=�=�=�=oawaff0f6f�i�i�i�i�i�i�i�i�ijj jvlwl8p=p>pcpnpvp�t�t�t�ttz|zkfnfofvfxf~ff�fnltlul{l�q�q�q�qx&x.x4x:xax{{||ow܃��>�g��9�b�s�|��ʕ��җږm�u�7�>�?�d�k�u�� %� �,�5�6�;��$�c�i��#�$�'�4�:�>�e��q�\��r�x�y��{��v�\�c�i�s�\��x�f�b�k��l�t�v�^�y��_l� � �� 7=��y"`"�%�%�%�%�%�%�%�%�%45ad�%�%$:.:��*�%�%333336�%�%�%�%�%�%�%�%�%�%�%'.23`=`=��u��v��#��r�\��\�f��9�f��g�q�w��c�m�\�g�r��c�p��<�f��t��hu��$ 1 ` j } � o|�*56c��!�!")"`"k"�%�%�%�%��q04e��n[g],-�o��`<|��o";0ri1�%�rrsui��w�i�={u�,� uz*�m� �r=��-9h�s��eme�.~�� {r�v�4�1l2q �"�iaha��og>�u��`�1_%v��nh{��q��u�3�d]-�z:kkkkn;�q0�<�?*�7��:a��^b� �l{��2h�(�#!�q��m4-cqrrs�4>�p]�sao-�?��yn�b~i�(��)ib5f��>!]�.�` rv:g&>!��}n!�l��2�"�0r��\�|�md-%;�blrbr]�a 6ji� ��vj�`�[jo 5j90�ry �:[� k 3q-r�jx 8i� tp� k�|�2~� ��y��k� ?i�� *�?=��#??*�@�4le�dw" ��z�g�kd�2�^e�-h�5h�x�w��t�bs &�x�-z�y��w�i�>�:-��u kkkkdw" q�x�-h� k^r� �^�vxb� �=#�/y�pur �� 'ff�x-z�d�y�(��)fk{z��fv��-�p�'�e��4�!~q�2h`�?i��be��@��fk-<"��l�q�u��y/�x{��]^�~76=&��` [� ��rh&<�^��oc!��d{�/�"��[��h�2��d��t��w�8i� (f�tl(��}�t�a9�~�8��7l��4�";�g)n��p7v}g�xd|��&�h�w�a�g�b�u�d\*�)#jb�l�d� )r�}��w�gl$l��r�qh� v��/xcz.�^m~;�|p%�fzps7l�ps�#��<>)��s��vj��h5h 5� a�l[�x� xcz�be�yfdxl�y��raj>�n�cr%v��h�a9�� !`��}<�q�}q =�7y]��r�-��.��zf�7�� e�o[kh,~�hmpm~�mg�=�j��>m�?[%��'w�jo8�l�y2\gqwez ��p]74�`a��m�!�|z��z:�*��b!�g;cq�qq�h�nk^r a�x�t an�gap�y8��x��s��d��z��j�vzq��t\ ~��av'po�_m4�i�w��tkpb�` rq1��yn�pur �p}�� urep�&>!�z[fxx)!�b!x{�ec!�t�k��oc!�v�>b(p!� ]!�3�l��!nr�q�m�!�j#�g-�!�f�d�[z"�u&z�6'�"�zy�q �"ji�_��m�"� ]!�&�"�)��/�"|z�s\�"=v�g��~#�)9~��k#�� i3#�#?�=#�i\;�j#p%�sh�#��2k�#�|�#ry �ps�#pb��9�#�sa�d $��yj!4$�`�%�qg$�ep$�"e<@v�$:*�$�[��p�$�]'��?[>�?z]%�`�%vd�i1�%�lyk-,�%�,�=��l�%�z�@�x�%�!0��e&poq�bs &�b*&t�(6=&�'w�rh&2\�qp&nyvc��t�&��&�]'�ep$�tw�'~d:(�r�'�kl��>�'��5�l�'�taz��w(r�@�~d:(�_(it~tl(�x�,�dm�(�t�(�pi�(��]�a#�(�j�`�<>)^e��w)!,�f��)�l�%��)mq{�"*�^�i��le*^l�x�ne*n9��^�*�:8t��[? �v ��o�(s� qh� �`� q�f�� {p��c,@�i��#,�dq[mk, @p�qb,�d&d��,�>m��x�,�{u�,�@�q>,-�m4-rt�h�fk-�r�-�j�n�2@�-�ggc��-x*�y��->o.-dt��t�.��z]�.�x��h/<}7/d|��y/ds}��/: o=tj�/0�u0{z�o�!0�ran 0gy|�5j90�$�}�;1�0��efw2 �z��>2"o�m�29!"e�w�2�f\�h�2n�~�w�3ui�� 3dj�u�3��x@�4�;�4�d5��p�4@l�5h 5�^b^�m5 -a5�pv5�d5tw�'��5��5md-�b�5i�d��v�5 -a5�a 6�`d�#6ghch�81�6�&7��6�a�r!�6q1��@�6xx�6)1:t�&7�x�\�~74\�7bd9t=r�7��gr f8c�]��jo8�~�8��8��b�n9?oi�q�9�a:�kx_�s�:kkkk�3�:�!�q�o";�4mjjo;�i\;�%�|c;�q��viu;�ru�;�~7�[u�u�`fr>�>�'i�>r]��v�>lrb�mt?<#iq!{�?p[5=�tf�?�t�&�?�*��o-�?�mt?�s�? u|3e�?�-x{�8�?�@}��*.}@��)��-�@�t�`�r�@g��z�@z]%hag;��:a�s6ay8��doahu�(�a�le*�&e�ana��.�an��a�� c$,&d]�l�d|1�q�i�dbl#g�>e�\��ez�v�n�e�v ��'�e�#�c�hfs�]�=bdf�^^n��z[f�y��f�"�o w~g� l`�#�g�{9=��g=v�g�o�t�{s h�-h�pv5p@h�og�ghch'\l��&�h�t�e�hoaq�!~q��y#%�q@gku�nr�q�q��qqg$�r)b;r�,�q��0hr�l��zwr� {r;1�0��y{r�i�r�� (u�r�$atxcs�#sw/�=fzps8ts)b;r��ts�#�g3%�s�{�s�;�4��g/t�4>�:8t�gn�bd9t]z[t� �m��td $�`�t�s��,!u�rdi�@gku�u0 g�u��uxcs>�uc;�rxyyv�d�^�v4�o�v�j$w�w�w�6�x�m�2:3�x�q�y��x�3�:��o�x�#s^l�x\<�jg�xq>,- q�x�}<��x_/,j�zy��t��`-y<myv��q�yv^mc��y<z�&xfk{z�kd �zhp��[�enx�:[�=�^�` [�0�[(>y��f\�?\i�(��\�m��x�\~�f<1/�\�s��7y]�>aqs�]��c�]hv�i��]viu;�]^ph$^�^b^�`.�^�=�^�1_�kx_�a9�ji�_l{�� !`�qb,�� l`�y`� ��t�`�=�}�j�`�qq��u�`�>�`_m�t a��&na[mk,�9a��q��a��5��>�asq�y�3j�a�zwr�a�t�3b@�z��)ib�u~b1�h��u�b�~#�%;�b@v�$03cd.�b�ggcg-�!�va�c�^��c(�a�u�c�0hr��#�c�j$wvd0q|�`d�d&d�@�m�f�d,-�zn�d�|�#�9!"e2k�#�g e�/e� *^ee��l\e�>e��eme�hgqwe�u �t�edu�efd��&fji�,\f<}7/��zfs{tq�f3%�s!,�fqx{~�fxx�6�a�f6�f<z�bl#g�^blkqg�j9r��g8|k=�z�g�-9h�k?oi�u�<mebi�rdi�b*&��b~i�y{r4�i�`-y�^�ix�u�nf�i�~7djtj�/v,�j�8�?w�j�`�t�=�j�4�q\<�j�dk�g�tkzl!{�?�klv:g��3�l<|�<ie�lj l�^(m��k��.�mz*�ma�� m�hn�y`�gn��!�g)nfr>��^^nv��,mn�kj>�nh#�n�gv'po� ��"�o�"�o6gp�e�oh��.�o�r��v�omg��o]z[thptf�?(ap(s� @p�[? bep=r�7�c�p�qp&��dq�vzq� �<#iq�!�q� ��qq =��,�q�w�#!�q{s h�4�q�a�f�l�q|1�q6s�~r�q3q-rie�l��j9r �3�c;�rn[g� �r�-�@�y0�sb(p!��s{fm-dt�y�)1:to �v�$at�6�x� 0w?0w?0w?0w?�.�t�/e��t(ap�}�t�o�t�u2�&xph$^�enx[�x,mnf�x&xn �x�0�<�=.y6�f�� oyrgox*�y�x�u��yd]-sq�y7��yxl�y�t�.��y];yw��y�w��u&z�*n{��tazr=��whkzjx �.tzji��z@�z�.�o��z�`�o��%�z�q�wv{�nh{$,&d�*n{�s�?mq{ hr{��6�jbs{�-x{qx{�@�6m�{�d��0q|�~�vgy|��s� u|�[|�w)�\�| w~g;�|�g ek�|�.�t�y>�|b�5�ds}xyyv�p}�r>�$�}dm�(�m�}j<�v��=�}jbs{�q�}\ ~�=�h,~03c��)9~whkzit~�;�~j{�~0�n�n�~l�s{t�<(>y\*�4e�z �j�{p�4\�7��(k�i��x��m�j��[w�3`mn]2 r� a �p �r j^��n�_at�?i�wb��.h j<sh`m�tn o>sf"�r#�l$�}&�.'�m'�m(�)k )z))%j,.-�p.�i/�=0�2�z2'4t46.6�e6�6,,7*8;i8cj8�9�a;�<�e=k&>e!@jj@r7a�gb�ec�nd�udgevf0i4tj�kul%mant6ogq r�%s@ tmtmkxgy�py�^ro_5a�7ahc 2e�lf�qf�)gjmi�ckalthllmnnm}on[r�ps0@ui1vhdvywm8xicy�x}�/� p�wt�|�mw��=��=��`�j�nj��r��9�l�.~��s�c�v�l$�=h��j��~�du�� =i�fj�to�4��m��2��3�)w��lz�y��c�7�u<�[��t��r��k��^�v��}��|��\�a�vi�j�5u�|w�'x�r��$?�� !�s/��8�i{�k>�1c�*��-��_��i��$-��8��f�;6�><��r��$��>��c��{�7"��s�?5�}j��"� i�gl�bj�f�h��-��h�� "��[�w�p��n��i�2��y��e�`-�|��%�%�@�3334tv�#�%0@0|0@0(@��unknown��g��.�[x� �times new roman5��symbol3.��.�[x� �arial7.��[ @�verdana;��(�[sosimsun9,��|�8i{�~ light?��|�8i{�~dengxiana��$b�cambria math 1��h;"�f��g�� a-!),.:;?]}�� & 6"0000 00 00000�� =�@�\�]�^��([{� 0 000000��;�[��s%s% 3�q��@p��?��"�2!xx�ng��user sppm-lib01�� oh�� '��0\�� $ 0<dlt�usernormal.dotmsppm-lib01267microsoft office word@��;@�y��\�@��i�� ՜.�� ,��0� x`t|��microsoft�s% !"#$%&'()* ,-./0123456789:;<=>?@abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~�� root entry�� f�2�i��data ��1table��a\worddocument��2�summaryinformation(��documentsummaryinformation8��compobj��n�� fmicrosoft word 97-2003 �ĵ� msworddocword.document.8�9�q